The winds and waves in the Caribbean Sea are high, and the smell of gunpowder is getting stronger and stronger. The confrontation between Venezuela and the United States has gone from a verbal battle to actual combat warm-up. Warships dock, fighter planes take off, and submarines dive. The button of war seems to be only one signature away.
On September 26, the US National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) exploded: the U.S. military has developed a complete military strike plan, which can be launched in a few weeks as soon as possible, this is not an exercise, not intimidation, not a war of public opinion, but a practical real war deployment.
From the Pentagon to the Caribbean coast, all the signs are sending a signal: the war message is on, on or off, to see if Trump’s pen spikes don’t fall.
Army pressure
Saying the U.S. military is "ready" is not a rendering of the media, but putting troops to the doorstep of the Venezuelan home, first look at the marine line-up, "Jason Dunham" destroyer has quietly approached.
There is only less than 50 kilometers left to enter the Venezuelan coastal strike circle. It is not only a mobile firepower platform capable of launching Tomahawk missiles, but also an outpost of the US Navy's strike chain.
At the same time, the US military has mobilized at least eight warships and an amphibious assault group. The flagship is the "Iwo Jima". This behemoth was originally designed for nearshore landings and air-ground coordinated operations. It is equipped with Marine Corps and heavy equipment. The firepower and delivery power cannot be underestimated.
More covertly, at least one nuclear submarine has plunged deep in the Caribbean, hidden in the ocean floor, ready to launch missiles at any time, with a total force of more than 4,000 people, already with small-scale warfare capabilities.
The air force did not fall, and the F-35 hidden fighter, especially the F-35B with short-range/vertical take-off capability, has been deployed to Puerto Rico with a clear purpose: take control of the air.
There are also B-2 strategic bombers on dispatch in the rear. This "aerial ghost" can quietly fly over the defense line and deliver high-precision bombs above the enemy's head.
When U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth boarded the Iwo Jima, he said a meaningful remark: "This is not an exercise." This sentence sounds simple, but it is the vane of the whole operation.
Once signed by the president, the U.S. military will carry out the so-called "point-hole strikes" on a departmental basis: the F-35 will clear the air defense net, the destroyer and submarine will launch "war-hack" missiles, the B-2 will precisely bomb core targets, and the bipartisan forces will respond to the ground.
NBC sources reconfirmed that the military plan has been locked, and only political decisions are left. In other words, the missiles have been loaded and the buttons have been powered on, just waiting for the White House to issue a "start" instruction.
Hegemonic calculation
On the surface, the U.S. operation was under the banner of “anti-drug”, but the reason for this is too small, from early 2025 to now, the U.S. military has sunk four so-called “drug trafficking vessels.”
But so far, not even a photo or a piece of evidence has been produced, and even the domestic media in the United States have begun to question, is this really fighting drug dealers or looking for an excuse to go to war?
In fact, the strategic intention is clear at a glance. Maduro's government has always been one of the most troublesome opponents of the United States in Latin America. It is pro-Russian, anti-American, tough and uncooperative. The United States has long wanted to replace this "nail house", but it suffers from lack of grasp. Now it has caught the line of "anti-drug", followed the trend and started it directly.
The White House’s attitude toward Maduro is also increasingly obscure, and when Maduro tried to deliver the reconciliation letter, the U.S. simply refused, calling it “filled with lies” and not worthy of dialogue, this gesture of discontinuation of political communication shows that the United States no longer hopes to settle through negotiations, but is thoroughly prepared to “change people” by military means.
A deeper consideration is the re-charting of the United States on its own "background", in recent years, Latin American countries are increasingly not buying accounts, leftist forces are rising, independent voices are increasing.
The United States feels that it has a loose control of this continent and needs to "kill the monkey" if it can fight a beautiful battle in Venezuela, not only to clear a difficult opponent, but also to shake Mexico and Brazil these increasingly "selfish" neighbors.
Of course, there is a layer of inconvenient consideration behind it, at the moment, the Trump administration is facing a series of "internal fires" such as economic pressure, debt crisis, high inflation.
An overseas military operation that appears to be controlled and winning, just shifted domestic attention, so that voters shifted their eyes from commodity prices and employment, to the big flag of "defense of national interests", this operation is not the first in U.S. history.
Risky
Although the military power is well-set and the strike plan is also ready, but Trump’s pen, late and late, has not fallen, why, because this war is not a conflict of “fight and end”, but a strategic hoax that may trigger a series of effects.
First, Venezuela is neither Iraq nor Libya, a country that not only has more than 200,000 troops, but also popular support that cannot be overlooked.
Once the war broke out, it is likely not to be a "surgical strike", but to evolve into a long-term confrontation, the US military can win the first battle, but can handle the "after", no one dares to pack the ticket.
Secondly, once Venezuela is in a war, the flow of refugees will be inevitable, with the United States itself and its Latino-American neighbors at the forefront, which will trigger a new round of humanitarian crises that may counteract the influence of the United States in the region.
On the diplomatic level, although the American countries have opinions about Maduro, they are not willing to cooperate with the United States to fight their own "background" sovereign countries.
If the United States rashly uses force with insufficient evidence, it is likely to trigger a strong rebound from Mexico, Brazil and other countries, leading to cracks in the American system. This is not to establish prestige, but to cut off the foundation.
More importantly, Venezuela is still a major oil producer, and with the war, oil prices will surge, while the United States is currently facing double pressure from economic slowdown and high inflation.
Once oil prices get out of control, the anger in the United States is likely to turn to the White House, when Trump won not the support, but the back of the "war economy" blackpot.
The combined risks have turned this seemingly simple “military operation” into a triple game of politics, economics and strategy, and once the bet fails, not only will Venezuela become a new Middle East, but the United States itself will fall into deeper trouble.
Generally speaking, the U.S. military has indeed completed high-standard and high-density combat readiness deployment. From the fleet to the air force, from tactics to strategy, the entire strike system has been put in place. There is no problem with the technical premise of the war. The only thing missing is Trump's signature.
What he has to weigh is whether the short-term gains of Levi’s can offset long-term political costs, economic shocks and strategic uncertainty, which is not only a blow to Venezuela, but a test to U.S. global leadership.
The next few weeks will be the crucial window of this potential war, with tensions no doubt, but the ultimate move is not on the table, and the variable remains: harder sanctions, tougher diplomatic means, may still be able to hold the button.
This crisis is not only the trouble of Venezuela, but also shows how the United States is facing a world where authorities are relaxing, how the world is holding its breath, and the paper order is signed or not signed.
Source of information:
Explosives say the United States plans to strike targets within Venezuela 2025-09-28 00:01 · Beijing Daily client