Poland did not expect it. Once the border gate closed, it broke its own "golden bowl" and also successfully pushed the dominoes of the China-European trade pattern.
When Poland closed the doors of the border with Belarus using the "Russian and White exercises", it may have thought that it could hold the "doors" of the Central European ranks, but it has not been counted, the Chinese side has long been behind.
The previous few days also shouted "security is not guaranteed", will indefinitely maintain the closure of the border port, as a result of which China just came up with a spare solution, Poland has hurried to change its mouth "shut down".
According to netizens, this is "calling the old suites of the flower, taking bricks on their face, threatening others."
In mid-September, Russia-Belarus joint military exercises "West 2025" Kongo began, Poland announced the closure of all border roads and railway ports on the speed of fire.
You know, during Russian military exercises in the past, although European countries were on alert, they rarely responded by the extreme method of "complete customs closure".
Why is Poland so tough?
To put it bluntly, I feel that I hold the key to the "European Gateway". In recent years, most of the China-Europe trains have entered Europe by Poland, and the Malaszewicz hub has become a "China-Europe train transit station". Even if the door is closed for a few days, China and Europe will finally have to beg for it to open.
However, Poland does not count to the extent that China does not panic.
In fact, at the beginning of the opening of the Central European line, the Chinese side did not put its treasures on a single line in Poland.
The China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway on the southern line has been planned for many years, and the freight volume will increase by 70% in the first half of 2025;
The Caspian Sea-Caucasus route has already been opened. Goods start from Xinjiang, China, pass through Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and then cross the Caspian Sea and Georgia, and they can reach Europe directly, avoiding the Polish-Belarusian border all the way;
There is also the Arctic route. Affected by global warming, the navigation period has been extended to 120 days. China's newly launched "China-Europe Arctic Express" takes the Northeast Passage of the Arctic and passes through the Bering Strait, which takes about 18 days one way, and will set a new record for shipping timeliness from Ningbo to Europe.
Road crossing at Polovce-Pyszchatka on the Polish-Belarusian border
These lines seemed to be “reserve” before, but they instantly became “main force” when Poland closed its doors.
It was only then that Poland realized that it was not an “exclusive channel” and that it had long been “one” in the Central European trade network, rather than “the only one”.
Poland clearly saw the situation clearly, and then it began to panic.
On the one hand, Poland's economy is too tightly tied to the China-European line, closure for 11 days, losing an average of 200 million euros per day in transit revenue, China-European line related revenue accounting for 2% of GDP evaporated in vain, the unemployment rate of logistics practitioners in the east increased by 15%, and the local government received corporate complaints letters became a mountain.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said: “The border gate will be reopened at midnight on the 24th,” he said, even though he said it could still be closed if the threat reappears.
But anyone with a discerning eye can see that Poland is worried that Chinese and European companies will really "abandon" themselves if it drags on any longer.
Looking back now, the matter of opening and closing ports in Poland is far more than "closing and opening".
From the security level, Poland has always viewed Russia as a "security threat", and since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has been closer to NATO, not only allowing NATO to deploy troops inside its territory, but also frequently participating in NATO military exercises, that is, to rely on NATO's protection against potential risks.
This security dependence has forced Poland to keep up with NATO in its policy towards Russia. To some extent, the closure of the customs through military exercises is also intended to prove to the United States and NATO that "they are reliable allies."
On an economic level, Poland also relies heavily on China-dominated Central European ranks.
China is Poland’s largest trading partner in Asia, and the imports of goods in China and Europe include electronic products, textiles and parts needed by Polish companies to export.
Once this line is interrupted, Poland's people's livelihood and industry will be affected.
On the one hand, “safe on the mountain”, on the other hand, “economic bowl”, Poland is like standing in the middle of the plain, neither side dares to give up easily.
However, there is an irreconcilable contradiction between the two.
NATO's tough stance towards Russia makes Poland tied when dealing with trade channels related to Russia;
Depending on China’s economic cooperation has also caused Poland to fear that the United States will be blamed for NATO.
This anxiety of “wishing to please the United States and fearing to blame China” is like a sting in Poland’s heart.
It’s hard to say what the future will be, but one thing is certain:
Poland wants to find a sense of existence by "closing" days, afraid that it will not return.
After all, on the big table of global trade, the best way no one wants to be “abandoned” and not abandoned is to follow in the footsteps of the times, rather than thinking of “topping someone else’s neck.”
In fact, the way for a small country to survive is never to blindly stand in sides, but to find a balance that suits itself.
If you only focus on the interests of one side and ignore the needs of the other side, you will only make yourself passive in the end.
Poland's lesson this time may serve as a reminder to other small and medium-sized countries.
In the complex geopolitical pattern, only by giving consideration to security and economy and balancing the relationship with major forces can we gain a firm foothold in the storm.
For Poland, reopening ports is only the first step.
In the future, how to find a balance between NATO’s security needs and economic cooperation with China, and how to avoid falling back into the cycle of “block-block-compromise” is a question that really needs to be considered.
After all, in the game of great powers, there is no eternal "reliance on the mountain", only eternal interests;
Instead of shaking between the major forces, it is better to develop itself in a practical way.
To enhance its own resistance to risk, this is the most reliable “security guarantee” and “economic table” for small countries.