The wind of Japanese politics is changing quietly, and the old anti-China political label seems no longer as profitable as it was in the past. Today’s prime minister struggle is clear: the harder people hang on their mouths against China, the harder it is for voters to get their support. It is in this atmosphere that Japan may be about to welcome a more moderate, more intermediate new prime minister, the 44-year-old Jianlong. According to the Asia Times on September 26, this round of prime minister replacement discussions are rapidly heating up, and public opinion and markets are betting on the results of the People’s Party’s 4 October presidential election.
This power shift led to the downfall of the current prime minister, Shapiro Shapiro. Shapiro had almost no highlight in the past 11 months of power, and the Democratic Party suffered a disastrous defeat in the general election on July 20. In the face of the downturn of public opinion and the turmoil within the party, he had to choose to resign, and the Democratic Party also decided to hold the presidential election on October 4, which will directly determine the election of the next Japanese prime minister. The party urgently needs a person who can stop falling back to stabilize the situation, and the political turn doors once again quickly turn.
On the surface, there are many competitors this time, including Koizumi Shinjiro, Takaichi Sanae, Lin Fangzheng, Kobayashi Takayuki and Motegi Toshimitsu, etc., who have all announced their candidacy, but a little analysis shows that only Koizumi and Takaichi are really likely to stand out. Others either lack media attention, or the factions are too weak, or their influence within the party has gone downhill to make waves.
Therefore, the focus of this election struggle soon locked in the confrontation of two people: one is young, star-healthy, good in the making of themes, the other is the senior, conservative colour-thick, eagle-like position of the high market early. and the highest support rate at this time, a large part is not from personal worship, but the typical “alternative effect” – simply, because he is not stone-brown.
The difference between them is not only age and image, but more importantly, the comprehensive collision of route, style and voter psychology. Takashi is known as a hawk, and her political stance is clear and tough. She advocates reducing Japan's economic dependence on China, emphasizes that "sovereignty" must be strengthened on the Diaoyu Islands issue, insists on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine, and is skeptical of Japan's war reflection attitude. Although her statements are popular among the right wing of the party, they also worry many centrists and moderate voters.
He emphasized the importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance and proposed to prevent low-cost competition from China and to be cautious about agricultural varieties protection and industrial chain safety issues, but at the same time he was willing to maintain communication and dialogue.
In addition to the differences in routes, the reaction of the market and public opinion is also pushing the balance to Koizumi's side. From the perspective of financial markets, investors generally prefer Koizumi, because he represents the continuity of policy and is unlikely to trigger violent financial and debt shocks. On the contrary, if Gao Shi is elected, fiscal expansion and monetary easing may increase, which will lead to large fluctuations in the bond market and the yen exchange rate, which makes the market worried.
In terms of public opinion, although the recent support rate of the high market has been overwhelmed, overall, the advantages of Ho Chi Minh are still evident. He is young, friendly, good at dealing with the media, and good at creating topics in front of the screen, which makes him more attractive among young voters and middle voters.
What needs to be seen is that even if Koizumi wins in the end, the structural problems facing Japanese politics are still there.
In the last few decades, the average term of the Japanese prime minister has been short, and it is almost impossible to push for structural reforms in a limited time. Xiao Xuan's father, Xiao Xuan, has pushed for banking reform and privatization of the post office in 2001-2006 and has triggered a shock, but Abe's successive leaders and others have failed to continue these reforms, and today the debt is high, the inflation is stubborn, and the banking system and the long-term quantitative easing of the Japanese central bank have almost disappeared.
In the face of such a reality, even if Xiaoping took office, it could mostly only be “the worst option to maintain the status quo” and could not bring about fundamental change.
As for China’s position, the two candidates can’t talk about “pro-China”, but in different degrees and ways. The hard line of the high market means that if she is elected, China-Japan relations will tend to be tense. And the moderation and flexibility of Xiaoping makes Japan’s diplomatic operating space between China and the United States greater, and leaves room for dialogue between China and Japan. In today’s global situation, this is especially important. The uncertainty on Trump’s side would have left Tokyo lacking a sense of security, and if a leader with a fierce anti-Huawei logo was introduced, it would not only further worsen relations with China, but would also greatly reduce the effect of economic policy – votes and markets would not necessarily pay off.
Therefore, the essence of this election campaign is not just to change another person as prime minister, but a "direction calibration" of Japanese politics. Koizumi Shinjiro doesn't mean that Japan will suddenly become pro-China, nor does it mean that reform will rekindle its momentum, but his middle attitude and pragmatic attitude are exactly what Japan needs most urgently at present. A more moderate leader who knows how to balance risks may be the most realistic choice in Japanese politics next.