According to Bloomberg on September 23, Canadian Foreign Minister Anita AnandPlanning for a recent visit to ChinaOne of the core goals is to push China to cancel tariff countermeasures on Canadian rapeseed and other products.

But a key question followed: in the context of Canada's previously active escalation of trade frictions, what exactly is the bottom line of China's "return to life"?

Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand

The Canadian Foreign Minister¡¯s visit to China was a...The Canadian initiative provoked, but eventually caught itself in passivity.The trade game.

In October 2024, Canada chose to follow in the footsteps of the United States, imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum products.

At that time, the reason given by Canada was to "protect the safety of local industries", but anyone with a discerning eye can see that, This decision is in line with the U.S. ¡°Indo-Pacific strategy¡± and a view to seeking support from allies, as well as the intention to shift domestic economic pressure.

At that time, the Canadian auto industry was facing the dilemma of declining sales, trying to gain space for local companies by restricting Chinese products.

However, Canada has clearly underestimated China¡¯s determination and ability to defend its own interests.

As a major global trading body, China has always followed the rules of the World Trade Organization, and will inevitably take reciprocal countermeasures in the face of unreasonable trade restrictions.

China sells electric vehicles abroad

In March 2025, China adopted anti-discriminatory measures against Canada; on August 12, the Ministry of Commerce of China officially identified the existence of dumping on imported oil seeds originating in Canada. 75.8% margin imposed on all Canadian rapeseed exporting businesses since August 14¡£

This series of measures is not ¡°deliberate¡±, but based on sufficient investigative evidence and legitimate trade rules, and is a reasonable response to Canadian unilateralism.

The effect of counter-measures quickly appeared, and the Canadian agricultural sector took the lead in feeling the "pain".

China used to be an important market for Canadian rapeseed exports, with an annual transaction volume of US $3.6 billion. However, the sudden restriction of this market put 40,000 rapeseed growers in western Canada in trouble, with a per capita loss of tens of thousands of dollars.

In addition to farmers, Canadian rapeseed processing enterprises are also facing the risk of shutdown, and the upstream and downstream jobs in related industrial chains show signs of instability. Protests from major agricultural provinces have gradually spread to the federal government level, which has also become an important domestic pressure to push the Canadian Foreign Minister to prepare for his visit to China.

Canadian rapeseed

What makes Canada even more troublesome is that it has also fallen into the "sandwich dilemma" between China and the United States in the trade game.

Canada has long been economically and diplomatically dependent on the United States. The previous tariffs imposed on China were largely to match the US trade policy.

But this ¡°addiction¡± strategy did not benefit Canada:On the one hand, the U.S. has not opened up more markets for Canada while imposing tariffs on China, but has set up barriers to Canada in some areas of agricultural products.

On the other hand, when Canada wants to cancel tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for Chinese concessions, it is also concerned to affect the negotiation process of the Mexican Agreement, fearing to blame the United States.

This difficult situation has made Canada passive in negotiations with China.

US President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Carney

After all, the essence of diplomatic negotiations is the quantity of codes, and Canada's visit to China is limited.

Based on current public information,The ¡°exchange conditions¡± that can be proposed by Canada are mainly focused on two aspects:

The first is to review tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel and aluminum products, and the second is to propose cooperation in the fields of energy and climate governance.

However, a careful analysis will show that the ¡°golden content¡± of these codes is not high.

The review of tariffs is essentially just ¡°correction of previous mistakes¡±. China has long made it clear that as long as Canada cancels discriminatory trade measures, China's countermeasures can also be adjusted accordingly.This is not an ¡°additional benefit¡± that Canadians can use to negotiate.

In terms of energy cooperation, although Canada has a wealth of liquefied natural gas resources, China has long achieved diversification in energy imports, and the import channels from Russia, Central Asia and other regions are stable, Canada is not irreplaceable.

Added Relationship

As for climate governance cooperation, this is indeed the common interest of China and Canada, but it obviously cannot be a "key bargaining chip" alone in exchange for China's withdrawal of tariffs.

On the other hand, China has always taken the initiative in this trade game, and its core demands are also very clear.

As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized when he met Anand in Kuala Lumpur in July this year, The relationship has been broken over the past few years, and the reasons for this are clear.The Chinese side firmly opposes the widespread concept of national security and the unreasonable repression of Chinese enterprises.

China's ambassador to Canada has also made it clear that China's countermeasures are not "permanent", but are provided that the Canadian side expresses concrete sincerity and action, rather than just rest on verbal requests.

From the current situation, the upcoming visit of the Canadian foreign minister to China can indeed provide an opportunity for the easing of trade relations with China, but whether this opportunity can be seized, the key is still on the Canadian side itself.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with his Canadian counterpart in Kuala Lumpur in July this year

If Canada still holds the mentality of "wanting benefits but not being willing to pay", or continues to be restrained by the United States and dare not take substantive actions, then this visit to China is likely to be just "gesture diplomacy" and it is difficult to really solve the problem.

After all, in international trade, only equal consultation, mutual benefit and win-win can bring bilateral relations back on track, which is both China's expectations and the only correct option for Canada to get out of the current trouble.