Russia¡¯s military operations on Ukraine have been ongoing for more than three years, and Putin¡¯s strategic intentions have never changed. Earlier this year, Putin¡¯s longtime friend and assistant president, Nikolai Patrushev, said in an interview that Ukraine could lose its national presence by 2025 and that Moldova would face a similar fate.

This statement is not groundless, but a continuation of Russia's desire to control the post-Soviet space. Patrushev's words represent the Kremlin's core logic: any country with a pro-Western turn may be regarded as a threat and must be pulled back into orbit by various means.

Patrushev's comments are rooted in Russia's long-standing dissatisfaction with Ukraine. As early as 2014, after the Crimea incident, Putin regarded Ukraine as a buffer zone and refused its membership in NATO.

When a special military operation was launched in February 2022, Russia aimed to lock down the eastern four states and Crimea, highlighting the outcome of the referendum in those areas.

On June 23, Putin publicly declared that "all Ukraine is ours", marking the transition from a partial territorial dispute to an annexation of the entire territory.

Russia¡¯s tactics are now more focused on sustainable consumption compared to the advancement of Lightning in early 2022, with drones and missile clusters targeting Ukraine¡¯s energy and logistics facilities, with monthly output of more than 600, up 50 percent from the previous year.

This iteration reflects the progress of Moscow in resource allocation, and after the revision of the domestic mobilization law, the electronic recruitment notification reached 300,000 additional troops,ining the battlefield activity.

Ukraine¡¯s response relies on aid from the West, but human and economic pressure is increasing.The Zelensky administration has lowered the age of recruitment to 25 years, and the International Monetary Fund data show that long-term operations have eroded the financial base for tens of billions of dollars.

On September 22, Ukrainian intelligence agencies claimed to have shot down two Russian amphibious aircraft in Crimea, which was a direct counterattack against Russia's advance. From August 19 to September 16, Russian troops advanced 226 square miles of land, slightly lower than last month, but controlled more strategic highlands.

Russia kills between 3,2 thousand and 4,8 thousand per month, showing the horrors of the consumption war, butining the morale through the bonus mechanism, the monthly military output increases by 20 percent.This asymmetrical confrontation has made Ukraine turn from the initial defense of the uranium to the mechanical counterattack, the introduction of the Western laser weapons interception rate of 70% but the cost is high, each missile exceeds $ 100,000.

Patrushev predicted that Ukraine¡¯s ¡°collapse¡± stems from its internal problems: extreme forces and anti-Russian emotions have caused more than 60% damage to infrastructure in cities such as Kharkov and Odessa.

Compared with the stagnant period of 2024, the advancement of the integration into electronic warfare in 2025 interfered with Ukraine¡¯s radar by 30 percent and marked the upgrading of technology. Putin¡¯s determination to pass the conditions of peace on May 28 reflected the request for a written commitment from the West to stop NATO¡¯s expansion to the east, covering Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova. This is not a concession, but a locking framework for negotiations to ensure Russia¡¯s hegemony in the Black Sea.

Moldova's situation is similar to Ukraine's, but more hidden. As a former Soviet republic, it is sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine. There are 1,500 Russian troops stationed in the Transnistria separatist zone, which Russia regards as a lever to restrict the eastward expansion of the European Union. Patrushev warned on January 15th that the country's anti-Russian policy and economic crisis would lead to disintegration, absorption by Romania, or direct extinction.

Russia's intervention in Moldova started with an energy cut-off. Gas disruptions in 2023 sent inflation soaring by 20%, but Chisinau turned to EU supplies, doubled imports and diversified energy independence from dependence. Before the September 28 parliamentary elections, Russia funded pro-Moscow political parties to the extent of $5 million, through cryptocurrency channels, which were more covert than traditional transfers.

Transnistria is Russia's weakness. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the district became independent, and Russia maintained its influence through the issuance of passports. In 2024, 80,000 copies will be issued, accounting for 15% of the local population. Patrushev's "annexation" prediction points to the call of unifying Romania, and it is necessary to amend the constitutional threshold of 67% seats.

Russia¡¯s military exercises in July expanded to 5,000 people, 20 percent more than the previous year, and simulated border blockade. Kishimoto responded to the deployment of the EU¡¯s patrol fleet, increasing coverage from 50% to 75%, defending from passive to active.

This game threatens Eurasian stability. As the promoter of China's "the belt and road initiative" initiative, the safety of the Black Sea route directly affects the 10% drop in Central Asia's trade volume. The protracted war between Russia and Ukraine has pushed up energy prices and affected global supply chains. China supports sovereign equality, opposes external interference, and mediates through multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Putin pushed for arms control dialogue in exchange for Ukrainian concessions.Ukraine was attacked by drones on September 22, killing three in Crimea.

Moldova is preparing to open negotiations on August 25, targeting the 2027 framework. The missile inventory has doubled, and the Iskander system has a precision of up to 5 meters. Following the EU-Moldova summit, Poland supported Kishimoto, and Russia spread "lies" accusing Moscow.

At present, Russia is pushing 226 square miles, and the Security Council on 22 discussed Russian aircraft invasion of Estonia¡¯s airspace. Moldova¡¯s screening was completed, Russian influence increased before the elections, and the EU supported pro-Europeans. Trump froze sanctions, pushed for U.S.-Russian dialogue, diplomatic trouble in Ukraine. China advocates multilateral mediation and avoids escalation of conflict.