Boeing's massive orders are close to the doorstep, but what Trump most wanted to get, the Chinese side has not let go for the time being.
On September 23rd, two pieces of news about Sino-US economic and trade collided.
U.S. Ambassador to China Pond Wei revealed that China and the United States about Boeing's "enormous" aircraft orders have talked about the final phase, close to the doorstep, Bloomberg has previously released, saying Boeing wants to reach a large deal with China for 500 aircraft.
On the same day, the head of the US Congress to visit China, Mr. Smith, said that the Sino-U.S. rare earth dispute has not yet been resolved, saying that China's rare earth magnets exported to the United States in August, compared with 11.8%, the ratio also decreased by 4.7%, even if the total export volume is the highest this year, the core control is not easy.
These two things come together, what do they hide?
First, we need to see a key signal.
China has never talked about cooperation, but there must be a bottom line for cooperation. The United States wants to press one thing on another and exchange interests for strategic chips, but there is no door.
Take a look at Boeing’s business.
Why is China at this time cumbersome, talking about Boeing’s business orders?
First of all, we need to look at China’s civil aviation.
The Chinese Civil Aviation Journal's July data clearly says that more than 800 new passenger aircraft will be added to the country in the next three years, and Airbus's old models are early at the time of updating.
At present, the share of Boeing aircraft is 35% and 32%, respectively, and the purchase of new aircraft is a normal operational requirement.
More importantly, Boeing needs this big business too much now.
Boeing has been at a low last year, with global orders falling and falling, slowing down this year, increasing orders in the first half, and increasing deliveries, but still losing hundreds of millions in the second quarter.
China used to be one of Boeing's main customers. If the order for these 500 aircraft is landed, it will not only increase the backlog of orders by another large piece, but also support the profit target in the fourth quarter.
But Boeing is in a hurry, not for China to make concessions.
China's first half with Airbus's 300 orders have already been delivered, plus China's own domestic large aircraft has also opened normal operations, with options in hand, negotiations naturally have an end.
Take a look at Trump’s most remarkable rare land.
The U.S. Department of Energy issued a statement in June, saying that more than $2 billion was spent on building a domestic supply chain, but now refining capacity can be used by 12%.
We all know that high-end manufacturing is basically not separate from rare earth, Ford car in August because of not enough rare earth magnets, stopped the Michigan electric car plant, a day of more than 5 million losses; even the F-35 fighter engine production, may be because of the lack of materials reduced production by 10%.
So it is obvious that the United States is wanting to take Boeing orders as "click bricks" and change the rare-earth control sludge, which is too loud.
China's response is clear, the total volume of rare-earth exports has increased, but let's look at it, most of them are low-added value primary products, high-end chips, high-purity materials for military and industrial use, and control is half in motion.
Ganzhou Rare Earth's August report shows that our refining recovery rate is 92%, while that of the most advanced factory in the United States is only 65%, and the cost is three times that of ours. With such strength, how could he let go casually?
The current situation in the United States is quite contradictory.
On the one hand, the chain of interests behind Boeing can't afford to drag it.
The American Aviation Industry Association has estimated that Boeing directly led to 1.3 million jobs, and the Ohio, Washington, these "shaking state" parts factories, all the Trump midterm election box office.
Before the order was delayed, the stock price of Boeing dropped by 12 percent, and lawmakers wrote letters to the White House every day to pressure Trump not to rush?
But on the other hand, the United States does not dare to struggle with China. after all, the taste of the rare earth card neck is too painful, if it really annoys the Chinese side, the consequences are even worse.
Now that this right-wing is difficult, it makes the negotiating tactic of the United States turbulent.
As soon as the U.S. Treasury Secretary said that "the negotiations went smoothly", Trump turned his head and used tariffs and purchased Russian oil to make difficulties. The United States wanted to force China to make concessions by this trick, but the result was bound to backfire.
In the end, this is the “coding equality” comparison.
China’s attitude has always been clear: cooperation can be, but it must be mutually beneficial and win-win, not unilateral concessions.
If Boeing's order wants to land, the United States must show sincerity and don't make small moves on tariffs and technical restrictions; If China wants to let go of rare earths, the United States has to give up its containment thinking and sit down and talk on an equal footing.
The current situation is very telling. China has not relaxed the export of rare earths just because Boeing is about to negotiate, nor has it closed the door of Boeing just because rare earths have not been negotiated.
This confidence all comes from industrial strength.
The C919 core component autonomy rate is 82%, the first half delivered about 30 units, slowly replacing Boeing; and Rare Earth is not only strong in its own technology, but also in Myanmar and Mongolia, the supply chain is very stable.
Although it is hard to say how the situation will develop next, one thing is clear:
If the United States can face the concerns of the Chinese side and talk well, Boeing may become the "breaking point" of Sino-U.S. relations, but if it is also thinking about pressuring coercion, the rare "cursed curse" will only be tightened, and other areas of counter-reaction may follow.
This world is not the age of who can say the calculation. to do "big", you have to observe the rules, talk the same, otherwise it is useless to rush.