Ukraine has recently made another "big move". Zelensky publicly asked the United States for Tomahawk cruise missiles.It’s not just a few missiles as easy, but a naked “red line” probe.
If the fire on the front line is still normal operation, Then once the "strike axis" comes into play, the entire warfare may be completely "drawn from power",The nerves of Moscow were shaken. Putin's response is no longer vague.
This conflict burned from Donbass to the gates of the Kremlin. It is no longer a war of attrition between you and me, but an all-round "opening book" at the strategic, psychological and diplomatic levels.
Ukraine is betting big: the calculation behind long-range missiles
This time Ukraine wants a Tomahawk, not on a whim, let alone a desperate stake. The shift from defence to “attack as a guardian” was a strategic adjustment under the continued passivity of the Ukrainian army on the battlefield.
In the direction of Donbass, the Russian army turns forward, the Ukrainian defense line is tightened, the supply line is frequently broken, and the guns can not be fought. It was Zelensky who played the card of "distance strike", trying to drive the war to the mainland of Russia, creating a double psychological and strategic pressure.
The "Taxic" missile, although technically the birth of a long time, but its symbolic significance is far greater than the role of the battlefield, the United States each time the outbound of the war ax, is basically a signal of "downward bet", Iraq, Syria, the Southern Alliance, and other countries. These places have been "patronized" by it, and Zelensky wants it this time not to fight it now, but to use it as a "big stick at the negotiating table."
The Ukrainian senior authorities themselves have said that this is to “have it, not necessarily use it.”In other words, to tell the Russians, “You better don’t force me, otherwise I dare to throw it away.”
The United States did not rush to promise, Biden hesitated before, Trump came to power after more to calculate, after all, once this matter broke up, the Russian side is really angry, So the West’s strategy now is to cut a piece of meat, commonly called “cutting sausages.”
From the initial rifle ammunition, to the subsequent "Hymas" rockets, to the F-16 fighter, every step was observed by Russia's reaction.The appearance of Tomahawk is just the latest round of this "red line limit test".
But Ukraine is not stupid, looking at the mouth of the West promises to slow down, and began to think about their own home, After Germany's "Golden Bull" missile aid was discontinued, Kiev simply built its own "Firebird" cruise missile.Although technical maturity is still far less than the tactical ax, but the symbolic significance is equally not small, and I can do things without relying on you.
It also shows that Ukraine has already realized, The aid from the West will not be endless, sooner or later it will depend on itself.
Is Moscow panicking? The Kremlin's shield is being "upgraded and tested"
When it comes to "Tomahawk" hitting the gate of Moscow, it is not only a military issue, but also a political earthquake. In recent years, Putin has emphasized the “absolute security” of Russia’s mainland, especially in the defense area of the capital, which is the “heart zone” of Russia.
But modern warfare is not absolutely safe. Even if the S-400 and S-500 are said to be able to intercept "extraterrestrial meteorites", but in the face of low-air cruise missiles, especially saturated attacks, it must be.
In recent weeks, air defense exercises in Moscow have accelerated significantly.Not only training troops, but also "vaccinating" the people. What is impressive is that the interception fire over the Kremlin has been photographed more than once Formerly drones, now cruise missiles, the Russian capital air defense system, is being forced by reality to "upgrade to strange."
More difficult is that the "Tax" is not an ordinary military target, its potential target, most likely not a military camp,Instead of symbolic buildings, imagine if the palace, national television, and even the ruble trading system were “greeted” by missiles. That psychological shock is no less than 911.
Russia's internal trust in the government, support for the war,Very likely to shake quickly due to a hit.
When Russia feels an "existential threat", the option of tactical nuclear weapons may be put on the table. Russia's own national security documents have long stated that, When a country is at risk of being destroyed, even by conventional weapons, it can use nuclear weapons to secure itself, this is not a false voice, but a policy option that really exists.
The problem is that if we really want to get there, the cost will be global. Once Russia uses tactical nuclear bombs, no matter where it hits, the entire international community will face huge political and moral challenges. And this is also the reason why Putin is too late to dare to "push the button": the cost is too high, the consequences are too uncontrollable, and he may also be re-phasized.
In addition, Ukrainian rumors hit Moscow, and there is also a layer of "tiger off mountains" meaning, The pressure on the front line was so great that the Russian forces were forced to shift the air defense forces backwards.
Once Moscow and other places become "key defense zones", the Russian air cover on the eastern front could become thin.To provide more space for Ukrainian F-16s and drones, this tactical operation seems to be risky. The actual old-fashioned, is typical "with the back of the front."
The critical point of escalation of conflict, how far from us?
The "Tomahawk" missile has not really entered the Ukrainian border yet, but this conflict has quietly entered a critical point of "qualitative change". In the past two years, most of the Russia-Ukraine war has been on the ground and in limited air strikes. However, once weapons of long-range attack are massively intervened, the war is transformed from "you die and I live" into "extra-limit warfare across the territory".
At that time, The front line is no longer the main battlefield, energy systems, power grids, transport hubs, government buildings.Could be targets, The logic of war is also completely changed: not “winning a village.”Instead of "paralyzing the other country", this model has almost no winners.
Even worse, winter is coming, and for Ukraine, it’s both an opportunity and a trap.Winter energy tensions, people rely on heating, once energy facilities are hit, it can cause social unrest, However, the accuracy of missiles is easy to make mistakes in bad weather, and if they miss, they may accidentally injure civilians.
Fighting correctly is deterrent, and not fighting is disaster.
Looking at all this, the international community is a little "helpless".The United Nations shouted loudly, but no one listened. European countries were tired of dealing with refugees, energy, and inflation, and had no energy to be peacemakers. China and some neutral countries attempted to mediate, but both sides did not trust each other's sincerity, and the mediation was motionless.
And from the perspective of the game theory, the Russian and Ukrainian sides have fallen into the “prisoner trouble”, Whoever retreats one after another may be scolded as "weak" at home, and whoever escalates first may completely detonate the whole situation.
This is also the reason why this war has been dragged, burned, fought, and sooner and later has not seen its end.
The "Tomahawk" has not yet landed, but it has made the entire war situation "take off". Ukraine wants to break the situation, Russia wants to stabilize the situation, the West is testing on the edge, and the international community is waiting and watching. This conflict is no longer a simple territorial dispute, but has become the touchstone of modern warfare mode, strategic deterrence boundary and the wisdom of big power game.
Every decision, may be the first domino card, now the question is no longer "who can win", Instead, “who can hold,” there may still be a window of negotiation in the future, but that window is blackened by war every day.