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Edited by^W.n
The Baltic Sea has not been peaceful these days, and the contest between NATO and Russia is very hot. The reason is not complicated. NATO told Russia through non-public channels that as long as military aircraft approach the airspace of NATO member states in the future, they will be ready to take action.
And Russia also responded reluctantly, really moving, that is, war.
This is not a simple battle of mouth, but a dangerous diplomatic dispute that reaches the critical point, and the background is of course the two-year-old war in Ukraine.
To this day, everyone knows that Ukraine is only the surface, and the strongest behind it is actually a geo-game between NATO and Russia.
The “NATO Signal”
NATO's release of the "ready-to-fire" signal was not a sudden move, but a direct result of the escalation of Baltic airspace confrontation since 2025.
According to information disclosed by the NATO Joint Air Operations Center, from January to August 2025, Russian military aircraft made 142 "abnormal flights" in the Baltic Sea region, an increase of 37% over the same period in 2024, of which 32 entered the "air defense identification zone" of NATO member states. ", 11 times less than 10 kilometers away from airspace.
This high-frequency approach increases the pressure on NATO member states, especially the three Baltic states.On 18 June 2025, Russian Air Force 2 Su-35 fighter jets “dangerously approach” Lithuanian coastal airspace with NATO F-16 fighter jets, reducing their distance to 500 meters at a time and eventually withdrawing NATO fighter jets.
Following the incident, Lithuania’s President Zvezda openly called on NATO to “take tougher countermeasures” and said “verbal warnings have failed to curb Russia’s attempts.”
In late August, NATO sent a non-public notice to the Russian Ministry of Defense through its military liaison office in Moscow, clearly delineating a "red line": if a Russian military aircraft enters the airspace of NATO member states without advance reporting, or refuses to respond to NATO ground control instructions in the air defense identification zone, NATO has the right to initiate a "self-defense fire" procedure.
The announcement broke NATO’s default rule of “only dispersing and not opening fire” against Russia since 2014 and for the first time included “forced counter-action” as a response option.
From “reciprocal deterrence” to “war warning”
In the face of NATO’s harsh gestures, Russia responded quickly and decisively.
On August 30, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov made it clear at a routine press conference that NATO’s so-called “fighting authority” is essentially a “dangerous signal of unilateral escalation of the conflict” and that if NATO aircraft take any offensive action against Russian aircraft, it will be considered “a declaration of war against Russia” and the Russian military will “use all available means to counterattack.”
To support this position, Russia immediately strengthened its military deployment along the Baltic Sea coast. On September 5, Russia's Western Military District announced the dispatch of two additional S-400 anti-aircraft missile battalions to Kaliningrad Oblast. This area is only 60 kilometers away from the Polish border, and the missile range can cover the entire Baltic airspace.
At the same time, the Russian Navy's Baltic fleet has deployed the "Marshal of the Navy Gorshkov" escort ship to conduct real-time ballistic shooting exercises in the Gulf of Finland, focusing on testing the maritime and air strike capabilities of the "Kremlin" high-speed hypersonic missiles - this missile has a maximum speed of 9 Mach, and NATO's existing air defense systems are difficult to intercept.
The actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces are equally targeted. From September 10 to 12, the Russian Aerospace Forces dispatched 4-6 sorties of Su-35 and Su-30SM fighter jets every day to patrol the neutral airspace of the Baltic Sea. Some fighter jets carried R-77 medium-range air-to-air missiles to maintain "combat readiness cruise" status.
The Russian Defense Ministry emphasized that these actions are "reciprocal response to NATO's military provocation" and aim to "safeguard Russia's security interests in the Arctic-Baltic region".
"Extended confrontation" on the Ukrainian battlefield
The tense confrontation between NATO and Russia in the Baltic Sea is essentially an “extension” of the Ukrainian battlefield game.Since 2025, the Ukrainian battlefield has been stagnant, NATO’s strength to the Ukrainian army has decreased, while Russia, by mobilizing additional troops, has launched a partial counterattack in the direction of Donbass, Zaporizhia and other areas.
In this context, NATO is trying to disperse Russia’s military resources through pressure in the Baltic Sea and to struggle for breathing space for Ukraine.
The three Baltic countries, Poland and other Central and Eastern European countries have taken a tough stance, advocating "strong deterrence" against Russia, and even called for NATO to deploy permanent troops on the Baltic coast.
While Germany, France and other Western European countries are relatively cautious, German Prime Minister Scholz said at the EU summit on September 15 that "direct military conflict with Russia should be avoided, and diplomatic channels should remain open", reflecting concerns within NATO about the "risk of conflict escalation".
In June 2025, Russia’s new National Security Strategy defined NATO as “Russia’s main security threat” and clearly proposed “building a reliable defense system in critical strategic directions.”
As an important passage from Russia to the Atlantic Ocean, the Baltic Sea's airspace and sea control rights are of strategic significance to Russia's national security. Therefore, Russia is unwilling to "make concessions" in this area, fearing that NATO will form an "encirclement".
The past and risks of the Baltic “air confrontation”
The NATO-Russia "first warning" is not the first confrontation between the two sides in the Baltic Sea.
After the Crimea incident in 2014, NATO strengthened its air patrols in the Baltic Sea. Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada and other countries took turns to send fighter planes to the Siauliai Air Force Base in Lithuania to undertake the "Baltic Air policing" mission.
As of 2025, the mission has lasted for 11 years, with more than 800 “near-range contact” incidents between the two military aircraft, but there has never been a real shooting.
But the situation in 2025 is significantly different from before, with NATO for the first time clearly opening fire as a response option, breaking the long-standing “dissuasion balance.”
Russia, on the other hand, not only responded strongly through diplomatic statements, but simultaneously upgraded its military deployment, with significant risks of “misjudgment” on both sides.Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) noted in a September report that the Baltic Sea region “has become one of the most intense areas of global military confrontation” and that any operational error could trigger “uncontrollable conflict escalation”.
It is noteworthy that on September 20, Russia and NATO’s “military hotline” (a communication mechanism established in 1998) held a routine call, where the two sides exchanged views on “preventing air accidents”, but no new consensus was reached.
The existence of this channel provides a minimum guarantee for the two sides to avoid "sweeping the gun" and also reflects the intention of the two sides to completely cut off communication despite the intense confrontation.
Towards the Future: The “double tone” of confrontation and restraint
Judging from the current situation, the confrontation between NATO and Russia in the Baltic Sea may last for a long time, but the probability of direct military conflict in the short term is low.
In a statement on September 22, UN Secretary-General Guterres called on NATO and Russia to “maximise restraint and resolve differences through dialogue,” saying “any expansion of military conflict would have catastrophic consequences for global security.”
The Chinese Foreign Ministry also said it hopes that all sides "respect each other's security concerns and build a balanced, effective and sustainable European security framework through equal dialogue", reflecting the concerns of the international community about the situation in the Baltic Sea.
Official sources and links
NATO air confrontation data in the Baltic Sea and "first warning" information: NATO official website - United Air Operations Center report
Russian Defense Ministry Response and Military Deployment Statement: Russian Defense Ministry Website News
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Baltic Sea situation report: SIPRI official website report page
Statement by UN Secretary-General Guterres: UN official website News Center
China's Foreign Ministry Statement on European Security: China's Foreign Ministry spokesman