On December 26, 2014 (November 5, 2014 in the lunar calendar), oil prices plummeted. What did Putin use to resist Western sanctions? On the afternoon of December 26, 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from 24:00 on December 26, 2014, the price of refined oil will be lowered. The price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 520 yuan and 500 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to the retail price of No. 90 gasoline, No. 93 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (national average) will be reduced by 0.39 yuan, 0.42 yuan and 0.43 yuan per liter respectively. According to the principle of "one adjustment within ten working days" of the refined oil pricing mechanism, this is the last round of refined oil price adjustments in 2014. It is also the 11th consecutive reduction in oil prices this year. It also sets the largest decline in oil prices this year. It is worth mentioning that, unlike the previous two times due to consumption tax increases, when oil price reductions were not realized and reductions were discounted, this time the National Development and Reform Commission did not raise the consumption tax again or adopt other control measures, thus achieving this year. The largest drop in refined oil prices. Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have experienced a total of 4 increases and 15 declines. In the second half of the year, due to the international oil price supply and demand relationship and the economic situation, international oil prices have been falling all the way, hitting a five-year low. Affected by this, domestic oil prices also staged an unprecedented "11 consecutive decline". After experiencing "11 consecutive losses", the cumulative reduction for gasoline was 2205 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction for diesel was 2355 yuan/ton. The cumulative decline in the retail prices of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel per liter has exceeded 1 yuan. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel have generally fallen back to the "6 yuan era." At the same time, after two increases in refined oil consumption tax on November 29 and December 12, domestic gasoline and diesel consumption taxes rose to 1.4 yuan and 1.1 yuan per liter respectively. Was it willful to raise taxes in the past? On November 29 and December 13, my country's refined oil consumption tax was increased for two consecutive rounds. The first increase completely offset the decline in oil prices, and the second time reduced the price reduction. The car owner who was humming a tune and preparing to refuel oil prices found that a refined oil consumption tax had been shot out halfway. The most important thing about this price reduction is that the refined oil consumption tax will not be adjusted. With the expectation of falling oil prices, is it a bit willful to raise consumption tax as soon as oil prices are lowered? Is it on a whim or at will? According to the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, the current domestic refined oil consumption tax burden is obviously low, which is not conducive to guiding enterprises and residents to conserve and utilize petroleum resources and reduce air pollutant emissions. The adjustment aims to further strengthen the regulation of consumption tax in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and reasonably guide consumer demand. At the same time, taking into account the needs of macro-control and social affordability, we chose to implement it when oil prices went down, achieving the synchronization of tax increases and price reductions. Despite this, there are still two questions to be solved regarding the increase in consumption tax: 1. Long-term burden and affordability. The finance and taxation department also mentioned that these two tax increases took advantage of the window period of falling oil prices. Many consumers believe that consumption tax is, after all,"solidified" as a tax. If oil prices rise steadily in the future, will these burdens also be "solidified"? Some people cite Europe's higher consumption tax on refined oil products, but don't forget that they have high tax burdens and high welfare benefits. People expect that the finance and taxation department will have a clear account of the use of refined oil consumption tax that is committed to air pollution control. 2. Can the consumption tax achieve the expected purpose? Since the tax increase is to save energy and reduce emissions, two questions must be answered first: First, what is the specific "contribution" of automobile and other refined oil consumption to air pollutant emissions? Secondly, the price elasticity of demand for refined oil products by enterprises and residents is a quantitative analysis of the effect of price increases on curbing unreasonable consumption and guiding consumer demand. The scientific nature of tax decision-making should at least be reflected in quantitative analysis. Without quantitative research, the arbitrariness of whether to raise taxes and how much to raise taxes will make it difficult to eliminate public doubts about the willfulness of raising taxes. Against the background and expectation of falling oil prices, the pace of tax increases and the openness and transparency of decision-making cannot be ignored in guiding consumption. The "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices has brought benefits to the public, ranging from logistics and transportation to clothing and food. The fluctuations in oil prices are closely related to citizens 'lives. Objectively speaking, the "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices has brought considerable benefits to the general public. Compared with before July, this round of "11 consecutive losses" can first save car owners a lot of fuel money. Based on the cumulative reduction of 1.63 yuan per liter of No. 93 gasoline after the "11th consecutive decline", the monthly fuel consumption of private cars is 8 liters per 100 kilometers and the monthly gasoline consumption is about 130 yuan. "Oil prices have been falling continuously this year, which is a good thing for private car owners. They can save some money on driving to work." Mr. Li, who lives in Optics Valley, drives along the Third Ring Road to work in Hankou every day. He made a rough calculation and found that No. 93 gasoline dropped by 40 cents, which would save about 20 yuan when filling up a tank of oil. Compared with the oil price at the beginning of this year, the unit price of oil price has dropped by more than one point. For logistics companies, transportation fees account for more than 50% of costs, and the "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices is also a big plus for transportation and logistics companies. "In June this year, Xiamen No. 0 diesel was still 7.43 yuan/liter, but now it has dropped to 5.73 yuan/liter, a full drop of 1.7 yuan in half a year." A person in charge of a express delivery company in Xiamen admitted that although it does not feel obvious to drop a few cents each time, the cumulative impact is not small. He calculated that the company had 200 minibuses and used 30 liters of diesel a day during the peak season. If you spent 1.7 yuan less per liter, you could save tens of thousands of yuan a day. There is a possibility that it will continue to fall next year."Last week, I felt that it would be difficult to break through US$50 per barrel, but now I feel that it is very likely." said a person who has been studying oil prices for many years. This reflects the uncertainty of international oil prices. Daniel Yekin, vice chairman of energy consulting firm IHS, said shale oil development costs may be well below market estimates. IHS estimates that global oil production will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day next year, and demand will only increase by 1 million barrels per day. If there are no sudden factors that change supply and demand, the "bottom" process of oil prices may continue in the short term. Shu Zhaoxia, chief expert of the Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology, said,"Unless my country's economy shows obvious signs of improvement, it is not impossible for international oil prices to exceed US$50 per barrel and drop US$40 per barrel when entering the off-season for oil demand in January next year." Extended reading: Who is happy and who is worried about the "falling" oil prices? Extended reading: Who is happy and who is worried about the "falling" oil prices? The most unexpected thing in 2014 was the "falling" international oil prices. In just half a year, crude oil prices have been "cut in half", diving from US$115 per barrel in June this year to US$55. The era of "three-digit" oil prices seems to have come to an end. Behind the collapse in oil prices is a game between oil-producing countries and an economic competition between major countries. Saudi Arabia insists on not reducing production and launching an oil price war in an attempt to suppress the U.S. shale oil boom, while the United States is expected to take the opportunity to get rid of its dependence on the Middle East; Venezuela and Iran are feeling the sharp pain of the plunge; Western public opinion clarion sounds, arguing that oil prices will drag down the Russian economy, as they saw in 1998. The ups and downs of oil prices also record a year of turbulence in the international political landscape. Russia: Oil prices plummet, what will Putin do to counter Western sanctions? In 2014, the sharp devaluation of the ruble once again awakened Russians 'memories of their 1998 debt default. That year, the ruble collapsed within days, forcing Russia to default on its debt. That year, GDP fell by 2.5%, industrial production fell by 3%, and grain output fell by 24 million tons. Sixteen years later, the shadow of déjà vu once again hangs over Russia. In March this year, the entry of Crimea into Russia and the crisis in Ukraine triggered a Western sanctions war against Russia to force Russia to make concessions. Tear for ear, Russia "sacrificed" its trump card of natural gas to "cut off" the West's economic blockade. However, the collapse of international oil prices in the second half of the year eclipsed this trump card. For Russia, which relies heavily on raw material exports, a serious drop in oil prices is equivalent to cutting off its financial path. The fall in oil prices directly reduces Russia's budget revenue, causing an increase in the deficit and the inability to implement budget projects, which in turn exacerbates downward pressure on the economy. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev admitted that "Russia risks falling into a deep recession." Will Russia repeat its economic collapse 16 years ago? The answer has not yet been announced, but many Western media have sounded the clarion call of "victory in sanctions." Even U.S. President Obama himself said that the country led by Putin is now dealing with "the collapse of the ruble exchange rate, financial crisis and economic recession." Russia's economic situation has proved that Putin's actions in Crimea are wrong. Russia has described this year's fall in oil prices as a "trap" for the United States. Former Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said bluntly that the United States is conspiring with crude oil exporting countries to lower oil prices to put pressure on Russia, which is a conspiracy by the United States. Faced with the "perfect storm" of plummeting oil prices, Western sanctions and capital flight, how can Russia escape the eye of the storm? Shi Ze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that Russia has strong endurance and maneuver capabilities, and its economy will not "collapse." Moreover, Russia has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and is more able to take powerful anti-sanctions measures. "The Russian economy has a good foundation, and it doesn't matter if oil prices drop to $40. The Russian economy will also overcome the current crisis, how long will it take? If the worst comes to the worst, it will take almost two years." Putin was still full of confidence at this year's annual press conference. In 2014, when oil prices were volatile, Russia launched a "war to defend the ruble." OPEC: In order to protect the market, endure the pain of "cutting meat" This year, a battle between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producers has begun to seize market share. Abandoning OPEC's traditional strategy of limiting production to keep oil prices high, Saudi Arabia has replaced it with a new policy of defending OPEC's market share at all costs. "No matter what the price is, cutting production is not in the interest of OPEC members. It doesn't matter whether the oil price drops to $20,$40,$50 or $60." said Ali Naimi, Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia. From the outside world, this is a protracted battle. Analysts believe Saudi Arabia is challenging U.S. shale oil to defeat threats to its market share. Observers expect that the continued decline in global oil prices will quickly depress U.S. shale oil drilling activity, slow production growth and help support oil prices. At the same time,"conspiracy theories" are spreading-Saudi Arabia views low oil prices as an opportunity to put more pressure on Iran and Russia. Iraq and Russia supported Syria President Assad in the Syria civil war, and Assad is Saudi Arabia's sworn enemy. But whether the "conspiracy theory" is true or not, those countries that rely on crude oil exports as their main source of fiscal revenue have already felt the "acute pain" of low oil prices. Gulf oil-producing countries have huge foreign exchange reserves and are capable of withstanding shocks for some time. And those member states with weak financial resources can only grit their teeth and hold on. Venezuela, which has lost the support of high oil prices, will encounter trouble for high welfare and subsidies in the future. Now, Venezuela is deeply troubled by inflation, shortages of consumer goods, and rising crime rates, which directly affect the Maduro regime. Oil prices have fallen into the quagmire of the global financial crisis. OPEC is very sad that Iran has suffered from international sanctions and currency decline on the one hand. On the other hand, lower oil prices have caused a sharp drop in revenue and lost 5% of GDP. While President Rouhani was gearing up for economic reconstruction, he was bound by the sharp drop in international oil prices. During the critical period of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, the support of high oil prices has been lost, and the confidence in the negotiations has probably been reduced by three points. However, this year, the extremist organization "Islamic State" attacked cities and lands in Syria and Iraq, but did not trigger crude oil price turmoil. Analysts believe investors are gradually realizing that none of this poses an urgent need for supply. On the other hand, the turmoil in crude oil prices is no longer only affected by geographical conflicts. This time, economic logic has defeated international political logic. US: Does shale oil change the international political landscape? In 1973, in order to crack down on Israel and the countries that support Israel, OPEC announced an oil embargo, causing oil prices to surge and reducing U.S. GDP growth by 4.7%, directly prompting it to change its foreign policy towards the Middle East. Since then, getting rid of its dependence on oil in the Middle East has become a major issue facing the United States. After years of exploration and development, U.S. shale oil can now finally get a share of the energy market and try to compete with Saudi Arabia. The United States, which was the world's largest oil importer until 2009, is expected to become the world's largest oil producer by 2020. Will new energy make North America the new Middle East? If this conjecture becomes a reality, the United States 'dependence and influence on the Middle East will decline, the United States' interest in preventing global warming will decline, and Europe's dependence on Russia for natural gas will also decline. As concerns about oil shortages diminish, the United States will also begin to explore new resource diplomacy. The New York Times article stated that as the United States 'dependence on energy in the Middle East decreases, Washington's willingness to take risks and responsibilities there will naturally decrease. At least in this era of fiscal constraints, this willingness appears to be even more unfounded. At the same time, Asia, with rapid economic development, will become a "battleground for military experts" between the United States and other oil-producing countries. Demand from East and South Asia may be an exciting new opportunity for OPEC, with nearly 90% of oil produced in the Middle East expected to be absorbed into Asia by 2035. To this end, the United States 'Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy also came into being. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta said that by 2020, 60% of U.S. warships will be deployed in the Pacific. This means that the United States will increase its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. Once it grasps important straits in the future, oil transportation in Asia will face danger. All kinds of positive things have caused the American media to regard energy as a diplomatic "weapon" of Obama. The New York Times article even asserted that after the end of World War II, the reason of "resource shortage" has been one of the leading forces shaping global geopolitics and economy. Today, due to the technical knowledge and bold pioneering efforts of the U.S. oil and gas industry, the world has ushered in a new era.On December 26, 2014 (November 5, 2014 in the lunar calendar), oil prices plummeted. What did Putin use to resist Western sanctions? On the afternoon of December 26, 2014, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that starting from 24:00 on December 26, 2014, the price of refined oil will be lowered. The price of gasoline and diesel will be reduced by 520 yuan and 500 yuan per ton respectively, equivalent to the retail price of No. 90 gasoline, No. 93 gasoline and No. 0 diesel (national average) will be reduced by 0.39 yuan, 0.42 yuan and 0.43 yuan per liter respectively. According to the principle of "one adjustment within ten working days" of the refined oil pricing mechanism, this is the last round of refined oil price adjustments in 2014. It is also the 11th consecutive reduction in oil prices this year. It also sets the largest decline in oil prices this year. It is worth mentioning that, unlike the previous two times due to consumption tax increases, when oil price reductions were not realized and reductions were discounted, this time the National Development and Reform Commission did not raise the consumption tax again or adopt other control measures, thus achieving this year. The largest drop in refined oil prices. Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have experienced a total of 4 increases and 15 declines. In the second half of the year, due to the international oil price supply and demand relationship and the economic situation, international oil prices have been falling all the way, hitting a five-year low. Affected by this, domestic oil prices also staged an unprecedented "11 consecutive decline". After experiencing "11 consecutive losses", the cumulative reduction for gasoline was 2205 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction for diesel was 2355 yuan/ton. The cumulative decline in the retail prices of No. 90 gasoline and No. 0 diesel per liter has exceeded 1 yuan. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel have generally fallen back to the "6 yuan era." At the same time, after two increases in refined oil consumption tax on November 29 and December 12, domestic gasoline and diesel consumption taxes rose to 1.4 yuan and 1.1 yuan per liter respectively. Was it willful to raise taxes in the past? On November 29 and December 13, my country's refined oil consumption tax was increased for two consecutive rounds. The first increase completely offset the decline in oil prices, and the second time reduced the price reduction. The car owner who was humming a tune and preparing to refuel oil prices found that a refined oil consumption tax had been shot out halfway. The most important thing about this price reduction is that the refined oil consumption tax will not be adjusted. With the expectation of falling oil prices, is it a bit willful to raise consumption tax as soon as oil prices are lowered? Is it on a whim or at will? According to the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation, the current domestic refined oil consumption tax burden is obviously low, which is not conducive to guiding enterprises and residents to conserve and utilize petroleum resources and reduce air pollutant emissions. The adjustment aims to further strengthen the regulation of consumption tax in promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and reasonably guide consumer demand. At the same time, taking into account the needs of macro-control and social affordability, we chose to implement it when oil prices went down, achieving the synchronization of tax increases and price reductions. Despite this, there are still two questions to be solved regarding the increase in consumption tax: 1. Long-term burden and affordability. The finance and taxation department also mentioned that these two tax increases took advantage of the window period of falling oil prices. Many consumers believe that consumption tax is, after all,"solidified" as a tax. If oil prices rise steadily in the future, will these burdens also be "solidified"? Some people cite Europe's higher consumption tax on refined oil products, but don't forget that they have high tax burdens and high welfare benefits. People expect that the finance and taxation department will have a clear account of the use of refined oil consumption tax that is committed to air pollution control. 2. Can the consumption tax achieve the expected purpose? Since the tax increase is to save energy and reduce emissions, two questions must be answered first: First, what is the specific "contribution" of automobile and other refined oil consumption to air pollutant emissions? Secondly, the price elasticity of demand for refined oil products by enterprises and residents is a quantitative analysis of the effect of price increases on curbing unreasonable consumption and guiding consumer demand. The scientific nature of tax decision-making should at least be reflected in quantitative analysis. Without quantitative research, the arbitrariness of whether to raise taxes and how much to raise taxes will make it difficult to eliminate public doubts about the willfulness of raising taxes. Against the background and expectation of falling oil prices, the pace of tax increases and the openness and transparency of decision-making cannot be ignored in guiding consumption. The "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices has brought benefits to the public, ranging from logistics and transportation to clothing and food. The fluctuations in oil prices are closely related to citizens 'lives. Objectively speaking, the "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices has brought considerable benefits to the general public. Compared with before July, this round of "11 consecutive losses" can first save car owners a lot of fuel money. Based on the cumulative reduction of 1.63 yuan per liter of No. 93 gasoline after the "11th consecutive decline", the monthly fuel consumption of private cars is 8 liters per 100 kilometers and the monthly gasoline consumption is about 130 yuan. "Oil prices have been falling continuously this year, which is a good thing for private car owners. They can save some money on driving to work." Mr. Li, who lives in Optics Valley, drives along the Third Ring Road to work in Hankou every day. He made a rough calculation and found that No. 93 gasoline dropped by 40 cents, which would save about 20 yuan when filling up a tank of oil. Compared with the oil price at the beginning of this year, the unit price of oil price has dropped by more than one point. For logistics companies, transportation fees account for more than 50% of costs, and the "11 consecutive decline" in oil prices is also a big plus for transportation and logistics companies. "In June this year, Xiamen No. 0 diesel was still 7.43 yuan/liter, but now it has dropped to 5.73 yuan/liter, a full drop of 1.7 yuan in half a year." A person in charge of a express delivery company in Xiamen admitted that although it does not feel obvious to drop a few cents each time, the cumulative impact is not small. He calculated that the company had 200 minibuses and used 30 liters of diesel a day during the peak season. If you spent 1.7 yuan less per liter, you could save tens of thousands of yuan a day. There is a possibility that it will continue to fall next year."Last week, I felt that it would be difficult to break through US$50 per barrel, but now I feel that it is very likely." said a person who has been studying oil prices for many years. This reflects the uncertainty of international oil prices. Daniel Yekin, vice chairman of energy consulting firm IHS, said shale oil development costs may be well below market estimates. IHS estimates that global oil production will increase by 2.2 million barrels per day next year, and demand will only increase by 1 million barrels per day. If there are no sudden factors that change supply and demand, the "bottom" process of oil prices may continue in the short term. Shu Zhaoxia, chief expert of the Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology, said,"Unless my country's economy shows obvious signs of improvement, it is not impossible for international oil prices to exceed US$50 per barrel and drop US$40 per barrel when entering the off-season for oil demand in January next year." Extended reading: Who is happy and who is worried about the "falling" oil prices? Extended reading: Who is happy and who is worried about the "falling" oil prices? The most unexpected thing in 2014 was the "falling" international oil prices. In just half a year, crude oil prices have been "cut in half", diving from US$115 per barrel in June this year to US$55. The era of "three-digit" oil prices seems to have come to an end. Behind the collapse in oil prices is a game between oil-producing countries and an economic competition between major countries. Saudi Arabia insists on not reducing production and launching an oil price war in an attempt to suppress the U.S. shale oil boom, while the United States is expected to take the opportunity to get rid of its dependence on the Middle East; Venezuela and Iran are feeling the sharp pain of the plunge; Western public opinion clarion sounds, arguing that oil prices will drag down the Russian economy, as they saw in 1998. The ups and downs of oil prices also record a year of turbulence in the international political landscape. Russia: Oil prices plummet, what will Putin do to counter Western sanctions? In 2014, the sharp devaluation of the ruble once again awakened Russians 'memories of their 1998 debt default. That year, the ruble collapsed within days, forcing Russia to default on its debt. That year, GDP fell by 2.5%, industrial production fell by 3%, and grain output fell by 24 million tons. Sixteen years later, the shadow of déjà vu once again hangs over Russia. In March this year, the entry of Crimea into Russia and the crisis in Ukraine triggered a Western sanctions war against Russia to force Russia to make concessions. Tear for ear, Russia "sacrificed" its trump card of natural gas to "cut off" the West's economic blockade. However, the collapse of international oil prices in the second half of the year eclipsed this trump card. For Russia, which relies heavily on raw material exports, a serious drop in oil prices is equivalent to cutting off its financial path. The fall in oil prices directly reduces Russia's budget revenue, causing an increase in the deficit and the inability to implement budget projects, which in turn exacerbates downward pressure on the economy. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev admitted that "Russia risks falling into a deep recession." Will Russia repeat its economic collapse 16 years ago? The answer has not yet been announced, but many Western media have sounded the clarion call of "victory in sanctions." Even U.S. President Obama himself said that the country led by Putin is now dealing with "the collapse of the ruble exchange rate, financial crisis and economic recession." Russia's economic situation has proved that Putin's actions in Crimea are wrong. Russia has described this year's fall in oil prices as a "trap" for the United States. Former Russian Finance Minister Kudrin said bluntly that the United States is conspiring with crude oil exporting countries to lower oil prices to put pressure on Russia, which is a conspiracy by the United States. Faced with the "perfect storm" of plummeting oil prices, Western sanctions and capital flight, how can Russia escape the eye of the storm? Shi Ze, a researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, said that Russia has strong endurance and maneuver capabilities, and its economy will not "collapse." Moreover, Russia has a large amount of foreign exchange reserves and is more able to take powerful anti-sanctions measures. "The Russian economy has a good foundation, and it doesn't matter if oil prices drop to $40. The Russian economy will also overcome the current crisis, how long will it take? If the worst comes to the worst, it will take almost two years." Putin was still full of confidence at this year's annual press conference. In 2014, when oil prices were volatile, Russia launched a "war to defend the ruble." OPEC: In order to protect the market, endure the pain of "cutting meat" This year, a battle between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC oil producers has begun to seize market share. Abandoning OPEC's traditional strategy of limiting production to keep oil prices high, Saudi Arabia has replaced it with a new policy of defending OPEC's market share at all costs. "No matter what the price is, cutting production is not in the interest of OPEC members. It doesn't matter whether the oil price drops to $20,$40,$50 or $60." said Ali Naimi, Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia. From the outside world, this is a protracted battle. Analysts believe Saudi Arabia is challenging U.S. shale oil to defeat threats to its market share. Observers expect that the continued decline in global oil prices will quickly depress U.S. shale oil drilling activity, slow production growth and help support oil prices. At the same time,"conspiracy theories" are spreading-Saudi Arabia views low oil prices as an opportunity to put more pressure on Iran and Russia. Iraq and Russia supported Syria President Assad in the Syria civil war, and Assad is Saudi Arabia's sworn enemy. But whether the "conspiracy theory" is true or not, those countries that rely on crude oil exports as their main source of fiscal revenue have already felt the "acute pain" of low oil prices. Gulf oil-producing countries have huge foreign exchange reserves and are capable of withstanding shocks for some time. And those member states with weak financial resources can only grit their teeth and hold on. Venezuela, which has lost the support of high oil prices, will encounter trouble for high welfare and subsidies in the future. Now, Venezuela is deeply troubled by inflation, shortages of consumer goods, and rising crime rates, which directly affect the Maduro regime. Oil prices have fallen into the quagmire of the global financial crisis. OPEC is very sad that Iran has suffered from international sanctions and currency decline on the one hand. On the other hand, lower oil prices have caused a sharp drop in revenue and lost 5% of GDP. While President Rouhani was gearing up for economic reconstruction, he was bound by the sharp drop in international oil prices. During the critical period of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, the support of high oil prices has been lost, and the confidence in the negotiations has probably been reduced by three points. However, this year, the extremist organization "Islamic State" attacked cities and lands in Syria and Iraq, but did not trigger crude oil price turmoil. Analysts believe investors are gradually realizing that none of this poses an urgent need for supply. On the other hand, the turmoil in crude oil prices is no longer only affected by geographical conflicts. This time, economic logic has defeated international political logic. US: Does shale oil change the international political landscape? In 1973, in order to crack down on Israel and the countries that support Israel, OPEC announced an oil embargo, causing oil prices to surge and reducing U.S. GDP growth by 4.7%, directly prompting it to change its foreign policy towards the Middle East. Since then, getting rid of its dependence on oil in the Middle East has become a major issue facing the United States. After years of exploration and development, U.S. shale oil can now finally get a share of the energy market and try to compete with Saudi Arabia. The United States, which was the world's largest oil importer until 2009, is expected to become the world's largest oil producer by 2020. Will new energy make North America the new Middle East? If this conjecture becomes a reality, the United States 'dependence and influence on the Middle East will decline, the United States' interest in preventing global warming will decline, and Europe's dependence on Russia for natural gas will also decline. As concerns about oil shortages diminish, the United States will also begin to explore new resource diplomacy. The New York Times article stated that as the United States 'dependence on energy in the Middle East decreases, Washington's willingness to take risks and responsibilities there will naturally decrease. At least in this era of fiscal constraints, this willingness appears to be even more unfounded. At the same time, Asia, with rapid economic development, will become a "battleground for military experts" between the United States and other oil-producing countries. Demand from East and South Asia may be an exciting new opportunity for OPEC, with nearly 90% of oil produced in the Middle East expected to be absorbed into Asia by 2035. To this end, the United States 'Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy also came into being. Former U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta said that by 2020, 60% of U.S. warships will be deployed in the Pacific. This means that the United States will increase its military deployment in the Asia-Pacific region. Once it grasps important straits in the future, oil transportation in Asia will face danger. All kinds of positive things have caused the American media to regard energy as a diplomatic "weapon" of Obama. The New York Times article even asserted that after the end of World War II, the reason of "resource shortage" has been one of the leading forces shaping global geopolitics and economy. Today, due to the technical knowledge and bold pioneering efforts of the U.S. oil and gas industry, the world has ushered in a new era.