First, don’t rush to applause – 34 countries “bite” Israel, who did it hurt?
The United Nations General Assembly in new york is lively every year, and this year is especially like a hot pot with chili.
On September 26th, two brothers from Colombia and South Africa formed a group of 32 "brothers", bringing together representatives from Turkey, Spain, Qatar, Brazil, Chile, Indonesia, Jordan, Ireland, Mexico, Norway, Saudi Arabia and other countries. The name is quite bluffing-"The Hague Group".
According to the group announcement, 34 countries have proposed legal, diplomatic and economic measures to consolidate "a global response to Israel's ongoing crimes, establish a model for all countries to immediately fulfill their obligations, and create strong accountability mechanisms."
In a word: Israel, you can no longer be “without punishment.”
For a time, the ban on military trade, the rejection of ports, the review of contracts, the cessation of energy, and four rows of strikes like four bricks hit Jerusalem.
Israel's stock and foreign exchange markets were frightened to cry on the spot: the TA-35 index fell for three consecutive days, the shekel depreciated by 2.4%, and the market value evaporated by 18 billion US dollars, which is equivalent to a year's work for nothing for the people of the country.
Some laugh: this is the “The Hague Group”, clearly “share price discount group”.
But don't forget, Israel's most hardcore asset is its "mentality". The Israeli central bank cut its positions in euros and pounds to 25% overnight, turned its head and hugged the thighs of RMB and US dollars tightly, and renewed a US $3 billion local currency swap with China-in a word: save your life first, then your face.
Second, why did you suddenly "encircle"? --Three fuses, burning the global South unable to sit still
Gaza’s “Live Broadcasting Hell”
In six months, 64,000 lives were painted to ash, 70% of whom were women and children. The United Nations Commission of Inquiry threw out a report with the key word naked-"with the intention of extinction". The audience in front of the screen went from anger to numbness and then from numbness to "something has to be done".
2. The "protective umbrella" of the United States is leaking
Washington vetoed the Security Council three times in a row, and the Arab countries were completely chilling: If you can't control it, why don't you let others do it? So I simply started a new stove, took "law + sanctions" as a new weapon, bypassed the veto power, and went directly to the group fight mode.
Adults of the Global South’s “Judicial Diplomacy”
South Africa, Colombia, and Brazil, the former “sanctioned professionals”, now turn into the initiators of sanctions. Over the past thirty years, they have played “truth and reconciliation” at home, and now move the script to the international stage: first to the court, then to the money, and finally to the opponent “social death”.
Israel’s “Counter-Kill” Three-Plane Axis – Fast, Harsh, Accurate
Military: Quickly Cut Out
The Israeli army launched a "pincer-shaped" offensive against Gaza City and opened a "humanitarian corridor" within 48 hours-releasing people on the surface, but in essence "clearing the ground first and then occupying". There is only one goal: to cook raw rice into cooked rice before the ICJ decision hits the ground.
Diplomacy: Opening the bow on the right
To the United States: The Secretary of the War Cabinet flew directly to Washington, reached out for another $14 billion in precision ammunition, and thoughtfully attached an "Iron Beam" laser air defense order-Boss, there will be no price increase if the quantity is increased.
To Europe: Pulling Greece and Cyprus to sign the "Southeast Energy Corridor" wildly, using natural gas as a bargaining chip in exchange for a veto within the EU.
Russia: Privately ask Moscow to "technically shelve" the new sanctions in the Security Council, in exchange for "giving way" in Syrian airspace, and getting what they need.
Finance: Building walls to store food
The central bank adjusted its foreign exchange reserves to the main position of "USD + RMB" in one breath to reduce the risk of being kicked by SWIFT; We also sold European bonds in advance to avoid being "frozen" in the future-the older the Jianghu, the less courageous it is.
In the United States, when “big brother” is difficult, it is harder when “cookie is stuck”
The official line is still sonorous: "Israel's right to self-defense is definitely supported." But careful people find that there are a few small words behind the line-"Deeply disturbed".
A "word game" is brewing on Capitol Hill: changing some precision-guided bombs from "free military aid" to "redeemable loans"-translated into adult words: I'll lend you first, and one day I don't like you, and I'll pay it back with interest. It not only appeases domestic voters, but also gives the Arab world a "I'm disciplining" smiling face.
The more chicken thieves are the White House’s “delaying tactics”: in the ICC court defending “the court has no jurisdiction over the ongoing armed conflict,” can delay a day; on the other hand, to the Gulf countries expressly deliver the THAAD interception system – brothers, don’t rush to the squad and get the gifts first.
5. The big chessboard in the Middle East: How can a "gang fight" kick the old order off the table?
1. Countdown to the battlefield: The Israeli army's "window period" was set on the alarm clock by the court
If the ICJ issues temporary measures early next year, calling for "the cessation of all military operations that may constitute extermination," Israel has only three or four months left to "sprint overtime." Once the arms parts are pinched, the Iron Dome can't make up for it, and the sustainability of the offensive plummets.
The Arab “Avengers Alliance”
The Gulf states activated collective defense clauses, and Egypt proposed the establishment of the “Arab Version of NATO” headquarters in Cairo.In the past 30 years, the Arab coalition’s slogan was “Defend Iran”; today for the first time the mirror was turned against Israel – the historic little boat.
3. A new version of global governance: "judicial + sanctions" plug-in in southern countries
If the 34-country proposal is supported by two-thirds of the UN General Assembly, it is equivalent to telling the world: who will not be accused later, first prosecute the ICC, and then pull a "voluntary alliance" to break his financial path, and the Security Council will not veto or save.
The “Passive Resurrection” Program
In just 48 hours, 10 countries including Britain, France, Canada, and Australia collectively recognized Palestine, bringing the total to 157 countries. The West has stuffed "founding a state first, negotiating later" into Israel's mouth-even if you swallow it, you will have to swallow it. If you don't swallow it, you will be kicked out of the emoticons by the "global group chat".
One operation as hard as a tiger, look at 250 in the future?
The bricks of the 34-country "The Hague Group" have only swollen Israel's stock price and exchange rate at present, but they have not yet hurt their muscles and bones.
But don’t forget that once the “emotions” in the financial markets turn into “trends”, the real wounds will be behind: the expansion of the CDS interest gap, the withdrawal of foreign investment, the breakdown of science and technology projects ...
When "psychological warfare" is upgraded to "capital chain", no matter how hard Israel's "Iron Dome" is, it cannot prevent internal bleeding in the economy.
The more profound impact was on the Middle East order: the United States turned from “the only mediator” to “the embarrassing runner-up,” Arab nations from “their own corn-eating” to “the collective defense,” and the global South from “the subject of sanctions” to “the sanctions designer.”
The old script has been torn apart, and the new drama has just begun.
As for peace, really as netizens say – the “two-country plan” is not back, it is just pushed back by 34 countries to knock on the door.
Whether to open the door or not, the decision is still in Israel's hands; But this time, it is no longer just the United States standing behind the door, but also a group of "classmates from the Global South" with court subpoenas and sanctions lists.
The rule of Jiangsu changed, the fist was less hard than the evidence, and the hole deeper could not stop a paper sentence.