Preliminary
“Poisoning” and “arrest warrants,” two seemingly unrelated words, hit the same man, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in four days.
Was it a coincidence of time or a well-designed sequence of tricks in the political chess station? more playful is the time when the two happened, just after the first U.N. debut of the Syrian interim government leader, Julian, and a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky.
The Health Crisis of the Exiled President and the “Vague Zone” of the Intelligence War
On September 22, several foreign media outlets quoted anonymous reports as saying that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was in exile from Russia, had "severe symptoms such as cough, difficulty breathing", suspected of poisoning.
Although Russian officials have not directly confirmed, reports revealed that medical teams implemented “emergency treatment” to stabilize their condition. The poisoning rumors quickly sparked speculation, and the focus naturally pointed to intelligence agencies, whether Mossad, the CIA or the KGB, have the ability and history of carrying out such actions.
But the peculiarity of poisoning incidents lies in their “unconfirmability”; such operations tend to stop at the level of public opinion, disturbing the opponent’s feet through vague information.
It is worth noting that Assad has almost not appeared publicly since his exile in Russia in December 2024, this time suddenly returning to the center of public opinion in a "intoxicating" way, coinciding with the first diplomatic debut of Syrian interim government leader Julian at the United Nations.
Analysts also pointed out that the poisoning news could be a “political probation”: if Assad’s life is really at risk, his supporters might be in chaos; if the news is false, it could force Russia or Assad’s camp to clarify, exposing his current state and hiding.
Regardless of the outcome, the behind-the-scenes operators can benefit from it, and this “non-fatal but high-focus” approach is the grey tactic common in modern geosphere.
Make a political statement or submit a "vote certificate" to the West?
Four days later, on September 26, the leader of the Syrian interim government, Julian Assad, signed an arrest warrant, accusing him of “causing massive casualties in the repression of protests in 2011”.
This seemingly sudden, real-world move, which Julian publicly stated during the United Nations General Assembly that he “will pursue the responsibility of the former regime” and met with Ukrainian President Zelensky to emphasize “opposition to aggression and repression”, is seen as a signal of approximation to the West.
The substance of the arrest warrant is limited. Assad is in Russia, under Moscow asylum, and the Julian regime lacks practical law enforcement capabilities. But its symbolic significance is extremely obvious: one is to strengthen his own “just judge” image, cut with the Assad era; the other is to show the American West, showing a position of keeping a distance from Russia. It is noteworthy that Julian chose to act quickly after the poisoning rumors, as if in response to some external expectations.
Experts in the Middle East point out that the Julian regime is currently facing legality difficulties. Despite controlling parts of the territory, its authority has not yet been widely recognized at home, and economic reconstruction is more dependent on Western aid.
By holding Assad accountable in a high profile, Julani can not only divert domestic contradictions, but also exchange international support. This kind of "show law enforcement" is not uncommon in Middle Eastern politics, but its effect often depends on the attitude of the supporters behind the scenes.
A new phase from the battlefield to the agent game
The Syrian civil war has been going on for more than a decade, but it has never really left the spire of the game of great powers. Russiains Assad’s regime through military intervention, while the United States relies on Kurdish armed forces and opposition to maintain its influence.
After Assad's exile in late 2024 and Julian's rise to power, Syria has entered the "post-war era", but the form of struggle has shifted from hot war to dark war in the political, economic and intelligence fields.
The connection between the poisoning and the arrest warrants reflected Syria’s “testing field” as an agent game. Russia needs to maintain a sense of presence in the Middle East by protecting Assad, while the United States hopes to weaken Russia’s influence with the Julian regime. Even regional forces such as Turkey, Iran, Israel and others are deeply involved in it, each supporting agents and fighting to rebuild dominance after the war.
The game is not limited to the political level. Syria has a strategic position on the east coast of the Mediterranean, potential oil and gas resources and rebuilding market value is enormous. Whoever controls Syria, whoever can take advantage in the next stage of the Middle East pattern. Julian's arrest warrant and Assad's poisoning rumors, on the surface is a domestic political struggle, in fact, is a shade of the great powers struggle for Syria's future dominance.
Epilogue
The truth may never fully emerge, but the timeliness of the two events has sufficiently explained the problem: on the Syrian table, political movements never occur in isolation. The “four-day interval” between the poisoning rumors and the arrest warrants is more like a carefully planned scenario – the first test is false, the latter stands.
Assad and Julani, whether voluntarily or forced, have become pawns in the game of great powers. Their destiny is never entirely in their own hands.