The Observer Network by Nguyen Jaki
Chinese buyers bought $12.6 billion worth of U.S. soybeans in 2024, mostly for animal feed, according to official data. This scale is eight times the sales of beef and beef products from the United States to China, and exceeds the total export volume of aircraft and parts from the United States to China of 11.6 billion dollars in the same year.
Today last year, Chinese buyers had ordered 40% of U.S. soybeans overseas sales; however, from the end of May this year, U.S. soybeans found that Chinese buyers had “disappeared.”
According to the British "Economist", consulting the official records of the United States dating back to 1998 is the first time in nearly 30 years that China has not purchased any American soybeans.
The harvest season is approaching, and the Trump administration’s four rounds of trade talks with China still don’t come with good news. The Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland has been upset for the first time when he looks at the soya fields that have grown to the heights.
Like countless colleagues, he is not only worried that this year's soybeans have nowhere to sell, but also worried about whether the farm on which his family has depended for generations can continue. He is well aware that many family-owned farms in the United States have gradually grown and developed by relying on China's "unlimited" demand for American soybeans.
“For our industry, this is a level 5 fire alert crisis (the most severe level of fires in the United States, which is extremely rare and generally indicates that the fires are out of control),” said Lagrange, chairman of the American Soybean Association.
Darin Johnson, chairman of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association and fourth-generation farmer, also told the Financial Times, “We are in a very urgent time, even if we can finally reach an agreement (with China) and not catch up with this year’s harvest season.”
Increasingly, according to the "Financial Times" on the 27th report, the current cost of fertilizer, steel and other production materials due to the tariff policy continues to rise, and the excess supply of soybeans is further lowering the selling price, the U.S. soybeans are under double pressure, even the most basic balance of payments seems to be a promise.
AP on the same day that while Trump still has a strong support base in rural areas across the United States, the current severe survival trouble is continuing to test the peasant community’s loyalty to him.This political pressure has also forced the Trump administration to show its intention to subsidize U.S. agriculture this week in an attempt to ease soya-farming anxiety.
But is that enough? American bean farmers also have this suspicion.
US New York Times map.
The plight of American farmers intensifies, and the Trump administration is busy "drawing cakes"
Earlier this year, the Trump administration unilaterally provoked a trade conflict, and the U.S. agricultural industry suffered seriously.
According to the Associated Press, U.S. “bullying” not only affected U.S. corn, corn and cotton farmers, but even fishermen who fished like cotton did not survive. Among them, the situation of soybeans is difficult. As the U.S. largest food export category, soybeans accounted for about 14% of the total export of U.S. agricultural products, occupying a significant position in export trade, and the degree of its impact is far greater than other categories.
As the soybean harvest period approaches, industry anxiety continues to mount. "To tell the truth, I'm increasingly worried that time is running out," said Jim Sutter, CEO of the American Soybean Export Association.
The Trump administration is also clearly aware of the seriousness of the problem, and the pressure to push for a trade deal with China is growing.
"We are very concerned about the fact that China has stopped buying our agricultural products," Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, said in an interview with Fox News on Thursday (25th) local time.
On the same day, Trump revealed to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House that he was considering launching an agricultural assistance program, which planned to subsidize part of the tariff revenue to the affected farmers. "We will take out some tariff funds and distribute them to our farmers... This money is not much relative to the total amount, but it is not a small amount for farmers."
He also referred to the current phase as a “transitional phase,” trying to reassure farmers that “they will be affected in the short term before tariffs ultimately benefit them.”
On September 25, local time, Trump held a press conference at the White House.
On the same day, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Rowling opened her third term visit to Missouri, inspecting local farms and speaking at an agricultural forum.
Soybeans are Minnesota's largest agricultural export product, and more than half of the state's soybeans are sold to the international market. In the face of hundreds of agricultural practitioners on the scene, Rawlings admitted that the government was not ready to announce a specific agricultural assistance plan, but the relevant plan was being promoted.
Meanwhile, she is still “painting big cakes” for the industry, “I know we haven’t seen any obvious changes (in the trade war) yet, but by next year, we sincerely believe ... the future is not bright.”
Rollins also argued that in the long run, U.S. farmers need to actively explore new markets and stop taking “a country that does not meet our values” as a major agricultural purchaser.
Sukan of the American Soybean Export Association also stated that U.S. farmers have long regarded China as their biggest customer, and that this long-formed market pattern “gives China a negotiation code.”
“I think that’s China’s strategy,” Suheng continued, “because China targets soybeans and other agricultural products is because they know that farmers have a strong lobbying power in the United States and are vital to the U.S. government.”
In this regard, the spokesman of the Chinese Embassy in the United States, Liu Ping Yu, although did not respond to specific questions about soybean procurement, but clearly called on the US side to work together with China and the essence of China-US economic and trade cooperation is mutual benefit and win-win," Liu Ping Yu told the Associated Press.
Government subsidies cannot hide anxiety, and U.S. farmers' support is tested
During Trump’s first term, most farmers were able to stand up in the trade war by relying on the government’s tens of billions of dollars in subsidies, but that was not what most farmers wanted.
They are also aware that this is just a fair deal and therefore expect Trump to give a long-term solution.
“American farmers, especially myself, don’t want subsidies,” said 52-year-old Brian Warpup.
He is from Warren, Indiana, and is the fourth generation farmer in his family. "We want to make a living by ourselves: cultivate the land, harvest crops and get the harvest from the land. For us, the last thing we want to accept is relief."
The Financial Times pointed out that the agricultural community's support for Trump is in jeopardy.
Johnson of Minnesota stressed that farmers are equally eager for free trade, and we fully understand that past trade agreements may not be perfect and need to be renegotiated," he said, "but the current situation may rapidly deteriorate and become extremely severe."
Johnson is also a fourth-generation farmer. He still believes that the Trump administration can reach a favorable trade agreement with China, but he also admits that people's patience has been exhausted after a long wait. "No one thought things would drag on so long. After all, the previous promise (Trump administration) was to reach 90 agreements within 90 days."
Ohio farmer Chris Gibbs, who had served as Republican chairman in Shelby County, voted for Trump in 2016, but later moved to the Democratic Party, and is now chairman of the county Democrat.
In his view, the agricultural subsidy provided by the Trump administration is like a "hush money", which aims to make American farmers "settle down".
American farmers are harvesting soybeans video screenshot
President of the American Soybean Association, Lagrange, tried to justify the dissatisfaction of the farmers. He explained to the Associated Press, “The vast majority of farmers have been on the side of President Trump. I think the core message the American Soybean Group wants to convey is, ‘President Trump, we will always support you. Now we also need your support.’”
Lagrange stressed that farmers, of course, thank the government for its willingness to provide short-term relief, but ultimately what they need is a stable and reliable market, “Our primary goal remains to push the United States into long-term trade agreements, especially with China, so that farmers can sell their agricultural products smoothly and build a sustainable future with long-term customers.”
Suheng, of the American Soybean Export Association, also revealed that U.S. farmers are also expanding their customer base, and he has recently travelled to Japan and Indonesia to pioneer new markets.In addition, the Chinese Taiwan region has pledged to purchase US soybeans, corn, wheat and beef worth $10 billion over the next four years.
"At present, we are vigorously promoting market diversification," he said. "But the Chinese market is so large that it is not easy to find a replacement overnight."
U.S. farmers are also struggling to expand domestic consumption: the development of the biodiesel industry has digested part of the soybeans originally used for exports, and some of the soybeans are pressed into soybean oil and soybeans.The United Soybean Board (USB) is investing funds in researching the benefits of soybeans feeding cows and pigs to expand the demand scenario.
However, Rob Ewoldt, chairman of the U.S. Soybean Foundation and Iowa farmer, is well aware that domestic demand growth is a gradual process.
“We can’t find a market to replace China at a time, which is not realistic at all, and we have to acknowledge that,” he said.
"It's at the end of the rope"
U.S. farmers have little interest in government subsidies, for one reason.
In 2019, they survived the shock of a drop in exports, relying on the $23 billion bailout subsidies provided by the first Trump administration, but only after slowing down, found that the then-lost Chinese market could not be returned.
“The last time [the United States] was in this situation, about 20 percent of our market share was taken from Brazil and could never be taken back,” said Todd Main of the Soya Association of Illinois.
Today, the same scenario is taking place, which is also the most feared thing for U.S. soybean farmers: China is purchasing record amounts of Brazilian soybeans while no US soybeans are being shipped to the Chinese market. Government data show that between January and August this year, Brazil exported 66 million tons of soybeans to China, accounting for three-quarters of its total soybeans exports.
In recent years, soybeans from Brazil, Argentina and other countries are rapidly filling the vacancy of American soybeans in the Chinese market. According to data from the General Administration of Customs of China, China will import about 105 million tons of soybeans in 2024, of which 22.13 million tons of soybeans will be imported from the United States, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; 74.65 million tons of soybeans were imported from Brazil, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In 2024, China will also import 4.1 million tons of soybeans from Argentina.
This year, Chinese buyers have continued to shift to alternative South American markets to buy cheaper soybeans. Reuters previously that Chinese soybean importers are expected to increase purchases from Argentina and Uruguay in the coming year to fill the U.S. supply gap due to the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade conflict.
According to U.S. Axios News Network reports, U.S. soybean growers will be in trouble if Chinese buyers continue away.The U.S. Soybean Association notes that U.S. farmers are now facing painful losses of $100 to $150 per acre.
This situation puts farmers in the Middle West of the United States at risk of huge losses and may even jeopardize the family farms that have been passed down for generations.
Ragland, 39, owns 4,500 acres of farmland in Magnolia, Kentucky. He originally expected his three sons to become the tenth generation farmers of his family, but if the situation doesn't change in the short term, he now worries that the painstaking efforts of nine generations will be buried in his hands.
Meanwhile, the crisis facing U.S. bean farmers is likely to escalate further.
“A decline in the agricultural economy will directly affect our small rural communities,” Johnson said, “which directly impacts the rural areas of the United States and the small towns I live in.”
US media mentioned that in addition to using tariff revenue to support farmers, the US government also plans to increase biofuel mixing quotas to boost domestic soybean demand.
Scott Gerlt, chief economist at the U.S. Soybean Association, noted that the federal bailout plan could mitigate short-term difficulties, but “cannot compensate for the permanent loss of market share caused by the expansion of production elsewhere”; likewise, the rise in the proportion of biofuels mixed is “far from sufficient to offset the decline in export demand.”
“Many farmers are currently facing financial difficulties, and the longer China is away from the U.S. soybean market, the worse the situation will be,” he added, adding that the number of bankruptcies in U.S. farms has been increasing.
According to CNN News on July 21, Ryan Loy, a promotion economist in the Arkansas University’s agricultural department responsible for tracking farm bankruptcies, said in July that the number of farm bankruptcies in the United States rose again in the first quarter of this year.
“This means that some farmers have reached the point of mountain poverty and are unable to meet their financial obligations,” Lagrange said.
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