After the Chinese special envoy just mediated the border crisis, the situation was supposed to stabilize, but it deteriorated sharply in just three days. A simple "marching order", a sudden military conflict, immediately pushed the two neighboring countries to the brink of war. At this time, the muzzle was almost on the foreheads of both sides, and any step of concession might be regarded as weakness, and the situation instantly entered a deadlock of "no one can retreat".
What makes this seemingly diplomatic dispute rapidly escalate into an almost irreversible conflict? can China’s mediation really change the situation? and when the political positions of the two countries fall into a dead circle, who can push the “stop-key” for this imminent conflict?
With the successful completion of China’s special envoy Deng Xiaoping’s mediation mission at the Taycan border, there were signs of some easing of the situation. China’s proposed establishment of a non-military zone through the framework of Lanjing cooperation and the provision of satellite remote sensing technology assistance clearly gained superficial support from both sides. However, just three days later, the situation turned straight down. Early on September 20, the Taycan border broke out again in intense conflict, and the intensity was far beyond the usual. This time, not only the small-scale friction of the border, but also civilians and religious persons, the fire relentlessly spread to the most vulnerable groups.
The Thai government just ended the mediation on the Chinese side, issuing a 30-day "passenger order" paper, urging non-military personnel from Cambodia, including monks, civilians and volunteers, to evacuate the disputed areas.This move is undoubtedly pushing the situation to the edge of the cliff, the gunpowder of the two sides has almost topped on each other's head, and any side's compromise may be seen as weak and the situation becomes more and more complicated.
The roots of this conflict, which dates back to decades of historical complaints, have been plaguing Thailand and Cambodia over the territorial disputes between the Bervey Temple and its surrounding regions. Though the International Court ruled that the Bervey Temple belonged to Cambodia under international law in 1962, Thailand has always failed to accept this ruling. The Thai government insists that the borders established by the 1907 Treaty are the legitimate territorial boundaries, and stresses that the settlement of this historic legacy must be in Thailand’s national interest.
In recent years, with the turmoil of the domestic political situation in Thailand, the Thai military has once again consolidated the domestic regime by escalating the border conflict, especially the current military-backed Prime Minister Putin government. In this case, the Thai military action is not only a tool for defending territorial sovereignty, but also a tool for military political play.
At the same time, the Cambodian government has also had its undeniable internal and external pressures. The new Prime Minister Hong-Mane has urgently needed to consolidate his political position through a tough gesture. The compromise with Thailand means political failure, especially in the current situation, evacuation of the disputed areas will be seen as a signal of Cambodian retreat in the sovereign dispute. In order to maintain the legitimacy of the government, Cambodian not only did not withdraw, but instead strengthened the deployment of militias and volunteers, and even sent monks to reside in these disputed areas, putting out the gesture of "I don't go, see what you do."
China’s mediation in the crisis was honest, but very limited. In talks with Thailand’s Deputy Defence Minister and Cambodian leaders, Special Envoy Dengxi repeatedly reiterated China’s willingness to provide a platform for mediation for the two countries to promote a peaceful settlement of the dispute. However, as the mediation mission was completed, the situation did not ease as expected, but the conflict intensified in the short term as the disputes over the territory intensified.
It is worth noting that the game between the Thai military and the highest level of the government greatly limits the effect of Chinese mediation. Even though Thailand appears to be committed to supporting Chinese mediation, under military control, the actual situation has not improved substantially. As many observers have pointed out, military action has long gone beyond the mere territorial dispute, and it has become a tool for the military to maintain its political status and further expand its influence.
Cambodia is also facing domestic political pressure, and the Hunan government has just undergone elections and has an urgent need to win popular support through a tough diplomatic gesture.In the process, in the face of the military threat from Thailand, Cambodia will not easily compromise.The non-concession attitude of both sides has made China's mediation almost ineffective.
ASEAN, which is supposed to act as a peace mediator, has been particularly weak in this crisis. Although Malaysia, as the rotating presidency of ASEAN, proposed a ceasefire agreement, this agreement broke down with almost no substantive action. ASEAN's coordination mechanism appears weak in dealing with this large-scale border conflict. The statement of the ASEAN Secretary-General has also been delayed in responding, delaying the best opportunity to deal with emergencies.
In addition, the differences within ASEAN have greatly reduced the coordinating role of this regional organization. Thailand has been firm in the conflict with Cambodia, and has always held the position of "sovereignty first", while Cambodia has tried its best to maintain its political tough attitude. The different positions of ASEAN member countries have made this organization increasingly incompetent in effectively intervening in regional affairs.
As the situation worsened further, the intervention of the great powers began to add more variables to the conflict. The U.S.-Thailand military relationship has been very close, especially in the context of the current escalating strategic competition between the U.S. and China, the U.S. position appears to be increasingly inclined to support Thailand’s tough attitude. The recent U.S. arms sales to Thailand, including tactical communications equipment and light weapons, are actually in favor of the Thai government’s tough border policy. This military aid has undoubtedly strengthened Thailand’s confidence in taking military action and has made the situation even more confusing.
By providing modernized services to Cambodia with T-55 tanks, Russia not only gained military benefits from it, but also demonstrated to Western countries its influence in the Southeast Asian region. The background of this game of great powers has further increased the complexity of the conflict, and the conflict of powers has brought more uncertainty to the situation.
Regardless of how the international situation plays, the most tragic is always the innocent civilians. Trade in the border area of more than $5 billion a year is now almost stagnant, border markets are closed and merchants' livelihoods are severely affected. Border conflict has not only affected the economies of the two countries, especially Cambodia's agricultural exports have declined by 70% and Thailand's motorcycle accessories and diesel exports have also experienced a decline of more than 90%.
Even worse, with the escalation of the conflict, the scope of the situation has expanded to civilians. Innocent civilians and religious figures have become the biggest victims of the war. In the border area, more than 200 Cambodian citizens have clashed with the Thai anti-violence police, causing 28 people to be wounded, including three monks. The casualties of civilians have undoubtedly made the emotions of the people on both sides more intense and have also sharpened the moral discussion of the conflict.
The current situation has entered an extremely dangerous stage. The Thai government's 30-day "expulsion order" has pushed the relationship between the two countries to a new breakdown point, and the military mobilization behind this tough attitude has made the situation confusing. The two sides have not only made sufficient preparations in military strength, but also assumed a "must-fight" posture in diplomacy.
For China, how to regain control of the situation and promote peace has become a tough task. Although China has proposed concrete peace mediation proposals and has shown great sincerity in the process, in the face of the political calculations and military mobilization of the two countries, China's mediation remains relentless. Today, peace is no longer a difficult problem that can be solved only through diplomatic mediation, but requires the parties to put down political calculations in the short term, willing to sacrifice for stability and peace.
For both countries, political interests and the excessive drive of national emotions have made peace more and more inaccessible, however, the outbreak of war will bring unbearable costs to the common people.