Why did Poland suddenly release the China-Europe train? In the early morning of September 25, that is, today, the Polish government will redevelop the border port with Belarus in accordance with the commitment of its Prime Minister Tusk, which means that China-Europe freight trains can resume operations. It took only two weeks from the announcement of the indefinite closure of the port on the 12th to the restart on the 25th, but the attitude of the Polish government can be described as capricious. First, the attitude is extremely hard, then the preliminary agreement to open up, then again outright to overturn the commitment to China, and finally low-headed.What happened in this short period of 14 days that made Poland jump so backwards? Some people say that Poland's closure of the China-Europe train port is instructed by the United States, but Lao Luo's view is just the opposite.
On September 12, Poland announced the closure of the border port of Belarus due to the massive Russian drone invasion of its airspace, and the decision of the two countries to hold exercises near the Polish border, announced the closure of the border port of Belarus, resulting in the blocking of Central European passages. As a country located on the main transportation route to the west of the mainland Europe, Poland can be said to be the throat of the Central European railway transportation line, Almost all the rail lines coming from the east must first gather here, then spread to different countries such as Germany, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, through these places not only economically developed, but also more for transportation convenient plains.If the Central European line did not pass from Poland, it would only go from the south, but from the south it would have to go through an average sea altitude of more than a kilometre and stretching continuously.The Carpathian Mountains and the Alps not only have high railway operating costs, but also long passage times.In other words, Poland is the best solution for almost the entire Central European railway transportation line.
As a transit point, the Central European line also brought huge economic dividends to Poland, and the sudden closure of the port itself is also a backbone to China.
Although the amount of goods transported in China and Europe only accounts for one-tenth of China and Europe's trade, the amount of goods containing gold is the largest. Many people only think that China and Europe's shipments are high value-added products such as mobile phones, luxury goods, cross-border e-commerce packages, while China and Europe's railway transportation costs only a third of the time, logistics costs are only one-fifth of the air transport.
But in addition to this, the Central European line is actually also transporting a production capacity.
The trade between China and Europe is no longer a simple matter of you buying and selling finished products, but a deeply intertwined industrial chain cooperation. Lao Luo gave an example, Mercedes’ automobile plants in Europe need to import a batch of key parts from China every week, and some high-end manufacturers in China also rely on importing precision tools or equipment from Europe.This collaborative model is very demanding for the conditions of logistics, it requires both to be transported quickly to ensure that the production line does not stop; it requires cost-controllable, not too expensive as air transport; it also requires sufficient stability, because precision instruments such as medical devices are quite demanding for the conditions of the transport environment and the sea if encountering a huge wave, it can.There can be situations where warehouse temperature is out of control, moisture and precision devices are damaged.
China-Europe train just solves all the above pain points: its transportation speed is much faster than sea transportation, and it can support this modern production rhythm that requires frequent and punctual replenishment. For example A European factory can arrange production plans based on line-stable timing and keep the stock of parts from China at a very low level, which greatly improves the efficiency of funding. In turn, European precision instruments and industrial mothers can also deliver rapidly to the factory in China. This has allowed China-European motors to go beyond simple transport routes and become a "life line" to guarantee the stability and efficiency of both countries' industrial supply chains.。 It allows Chinese and European enterprises to produce more closely together and complement each other's advantagesWithout this timely and cost-effective mode of transportation, many industrial collaboration projects that require close collaboration will become difficult, either increasing the huge cost of inventory or facing the risk of supply cuts in the production line.
Therefore, the importance of China-Europe trains lies not only in the output value of the goods it transports, but also in what goods it transports. It carries the key parts and machinery and equipment to maintain the smooth operation of the China-EU industrial chain. This deep-seated industrial connection is an indispensable link for the stability and upgrading of China-EU trade.
Although the production value of goods is not high in China and Europe, it is basically the intermediate parts that can be normally produced by the factory, among the top five transportation goods in China and Europe, in addition to mobile products such as mobile phones, the other four are important intermediates, such as automotive parts, photovoltaic components, mechanical accessories, electronic and electrical accessories.
It is precisely because of the importance of China-Europe freight trains that Poland feels that it has bargaining chips. They try to cut off the lifeline of this industry and threaten China to stop its so-called support for Russia and Russia. But Poland seems to have forgotten that the China-Europe train is not only the lifeblood of China's industry, but also the lifeblood of Europe's industry. Therefore, when Poland reneged on its word and continued to close its ports, the European Union was the first to worry about it. Germany's deputy prime minister, Habek, has outraged Poland's interest in selling allies, saying Warsaw's border decision was not negotiated with the EU, but now allows European companies to pay, which is not the union's approach.。 EU trade leaders also secretly accused Poland of engaging in unilateral actions at an emergency meeting in Brussels, which caused a series of chain reactions and resolutely opposed the security of trade issues. To put it bluntly, it is not allowed to use China-Europe trains as a tool of international games.
But the pressure from Europe is not yet to allow Poland to recognize, after joining the European Union for so many years, Poland has been the number one anti-skeleton, shattering Germany and France, the real turning point took place after the talks on the Central Wave. On the 15th, the officials of the Central Wave met in Warsaw and signed a joint security and smooth cooperation document on the Central European Canal, when the attitude of the Polish side was very positive, everyone thought that transportation would return to normal, but only two days later on the 17th, there was news that some logistics platform had suspended shipment through the Central European Canal to Europe.
The next day, September 18, China made a big news. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Transport jointly announced the launch of the normalized commercial trial operation of the Arctic waterway. Later that day, the Chinese-funded shipping company Haijie Shipping announced the opening of the China-Europe Arctic Express, and the first route will operate on the 20thAlthough the Arctic route can travel around Eastern European countries and is 22 days shorter than the traditional route, it is not the economic account of the Arctic route that has caused Poland to succumb, but the political account.
We all know that the Nordic countries and Russia have historical contradictions, Russia and Sweden have fought three hundred years before and after the Great Northern War, Finland and the Soviet Union have fought twice, and Norway has always stood on the front against Russia, and it is because of these historical wishes that the United States can bind the Nordic countries to their wagons with security.
Russia is undoubtedly the most important participant in the Arctic route, after all, it has the longest Arctic coastline and the world’s largest ice breaker fleet, and commercial vessels to sail over the Arctic Ocean need ice breakers to open their routes in front of them, so without Russia’s cooperation, the route will not be able to operate on a large scale. But the Arctic route coastal countries are more than Russia, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Sweden, those countries that are close to the Arctic Ocean or close to the Arctic Ocean, according to normal logic, will become the trade hub and key hub of this new route? Therefore, as long as the Arctic route is successfully developed, a huge community of interests will be formed around China-Europe trade, from Russia to Finland to Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and European countries along the Arctic Ocean.The more developed the Arctic route is, the more blood-earned countries such as Finland and Denmark, the deeper the merger of their respective interests with Russia.
This is absolutely unacceptable to the United States, After all, the Russian-Ukrainian war hit today, the greatest strategic harvest of the United States was to pull Finland and Sweden, the two long-standing neutral nations, into the NATO military group against Russia, in addition to this, the U.S. harvest is almost zero.If the relationship between Northern Europe and Russia is repaired because of the development of the Arctic route, and they become a community of interests, wouldn't the United States lose all its underpants?
Without a doubt, Poland closed the Central European ranks, suffered not only the anger of China and Europe, but also the anger from the United States, so it is not difficult to explain why the front-foot of Poland, suddenly again confused.