(Global Times reporter in Japan 黄文)The editor says:As the polling day of the new presidential election of the Japanese ruling Liberal Democratic Party approaches on October 4th, five candidates are competing fiercely: sanae takaichi and Takayuki Kobayashi, former ministers of economic security, Koizumi Shinjiro, current minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, Hayashi Fangzheng, chief cabinet secretary, and Toshimitsu Motegi, former secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party. Under the ruling dilemma of "double minority" of the Liberal Democratic Party in the Senate and the House of Representatives, apart from achieving inner-party unity, whether the new president can reach cooperation with the opposition party has also become one of the important factors affecting his election results. When Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an editorial article, it said with worry: "Japan has entered the era of multi-party, and there are many political parties that cannot govern alone, and there is no mechanism for reaching consensus among political parties." This election comes at a time when Japan stands at "an important fork in the road whether * can be rebuilt".
Three “builders” influenced the outcome of five elections
When asked “who is best suited to be the new president of the self-government party,” the Japanese newspaper “朝日新聞” recently released the latest national poll data, which was followed by a 28% support rate, followed by a 24% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 24% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate, followed by a 28% backing rate.
However, according to the electoral rules, 295 members of the National People's Party voted 1 vote per person, local lawmakers, ordinary party members and "party friends" (i.e. registered supporters) voted 295, a total of 590 votes, and the majority of votes received was elected president. If no one exceeded half, the top two candidates entered the final vote, when the weight of the members of the National People's Party votes will be greatly increased.
The new president of the People's Party is likely to be the next Japanese prime minister. Since Abe announced his resignation as prime minister in August 2020, in five years, Japan has been "changing" three times, from the people's party菅义伟,岸田文雄 and石破茂 respectively elected. According to the "Global Times" in Japan special reporter observation, for the frequent change of prime minister, the mentality of the Japanese people is complicated. On the one hand, many people are anxious and reluctant about the political turmoil, believing that the frequent change leads to the lack of policy continuity, life improvement is far from long, a sense of political mistrust is also increased, "who comes to Taiwan" disappointment sounds frequently appear. On the other hand, some people are still holding the mindset of "
From the party member party friend local ticket level, the Japanese video streaming media platform Abema TV's program analysis said that because of the last election only a year, the party member structure has not changed much, the party ticket base of the high market has an advantage, but last year's support for the ballot may flow to the fountain or Lin Feng.
The program also took stock of the characteristics and possible challenges of the five candidates. Takaichi sanae has held important positions in the Liberal Democratic Party, but it may be necessary to downplay some "far-right" ideas, such as avoiding explicitly visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and shelving consumption tax reduction, which may cause disappointment among conservatives. Koizumi Shinjiro has the image of a "young reformer", but due to his lack of experience in "three services of the party" (referring to the three important positions of secretary general, general affairs president and government investigation president, which are second only to the party president), it may need to prove its policy stability. Kobayashi Takayuki focuses on issues such as economic policy, but its policy characteristics may need to be further strengthened. As representatives of the "moderate faction", Lin Fangzheng and Motegi Toshimitsu, two senior politicians with achievements, may be regarded as transitional candidates.
From the perspective of parliamentary votes, three former prime ministers, Taro Aso, Suga Yoshihide and Fumio Kishida, played key roles in this party presidential election, or became "kingmakers" who influenced the situation. Japan's Yahoo News said that no matter who is elected in the end, the political game of these three "kingmakers" will continue to affect the power structure of the Liberal Democratic Party.
The "Aso Faction" led by Taro Aso has 43 members of Congress, which is the only complete faction in the party, and its voting trend has a great influence. In last year's presidential election, Aso turned to Takaichi Sanae because he strongly opposed Shigeru Ishiba. According to the analysis, in this election, Aso will weigh the support objects between Takaichi and Koizumi, but prefers to continue the conservative line.
He played a key role in the process of his resignation. According to Japanese media reports, on September 6, he talked with Xiao Jinglong with Xiao Jinglong, saying directly, "We must avoid partisan divisions, resignation is a better choice", and was said to directly push Xiao Jinglong to make a decision to resign. Although Xiao Jinglong has no background, his support for the "菅 Group" still exists. As the key figure that helped Xiao Jinglong was elected last year, Xiao Jinglong this time clearly supported Xiao Jinglong, hoping to integrate some of the "Stone Jingling" votes into the camp of Xiao Jinglong.
As in last year’s presidential election, the “old shore” party unifiedly supported Sharapova in the final phase of the election, Sharapova is expected to fully support Sharapova. Though Sharapova’s support rate is in the middle, Sharapova’s backwriting may attract intermediate legislators seeking stability, making it a potential “black horse” in the final phase.
It is difficult for the Liberal Democratic Party to win the trust of the public only by changing the "cover"
It is worth noting that since the Liberal Democratic Party has become a minority ruling party in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, its new president may not be able to directly become the Japanese Prime Minister and must seek the support of the opposition party. Japan's "Daily News" said that the Senate election in July this year marked Japan's official entry into the "multi-party era". Japan's Hokkaido Shimbun also published an editorial saying that the acceleration of the multi-party process has pushed Japanese politics to a turning point. Japanese media generally believe that in the era of multi-party, opposition parties also need to take responsibility for the political operation of a few ruling parties, and the implementation of policies cannot be separated from the cooperation of all parties. For the new presidential candidate, whether he can reach cooperation with the opposition party has also become one of the important factors affecting his election results.
In the history of Japan, there has also been a multi-party era. Between 1945 and the beginning of the post-war period, the Socialist Party, the Liberal Party, the Democratic Party, etc. formed the main forces in the Japanese political pattern. In 1955, the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party merged to form the Self-Democratic Party, thanks to the steady political and economic growth of the political and economic values, andined the ruling position for 40 years, and the Japanese political arena presented the "one-party unique" pattern.
Until the 1993 House elections, the self-government party lost a majority of seats due to scandals such as Liquorot bribes, the Japanese New Party Joint Socialist Party, the Communist Party and other eight parties formed a joint cabinet. This was the first time since the founding of the self-government party in 1955, the emergence of the "eight party co-government" situation, marked a major shift in the Japanese political pattern. In 1994, the joint government disintegrated due to internal contradictions, and the self-government party regained power.
In the 21st century, the Japanese political world continued to experience turmoil and reorganization, and in 2003 the Democratic Party and the Communist Party formed a joint government, a model of cooperation that continues today. However, in 2009, the Democratic Party won the House elections and ended the long-term rule of the Democratic Party and realized the first true "regime rotation".
In 2012, Shinzo Abe led the Liberal Democratic Party to regain power, stayed in power for the next eight years, implemented "Abenomics" and re-consolidated the advantages of the Liberal Democratic Party. Since then, the opposition forces have continued to weaken. In 2016, the Democratic Party merged with the Reform Party into the "Japan Democratic Progressive Party", and then split and reorganized into the "Constitutional Democratic Party". The integration of opposition parties has been repeatedly frustrated.
In 2021, the self-democratic Shaytada Vanuatu took over as prime minister, facing the double challenge of the epidemic and economic recovery, whose ruling coalition, althoughining a stable majority in the elections, has raised widespread question of the ruling coalition's dependence on the bureaucratic-dominated model and policy delay as people's expectations for political transparency and policy innovation increase.
“Japanese political party politics has come from the ‘population of the first’ to the crossroads of multi-party.” The Japanese Eastern Economy Online website publishes. “Japanese Economic News” also commented: “Japanese political party politics, which has been opposed by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, has ultimately failed to build the ‘post-Abbé era’ architecture.” “Truly, as opposed to history, in the ‘post-Abbé era’ Japan, its social base and voter mentality have changed. Economic stagnation overlaps with aging, people’s actual income declines, and people question the ability of traditional political parties to govern, which provides the ground for the rise of emerging political parties. In the context of the devaluation of the yen, foreign tourists consume the pressure of Japanese people, leading
According to the Japan Economic News, the self-government party cannot regain the confidence of the people by simply replacing the president.The new president should clearly put forward the self-government party's revitalization strategy and national policy, and it is necessary to clarify the concept of the regime, that is, on the basis of self-government, fair cooperation between the two parties, and with which opposition parties they plan to cooperate and what policies they want to adopt.
The new prime minister will face a series of severe challenges
Looking to the future, Toyo Economic Online website analyzed that according to the current Japanese political structure, two development directions can be deduced: First, if the Liberal Democratic Party still can't get out of the predicament after the new presidential election, and the opposition party can't integrate resources, it will lead to further fragmentation of Congress, and policy promotion will face huge resistance; Secondly, although the possibility is low, if the Liberal Democratic Party reunites and unites the conservative forces under the leadership of the new president, and at the same time, the Constitutional Democratic Party and the National Democratic Party reach cooperation, it may reappear the historical pattern similar to the confrontation between the two camps of "Liberal Democratic Party VS Democratic Party", which makes it easier to quickly reach policy consensus, but it needs to break through the current barriers to the interests of various parties.
“The position of the new president is no different than ‘drinking poison.’” The BBC that the root of Japan’s frequent suspicion is the structure of Japan’s “one-party democracy.” At the governing level, essentially only the Democratic Party exists, which means that the main political competition does not occur between external political parties, but takes place within the party, and even if someone is elected president, others will soon begin to compete for power. The report said that when the outside world is concerned about who is the successor of Sharapova, many are watching closely whether the new prime minister can end the cycle of frequent changes in Japanese regime.
Although it is still unknown who will ultimately be in charge, the new Japanese prime minister will inevitably face a series of severe challenges after he takes office. The Japan Economic News that rice and other high-price, wage growth does not keep up with inflation, fiscal spending continues to increase, and interest rates are on the rise. In this case, how to ensure increased defence payments in accordance with U.S. demands is also an urgent issue. Long-term issues also include tackling minority aging, ensuring social security and fiscal sustainability, energy strategies supporting growth, increasing talent investments, building a "similar society" with foreigners, and reconstructing diplomatic strategies in the dramatic change of the international order.
Another phenomenon that worries the Japanese is the “short term” of the prime minister term mentioned earlier. After the second reign of the Abe regime seven years and eight months,菅义伟 served for about one year, Shaytada文雄 for about three years, and Shapropo Mou for less than one year. A Japanese reporter said, for example, that in the eight-year term of the former President of the United States Barack Obama had dealt with five Japanese prime ministers, when the name of the Japanese prime minister could not even be remembered accurately overseas, which made the Japanese reporter in Washington anxious. The reporter also said that today’s international situation does not allow the “Japanese prime minister walking light” style to change more than that year, and in the turmoil of international order triggered by Trump, Japan
Mu Yuan, a professor of politics and public policy at Tokyo University, believes that whether the next president of the Liberal Democratic Party can show the ability to stabilize national life is crucial, and heroes must not be judged only by popularity.