«--[· Preface ·]--»
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad suspected of being poisoned
Several English-language websites, including the Jordanian Daily, that former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was suspected of being rescued from a Russian hospital due to poisoning.
There are reports that in Barcelona and on Sunday there was physical discomfort and breathing difficulties. After the doctors arrived, Bashar’s condition began to be serious. The Syrian Observatory’s official blog on the social network Facebook said that Bashar al-Assad had been taken to the hospital and his condition was serious.
“A poisoning in Moscow?”
On the same day on September 19, several English media outlets suddenly released a big news: former President Bashar al-Assad in Moscow, Russia, was suspected of being poisoned and is now being rescued in the local hospital.
According to the news, Bashar was beginning to go wrong on Sunday night, breathing and still a heavy cough, when the doctors arrived, his situation was getting worse and worse.Later inspection results came out, his body has unknown toxins residues.The British "Sun" asked the acquaintance, saying this was absolutely not an accident, and there must be a political chaos behind.
To know, Bashar has been in exile in Russia for 10 months. After the regime was overthrown by Julanis with the “Sham Liberation Organization” in December last year, he has been “protected” by Russia and is not seen at all.
As soon as this poisoning came out, the Russian security department said nothing, neither admitted nor denied, but instead made the outside people wonder more and more confused.
“Who’s in the hand?”
The first to say the suspicious — the current president of Syria, Julian, who initially pushed Bashar al-Assad down, and the “Sharm Liberation Organization” in his hands has long coalesced with the extremists of ISIS and al-Qaeda.
His HTS armed, previously used chemical weapons, assassinated this set of opponents, and in March this year, he also attacked the Arabian people, killed 1500 people at once.
Anyone who knows how to do this can see that if Bashar died accidentally on the Russian side, Julian would be able to completely eliminate this political threat, but also to throw the pot to Russia, it would simply be a stone-two-bird.
Look at the second possible — the remaining forces of ISIS. Although ISIS has long been gone in Syria, the remaining people are still wandering in the eastern desert, always thinking about assassination and creating chaos.
When Bashar was president, he noted ISIS, both sides grew hostile.If ISIS could hide to Russian territory for revenge, it could break down the symbols of the former Syrian regime, but also make the international community feel that Russia is not even seen by individuals, it would be damaged.
There is also a third possibility —— that external forces will interfere in the Syrian civil war for many years, behind which the great powers have been breaking their wrists.
And Russia, in order to preserve its military bases in Syria, voted against the sanctions against Bashar al-Assad in the United Nations.If this incident would make Russian-Syrian relations tough, Russia's influence in the Middle East would be weakened, which is in line with the minds of some Western countries.
«-[· Why must Bashar die? ·]-»
Among all the suspects, the current President Julani is the most suspected. This "jihadist commander" from Saudi Arabia has never stopped acting against Bashar since he took power last year, just like weaving a "net of death".
If he wants to consolidate his power, he has to attack Bashar. Julani's position is inherently unstable. Although the "Tahrir Al-Sham Organization" in his hand controls Damascus, there are still Kurdish armed forces and Druze autonomous forces in Syria, and there are separatist regimes everywhere. In order to convince everyone, Julani must describe Bashar as a "public enemy".
Not only did he ask for Bashar with Russia, but he also set up a “transitional justice committee” to put the pot of the civil war on the head of the former regime.If Bashar died in Russia, Julian could say “Justice has arrived” and thus torn the opposition into a rope.
Following the rise of Julian, the Syrian economy was unstable: more than 90% of people were below the poverty line, electricity supply dropped from 12 hours a day to 3 or 4 hours, public servants paid less than $20 a month, and even food was hard.
The people were dissatisfied, and Julanis regarded Bashar's old and Alawites as "indigenous ghosts", allowing the HTS to kill them.This time, if he called Bashar's poisoning "Alawite anti-poisoning", Julanis could correctly repress once more, and could also ask for more help with Western countries.
He wanted to hold the West’s thighs, and had to vote for the name of Nazareth.Julani, after taking office, turned back to the West, not only secretly negotiating military deals with Israel, but also allowing American companies to extract Syrian oil.
But the West has not yet fully believed him, asking him to come up with the “true thing.”If Bashar died, Julian could prove to the West that “the Assad era is completely over,” to join the Arab League and return to the international community.
“The Three Ends of Bashar”
Bashar is dead and alive, not only for himself, but also for Syria and even the entire Middle East.In combination with the current situation, he may have three ends in the future: the first end: poisoning death, civil war escalation.
If Bashar was not rescued, his old and Alawite armed forces would surely retaliate.In March this year, the Alawite Coast Shield Brigade joined forces against the HTS and killed 3,500 militants at once.
In order to repress, Julian may have sought the help of Turkey and Israel, when the Syrian civil war became a regional power fight.
The second end: surviving but exiled, political career is completely over. If Bashar succeeds to survive, Russia may send him to Belarus or Iran to exile.
But without power and money, Bashar is a symbolic figure, which can only influence a handful of Alawites. Julani can just take this opportunity to engage in "de-Assadization", clear all the old people in the government and the army, and sit firmly in his seat.
Third end: being extradited back to trial, it became an international joke.If Julian puts diplomatic pressure on Russia to hand Bashar back, Syria could have a “century trial.”
Julian will accuse Bashar of committing “crimes against humanity” and will also invite Western nations to be observers.Al the outcome of the trial has long been decided, Julian can use the case to make the international community recognize his legitimacy and to find an excuse for Western nations to interfere in Syria’s internal affairs.
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Bashar's poisoning is, in the final analysis, a microcosm of the Syrian civil war. He is just a victim of the game between great powers. In this power game, no one is the real winner: Julani relied on violence to secure his position, but he laid a mine for division; Russia lost its allies in order to keep its base, which is morally untenable; If the United States and Israel want to profit, they may get deeper into it.