Preliminary

26 SeptemberIn the evening, in a small meeting room in the United Nations Security Council, a vote to decide Iran’s fate was decided. 9 votes against, 4 votes in favour, 2 abstentionsDigital freezing is cruel.

This means that Iran's United Nations sanctionsIt will be officially resumed on the 27th, and China-Russia's last-minute diplomatic sprint declared a failure. The Khamenei regimeFacing the most severe international isolation since 2018.

Why did Russia not succeed? by HameneyIs there a reversal opportunity?

9 votes iron-hearted opposition, the Chinese-Russian rescue completely failed

The moment the results of the vote were announced, the air in the conference room was almost condensed.

The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, Estonia, Japan, Korea, 9 countriesWithout hesitation, voted against it.

Support the Russian proposal. Pakistan and AlgeriaThese two Muslim countries, even South Korea, which has always been left-handed between the United States and the Middle East, chose to abstain.

Behind this vote is the almost desperate efforts of Chinese and Russian diplomats in the past month.

Early in August 28After the launch of the mechanism of "rapid reinstatement of sanctions", China-Russia began intensive cross-border diplomacy.

The Russian Foreign Ministry. 20 SeptemberThe strict statement, referring to the U.S. West’s actions as “provocatory and illegal,” warned that the resumption of sanctions could plunge the Middle East into a new tragedy.

China's Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Fujin, has held a continuous meeting after the preliminary vote. Three press conferences, repeatedly stressing that the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 is the root of the dilemma.

Just 12 hours before the vote, China and Russia are still making the final effort.

The Russian delegation held closed-door talks with African members in an attempt to win more support.

China joined Pakistan and other countries to convey to European countries concerns that “sanctions will exacerbate the regional humanitarian crisis.”

But these efforts eventually hit. Western countriesThe iron board.

France’s delegate said the resumption of sanctions “does not mean closing the door to negotiations,” but Iran must first take concrete action.

What did the Russian teach this time? “No enemies”。

Even with the special status of permanent members of the Security Council, they can only watch the joint pressure of most countries Sanctions reinstatementBecome an established fact.

Britain, France and Germany tore their faces apart, and the 30-day negotiation became a formality

This diplomatic defeat was not a coincidence, and a month ago, the dark stream had already begun to flood.

according to 2015 Iranian nuclear dealBefore launching the "rapid resumption of sanctions" mechanism, a "dispute resolution mechanism" must be passed.

English is there. August 28This link was skipped directly and the sanctions resumption procedure was triggered on the grounds that "Iran violated the agreement".

This approach has been strongly challenged by China and Iran from the outset.

In his speech, the Chinese representative pointed directly to the core of the problem: U.S. Western imposition of sanctions is unilateral punishment, creating division in the Security Council.

Russian Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitry Polyansky said: Iran has done everything it canCater to the demands of European countries, but the West refuses to compromise.

So-called 30 days buffering periodIn fact, it was a pretext from the beginning.

In the past 30 days, Iran and the British Federation had only one telephone conversation, and the United States has always refused to participate directly in negotiations.

The parties showed no sign of compromise on key differences.

Western countries accuse Iran Increased uranium stocksIt has far exceeded the agreement limit by 20 times, and limits the verification scope of the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran, on the other hand, said it was a “countermeasure” to U.S. unilateral sanctions and the failure of Europe to meet its economic support commitments.

U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June this year have raised serious doubts about the “security of diplomatic negotiations.”

such mutual distrustThe vicious cycle makes any real negotiation impossible.

As the European signatories of the Iranian nuclear deal, Britain, France and Germany are particularly critical to change their attitudes.

In previous consultations, the three countries made it clear that Iran had failed to fulfill its obligations under the agreement, and the resumption of sanctions was a "necessary means of pressure".

Behind this tough stance lies a profound mistrust in Iran’s untransparent practices of nuclear activity.

In the last few years, The International Atomic Energy AgencyMore than 60 reports detailed Iranian breaches.

Western countries believe that giving time is tolerance, and rules must have a bottom line.

Comprehensive economic and military diplomacy encirclement, Iran falls into a mortal deadlock

The failure of the process brings a total impact in reality.

United Nations sanctionsOnce restarted, Iran will face a more severe international blockade than the unilateral sanctions imposed by the United States.

The most direct impact is the economic level.

based on Central Bank of IranAccording to the data, the current inflation rate has exceeded 40 percent, and oil export revenue could fall by another 30 percent after sanctions were resumed.

This is no different for a country that is heavily dependent on energy exports.

Within 48 hours after the sanctions were resumed, the Iranian rial fell by 8 percent against the US dollar and several European companies suspended trade with Iran.

International energy markets are also fluctuating. Brent crude oilPrices rose 2.3%, reflecting market concerns about the situation in the Middle East.

Military restrictions are equally severe.

Restored sanctions directly ban the sale of conventional weapons to Iran, which means it will be extremely difficult for Iran to upgrade its equipment and enhance its defense capabilities.

In the current unstable Middle East, this limitation is The sense of security in IranA great discount.

Even worse is the diplomatic isolation.

While China and Russia still support in speech, they must also abide by the resolutions within the framework of the United Nations, and cannot explicitly help Iran circumvent sanctions.

This makes Iran hardly really rely on itself on the international stage.

within the region Saudi Arabia IsraelCountries that have always been vigilant about Iran are now more openly supporting sanctions.

They believe that only in this way can Iran’s influence in the Middle East be suppressed.

In the past, Iran has supported certain armed forces in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and other places, maintaining the so-called " Strategy in depth"。

But when the economy is limited and weapons supply is blocked, this depth becomes unsustainable.

Iran’s control over these regions may decline, affecting its overall influence in the Middle East.

In the face of this four-faceted situation, The Iran sideOf course, I expressed strong dissatisfaction.

The Foreign Ministry soon issued a statement condemning this “illegal political operation” and warning the West would bear the consequences.

But these statements are more of a gesture, and substantive countermeasures do not follow.

Iran is also aware that China and Russia cannot fight the entire multilateral mechanism for it.

Withdrawal from the nuclear treaty becomes the last card, and the Middle East moves to the edge of nuclear weapons

When all conventional roads are blocked, what choice does Iran have?

The answer may be unsettling for the entire world.

Iranian media revealed that the authorities are considering measures including: The International Atomic Energy AgencyCooperation in verification and enrichment of uranium production.

The most extreme option is withdrawal from the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons。

This is regarded as Iran's "ultimate countermeasure", and once implemented, it will free Iran from all restrictions on nuclear activities.

At the same time, it also means completely ending the verification and supervision of the international community, which may lead to the risk of a "nuclear race" in the Middle East.

Imagine what would be the reaction of major regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt if Iran really took this step?

Will they also begin to develop their own nuclear capabilities?

This domino effect begins once the whole The Middle East RegionIt could be in a nuclear arms race.

For the Khamenei regime, this is also a crucial moment for survival and death.

The differences between domestic reformists and hardships around the "response tactics" are growing.

Reformers call for the resumption of negotiations with the United States, while hardliners advocate strengthening nuclear capabilities to "promote talks by pressure".

September 22ndA total of 70 members of parliament collectively called on the upper level to rethink the national strategy, and represented the hope to continue to deepen the development of nuclear weapons.

This intrinsic discrepancy poses unprecedented challenges to Khamenei’s political equilibrium.

Ignorarily ignoring the ideas of the hardships could cause the political foundations to shake.

If followed by the hardliners’ advice, it could lead Iran to a complete and irreversible path of confrontation with the international community.

The impact of this sanctions storm on the global governance system is also worthy of attention.

China and Russia have repeatedly emphasized that the United States and the West bypassed the "difference resolution mechanism" and forced sanctions, which seriously eroded Authority of the Security Counciland credibility.

Letting the United Nations become a "tool of unilateral pressure" will lead to a "vicious circle of alternating sanctions pressure and escalation of the situation".

This approach not only undermines the process of resolving the Iranian nuclear issue, but also weakens the international community's commitment to nuclear weapons. multilateral mechanismof confidence .

The deeper concern is that the resumption of the sanctions is like a red card warning to Iran.

It proclaims that the vague response and delayed tactics of the past have come to an end.

The next step is not about non-negotiation, but whether Iran can stabilize the regime under pressure, stabilize society, and stabilize itself.

conclusion

The resumption of sanctions marks the transformation of international sanctions from technical tools to political weapons, and multilateralism is facing serious challenges in instrumentalization.

In the future, the Middle East may enter a new round of arms race, and Iran’s choice will not only be about the survival of the regime, but will also affect the foundations of the global nuclear non-proliferation system.