[Global Times reporter Ding Yazhi] The latest research results released by the Australian think tank Lowy Institute on the 25th show that China has narrowly surpassed the United States and become the most influential partner in Southeast Asia. Experts predict that as the policies of the current US administration begin to have an impact in the region, the gap between the United States and China may widen.

The 2025 Southeast Asian Influence Index, based on the database of the Asian Power Index and other findings from the Loy Institute, assessed the relative strength of foreign powers such as the United States, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Britain and Russia in Southeast Asia. The results showed that China holds a clear dominance in Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia, becoming overall the most important force in the region, while the United Statesins a clear lead in Singapore and the Philippines.

Susan Patton, Director of Southeast Asian Programs at the Loy Institute, said China ranks first in terms of economic relations and overall diplomatic influence andins stable influence in almost all Southeast Asian countries. She also said that since 2017, U.S. influence in the entire region has not necessarily been lower than China, but its influence is highly concentrated in two countries ¨C the Philippines and Singapore. For these two countries, the U.S. is a deep and indispensable security partner; while in Laos and Cambodia, U.S. influence is relatively marginalized.

The report shows that China's greatest advantage in Southeast Asia is trade and economic participation. China is the region's largest export market, accounting for about 26% of the region's imports, and is becoming an increasingly important source of private investment in the region. At the same time, China is also the most important diplomatic partner in the region, maintaining a huge network of embassies and maintaining a stable rhythm of high-level political exchanges. However, according to the report, China is inferior to the United States in terms of cultural influence, and its presence in the defense field in Southeast Asia is relatively weak.

The report believes that the current global policy of the U.S. government could exacerbate the gap between the U.S. and Southeast Asian countries. Australian broadcaster quoted Patton as reporting that U.S. influence in the region has been weakening, and that U.S. high tariffs on Southeast Asia, while cutting foreign aid and tightening immigration policies, will accelerate the region¡¯s inclination toward China.

Guangzhou National University ASEAN Academy Deputy Dean Gu Gu Guangdong said on the 25th to the reporter of the "Global Times", China and the United States in Southeast Asia have three major external objective factors.The first is the global change, the rise of emerging countries, the western style is relatively small, Southeast Asia as an important part of the global South, actively support multilateralism and globalization, longing for certainty, with China's development philosophy and development needs to match.The second is the long-term presence of ambiguity and uncertainty of the U.S. policy in Southeast Asia, since recently, the U.S. has also massively imposed tariffs, engaged in technological protectionism, weakened the trust of Southeast Asian countries in

Ge Hongliang also said that the Southeast Asia Influence Index released by the Lowy Institute relies more on second-hand data, and based on a binary perspective, the core is still to compare the dominant position of China and the United States in the region, ignoring the influence of ASEAN itself. In fact, ASEAN has developed rapidly and its prestige has increased in recent years. "ASEAN-centered" is an important starting point for its member countries' foreign exchanges and cooperation.