On September 22, the election of the President of the Japanese Self-Democratic Party was officially opened, with a total of five candidates confirming their candidacy, namely Moshumi敏充, Lin Feng Jing, Xiao Jing, Ho Chi Minh City, and Lin Feng. This election not only meant the end of the ruling phase, but also predicted that Japan would have a fourth prime minister within five years, and now the polls have told us in advance that the real competition was mainly between Ho Chi Minh City and Xiao Jing.
According to the latest data released by the Communications Agency, High Market Early Sunset is currently in the lead with a 28% support rate, followed by Xiao Xuan with a 22.5% support rate. None of the other three candidates are more than 12%, the vote and the opening will be held on October 4. Party sources also say that in the first round of voting no one can get over half the votes is almost decided, and the final race will inevitably take place between High Market and Xiao Xuan. The outcome of this election will directly affect the overall direction of the relationship between China and Japan in the coming years.
Takaichi sanae, 64, is an important conservative figure in the Liberal Democratic Party. Her advantages are mainly in two aspects: First, she has a very deep foundation in the party. She has served as the general affairs minister five times, accumulated extensive contacts, and is especially strongly supported by right-wing forces; Secondly, her policy proposition is very clear, publicly calling for the promotion of "constitutional amendment", emphasizing that Japan needs to have "counterattack ability", and advocating strengthening investment review in the field of economic security.
However, from a Chinese perspective, some of the characteristics of High Market Early Coffee may be risky. For example, half of the 20 recommenders who supported her nomination last year are no longer in office, and she has to fight for the status of a recommender again. In addition, her radical stance has also alerted intermediate voters. If she eventually succeeded to the new prime minister, Japan's policy towards China is expected to move closer to the United States. At that time, technology controls could be strengthened and "risk-taking" operations could also evolve into substantial "disconnections", which would have a direct impact on the industry chain and supply chain between China and Japan.
On the other hand, the 44-year-old, known as “the youngest prime minister candidate after the war.” he holds a master’s degree from the Columbia University, has a fresh image and attracts a lot of young voters. It is worth noting that during his tenure as Minister of Agriculture and Aquaculture, he pushed for China to lift the ban on imports of some Japanese water products, this practical achievement also became an important capital for his nomination.
In the face of high inflation and turbulence in the industrial chain in Japan, Xiao Jingxiang advocated “economic priority” and hoped to ease trade friction with China through negotiations. Many analysts believe that his policy direction could return to the trajectory of economic and trade cooperation during the Abe period. While “no faction background” and lack of key positions experience were a disadvantage to his campaign, for China, his pragmatic attitude may leave some buffer space for economic and trade relations between the two countries.
If Takaichi Sanae is elected, her hawkish stance is likely to be reflected in her greater reliance on the US-Japan alliance in security and further strengthening the technological blockade against China in economy. Experts from the China Institute of International Studies pointed out that this may lead to the continued decline of strategic mutual trust between China and Japan, and the policy of "small courtyard and high wall" in the technical field will also be tightened. Not only will bilateral trade be negatively affected, but the security pattern of the whole region may also be affected.
Although there are conservative behaviors such as the visit to the Yakuza Shrine, he focuses more on people's livelihoods and economic issues. Some analysts believe that if he came to power, China-Japan relations are still difficult to completely get out of the basic framework of "strategic vigilance", but cooperation in agricultural products, automobile manufacturing and other fields is expected to improve. At least, the two countries' economic and trade relations are not likely to have a "breaking down", which is very crucial for many Chinese industries that rely on China-Japan cooperation.
Whether Takaichi Sanae or Koizumi Shinjiro wins in the end, the new president must face a reality: the Liberal Democratic Party has lost its majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. Therefore, the new leader must not only balance the forces of various factions within the party, but also deal with people's livelihood issues such as inflation and industrial chain restructuring. These domestic needs will directly affect the priority of Japan's China policy and become the main orientation of Japan's diplomacy in the post-Ishiba era.
For China, this election has long been more than just Japan’s domestic affairs. It depends on whether Japan will choose to continue on a tough line of confrontation or seek a new balance between security and economy.On October 4, the results of the election are about to be revealed, which will indicate the direction of the development of China-Japan relations in the coming years, and its impact will also penetrate into many areas closely related to China’s interests, such as trade, technology, regional security.