«--[· Preface ·]--»
The border between Thailand and Cambodia is not peaceful. Why did the new Prime Minister of Thailand, who took office for only half a month, make a guarantee to China? What exactly does he think?
The Chinese Prime Minister of Thailand.
At the National Day reception of the Chinese Embassy in Bangkok, the new Thai Prime Minister Anutin, who had just taken office for half a month, blew up as soon as he opened his mouth. Holding the wine glass, he shouted "Long live China" in Chinese with a little accent but particularly sincere, and the camera shutter sound in the audience instantly connected.
This is not casual and polite. Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the new Prime Minister's China policy is hidden in this blessing. Anutin's family has a deep relationship with China. His grandfather, Chen Jingzhen, traveled across the ocean to Bangkok as early as the early 20th century. At first, he was just an ordinary construction worker. With hard work, he started from scratch, and finally created one of the best construction companies in Thailand, "Sino-Thai Project".
At home, the Guangzhou language has never been broken, and Anutin has grown up listening to the story of Guangzhou Gongf tea since his childhood, and even he himself has said more than once in public: "I am 100% of the Chinese descendants, rooted in Guangdong Taiwan."
This cultural mark engraved in the bone, quietly influenced his political judgment. In 2023, Chinese tourists just returned to Thailand, and was still as Public Health Minister Anutin, specifically ran to the airport to pick up, pulled tourists in Guangzhou language, and also hooked the old sense of happiness.
Now that he is in the position of Prime Minister, he has put "a Chinese and Thai family" at the top of the diplomatic list. You know, Thai Chinese only account for 14% of the total population, but they hold 70% of the country's economic lifeline. Anutin's move is not only a recognition of ancestors, but also a clever move to stabilize the domestic economic fundamentals.
“The Thai Economy”
On the day that Anutin took office, Thailand’s economic data were hard to see.GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025 was only 1.8%, the lowest in five years.The streets are all bad news: 40% of households in Thailand are screaming that day-to-day spending is not going to bear, and a large number of restaurants and shops on the streets of Bangkok are shut down.
This mess has to be blamed on the former Prime Minister Petontan. Last year's "recording door" not only pulled herself down, but also scared all foreign investors to run away, and the tourism revenue dropped by 30% directly. To make matters worse, Petontan's previous rejection of the proposal to legalize casinos has cut off the road that could have boosted the economy. As soon as Anutin came to power, he was in a hurry. He directly regarded "saving the economy" as the top priority, and the only one in the world that could help was China.
He quickly threw out the "New Thailand 4.0" plan, the core of which is to learn from China to build infrastructure. The second phase of the China-Thailand Railway project has been regarded as a "life-saving project". Once this line is opened, the cost of transporting Thai rice and rubber to China can be reduced by 40%. He is also busy pushing Thailand to join the upgraded version of RCEP, with the goal of rushing the trade volume between China and Thailand to 150 billion US dollars by 2030.
In terms of energy, China is more inseparable, 70% of Thailand's natural gas is imported from China, and Anutin signed an agreement within a few days of taking office, doubling the capacity of the China-Taiwan natural gas pipeline.
Last month, three provinces in the northeast of Thailand fell into darkness because of the border conflict in Cambodia, the power supply to Thailand was cut off, and the southern power grid of China was launched, 48 hours of backup lines, electricity was restored, and Anutin's support rate in the country rose directly by 5 percentage points.
“The border fire...”
On the 18th of September, the border troops of the two countries clashed again near the Temple of Bervey, where 28 Cambodians were wounded by the rubber bullets of the Thai police, and the situation seemed to be out of control.
China's way of shooting is quite clever. Deng Xijun, the special envoy for Asian affairs, flew to Bangkok overnight to talk behind closed doors with the Thai Deputy Minister of National Defense. Without saying too much truth, I directly took out real bargaining chips: I proposed to set up a tripartite infrastructure fund between China, Cambodia and Thailand, with an initial investment of 500 million US dollars, all of which will be used for livelihood projects on the border.
The “economy for peace” trick was very useful, and two days later, Hunson declared a unilateral ceasefire and released 23 Thai fishermen who were stuck.Hunson’s compromise was not in vain. He spoke at a press conference in Phnom Penh, saying China has benefited Cambodia in the distribution of Mekong River water resources.
At the ASEAN Summit, Anutin proposed to repair the Sino-Taiwan railway to Cambodia's Pobe, and wanted to link the interests of the two countries with the railway.
“The reaction of Huntington.”
Hun Sen is not the one who suffers. This "old Jianghu" who has been in Cambodia for 38 years has already laid out a counterattack. Petongtan's "recording door" can make a big fuss, and there is his shadow behind it. He quietly put out the recording, which stirred up Thai politics, and finally let Anutin get a bargain. But this is just an appetizer, and the real hard move is yet to come.
Cambodia first handed over Thai agricultural products, and added a 20% tariff to the Thai specialties of Granolens and Himalayas. The price of Thai fruit in the Phnom Penh market rose overnight, and the Thai fruit farmers had no place to cry. More seriously, Hunson directed the cutting off the cross-border Internet cable with Thailand, and the gambling servers in Sehanuk Harbour collapsed - to know that behind these casinos were mostly the money of the Thai owners.
Songkhla in southern Thailand was the first to be affected, and local businessmen protested at the government gate every day. Anutin was not used to it, and immediately announced the suspension of electricity exports to Cambodia.
«-[Anutin's Survival Technique]-»
Anutin's heart is like a mirror. Being friendly with China alone is not enough. He has to find a balance between big countries. He signed a military cooperation agreement with China, allowing Chinese warships to replenish at Laem Chabang Port; On the one hand, it couldn't withstand the pressure from the United States and agreed to conduct a "security review" of Huawei's 5G equipment. This method of not offending both sides is actually the survival instinct of medium-sized countries such as Thailand.
The United States, speaking with “democratic human rights”, threatens to abolish Thailand’s universal tariff treatment; while China, with the “Belt and Road” project, takes Thailand and wants to pull it into its own economic circle.
Anutin has no choice but to take the path of "depending on China for economy and the United States for security". When he went to New York to hold the United Nations General Assembly, he specifically told Biden that Thailand was willing to be a partner of the "Indo-Pacific Strategy". When he turned around and returned to Bangkok, he immediately signed a US $3 billion electric vehicle cooperation agreement with China.
“ ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ”
In this game, China's role is the most crucial. Neither directly interfere in the territorial dispute, but can use infrastructure and funds to stabilize the situation, and strike the interests of all parties together. Then see how Anutin and Hunson fell. If Anutin can stabilize the economy, China's policy can be hard; if Hunson is really pursuing Thailand, probably will lose the good side of China. This game on the river Mekong, in the end, must see who can get closer to China.