The Middle East has also been rumored, Iran withdrew three ambassadors, the UN Security Council voted to turn the car, a decade of sanctions roll back.
China and Russia furiously criticized it as illegal, but the Federal Republic of England and Germany worked hard to resume sanctions, Iran spoke "will not be silent", and China made the bottom line clear: not allowed to move.
Will this storm, starting with the nuclear issue, eventually burn into military conflict?
Sanctions Returns, Iran Reveals ‘Combined Fist’
This time, Iran was really angry.
On September 26, the United Nations Security Council Hall dropped a heavy-pound bomb. The draft resolution extended Iran sanctions exemption proposed jointly by China and Russia, with only 4 votes in favour, 9 against and 2 abstentions in 15 member states.
At first glance it looks like an ordinary vote, but in fact, it’s been the last decade of the United Nations. the first timeRestart sweeping sanctions on Iran. In an instant, the thermometer of the international situation soared.
This series of sanctions not only covers Iran's arms embargo, but also involves nuclear program, ballistic missile, technology transfer and many other aspects, which can be called a combination of "blocking + technological blockade".
And behind this is the “rapid resumption of sanctions mechanism” officially launched by the Anglo-German three countries at the end of August – a “last resort” in the Iranian nuclear deal, which is now drawn directly to the table.
Iran’s reaction was also relatively rapid and violent, with the Iranian Foreign Ministry rarely recalling its ambassadors in Britain, France and Germany at the same time, less than 24 hours before the sanctions came into force.
The diplomatic signals are obvious: since you don’t talk about the spirit of the agreement, we don’t need to go ahead.Iran’s Foreign Minister, Al-Aqsa, directly prompted the words: the wave of US-Europe operations, the process is illegal, political irresponsibility, and the consequences you measure yourself.
Meanwhile, Iran’s response has also been rapidly escalating: the government has rumored that it could suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, and hardened lawmakers have called for a “radical withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.”
It is noteworthy that Iran’s President, Mr. Pezzhiyan, hasined a “dialogue window” and has publicly stated that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and is willing to accept transparent supervision, but on the condition that it is “monitored fairly and negotiated fairly.”
In other words, Iran is not to close the door, but to ask the other party to knock on the door.
The positions of major powers collide, and the Security Council falls into a "diplomatic deadlock"
The Iranian nuclear issue is no longer a matter for Iran alone, but an international political vortex that affects the whole body. Especially after the restart of the sanctions, the positions of major powers have become tit-for-tat, and the Security Council has almost become a "exhibition hall for world opinion division".
China and Russia are on Iran's side. When the Chinese representative spoke in the Security Council, he didn't say much, but every sentence was hit the floor. Dialogue and negotiation were the only way out; Military strikes are unacceptable.
Subsequently, China also emphasized the "three insistences": adhering to regional peace, adhering to dialogue and negotiation, and adhering to the spirit of the agreement.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov wrote a letter directly to the UN Secretary-General, stating that the Security Council’s so-called “resumption of sanctions” is illegal, not only inappropriate, but contrary to the fundamental spirit of the 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement.
On the other hand, Britain, France and Germany showed a high degree of unanimity and jointly issued a statement emphasizing that "Iran has not fulfilled its nuclear obligations", supporting the full resumption of sanctions, and calling on "all countries to cooperate".
Their logic is: the agreement is conditional, and if Iran can't do it, it has to accept the consequences.
The US side is stronger. Although it did not directly take action in the restoration of sanctions, the White House made it clear that, “All countries must comply with sanctions on Iran.”This is actually a mutation in the cry: who dares not to enforce the sanctions, the consequences will be borne by himself.
The subtlety of the game is that the U.S. Europe is trying to legalize the mechanism of "rapid reinstatement of sanctions", while China and Russia insist that this has failed.The Security Council is now like a trapped gear, no one can push, no one is willing to compromise.
Behind this impasse, in fact, is a deep crack in the international order: one is the “rule-led order” led by the United States, the other is the “order based on the Charter of the United Nations” advocated by China and Russia.
Nuclear intelligence exposed, security crisis approaches critical point
Just as you came to me to get caught up in diplomacy, Iran played another heavy card – the intelligence war.
On September 24, Iranian intelligence minister Hatib publicly announced that Iran has a large amount of nuclear weapons. Israeli nuclear weapons programConfidential information, including even images from inside the Dimona nuclear base.
This is not a rumor, but a "nuclear photo" issued by Iran itself, equivalent to throwing down an intelligence bomb.
The intelligence contains not only details of Israel's nuclear program, but also records of jointly developing nuclear technology with the United States and some European countries, which directly tears the "double standards" of the West on the Middle East nuclear issue.
Israel has never publicly admitted its possession of nuclear weapons, but its nuclear capabilities are no longer a secret internationally. Whenever someone proposes to investigate Israel's nuclear facilities, the United States always decisively vetoes them.
And Iran’s turn, even if it’s just a civilian nuclear program, is sanctioned, blocked, encircled, and pressured.
Iran this time brought out the "black material" of Israel, is saying: you can't just look at me alone with a knife, the other nuclear warhead you don't care?
One of the biggest problems with the security pattern in the Middle East is the lack of a unified security mechanism: Iran and Israel view each other as a “survival-grade threat” and the U.S. position is clearly inclined toward Israel.
This unequal sense of security has caused the Middle East to remain in a state of high pressure, with any point on Mars likely to explode.
Now, the "fuze" of the Iranian nuclear issue has been rekindled. Iran stated that it does not recognize the legality of the sanctions restored by the United Nations and will no longer abide by any nuclear-related restrictions after October 18th. This means that Iran is likely to expand its nuclear activities in an all-round way.
Once the nuclear talks are completely broken, the escalation of hostility between Iran and Israel, the increased sense of U.S. military presence in the Middle East, the risks of regional conflict will rise rapidly, and will also bring chain shocks to global energy markets and geosecurity.
The situation has reached a critical point, the diplomatic window is still open, but the time is counting back.The Chinese side represents the phrase "The Middle East can not be messed up, Iran can not be fought", not only China's position, but also the common voice of most countries that hope for a peaceful settlement.
The question is, who will listen?
The start of the storm was the crackdown of the Iranian nuclear deal, but the end could be far beyond this.The parties are playing their own interests, but if the basic dialogue logic and mutual respect are lost, it ends up out of control, not only the situation, but also the bottom line of humanity for peace.
The recall of Iran's ambassador is a signal, the restart of sanctions is a warning, and China's statement that "no force is allowed" is a red line. Whoever crosses this line will have to be prepared to face the consequences all over the world.
Source:
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