On September 22 local time, the Argentine government suddenly announced the suspension of the pre-debit tax on exports of agricultural products such as soybeans, and Chinese buyers first handed out and ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans.

This number means that China¡¯s purchases in two days have already surpassed the monthly record set by Argentina in 2015.The outside world sees China¡¯s rapid action, but the real meaning behind it is that China decided to bypass the U.S. market at a critical moment and directly incorporate South America¡¯s supply chain into its layout.

In the past two decades, U.S. soybean exports to China have grown from the initial billions of dollars, to $13 billion, and China has almost become the "life line" of U.S. soybean farming.In normal circumstances, every September, a new round of U.S. soybean sales season begins, China will settle the first orders within two weeks, but this year is the first zero purchase since 1999.

In other words, at present, American soybeans have been piled up in warehouses in the Midwest, while Chinese orders are flowing to Argentina. This timing is particularly delicate, because U.S. soybeans are in the harvest season. Without China's payment, the entire industrial chain, from farmers to truck drivers, from railways to ports, from warehousing to insurance, will be in trouble. The American media even described this as an "economic crisis sweeping across the countryside".

Ironically, Trump is the very man who dragged American farmers into the hot spot. After provoking the trade war in 2018, China began to reduce its soybean purchases from the United States on a large scale, turning to Brazil and Argentina. In 2024, China's soybean imports from Brazil will account for more than 70%, while the share of the United States will drop from one-third seven years ago to only one-fifth.

Today, China's actions further prove that the marginalization of American soybeans in trade with China is solidifying, and once the supply chain is completely reorganized, it will be extremely difficult for the United States to regain market share. American farmers themselves see it clearly. In an open letter to the Trump administration, they bluntly stated that once the export market is lost, it is impossible to recover in a short time.

This pressure is turning to political discontent. Middle West farmers are key to Trump¡¯s victory, but their situation is unusually tough. Soybean prices have dropped by about 40 percent from 2022 highs, and corn has dropped by more than half, while the cost of seeds, fertilizers and farming machines is still high.

Farmers are not without harvest, but lack of sales, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture has even warned that a record farm bankruptcy could occur this year. President of the U.S. Soybean Association, Lagrange, has repeatedly appealed in public: ¡°We need the Chinese market, our livelihoods cannot be separated from it.¡±

China's attitude is clear. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Commerce in the recent press conference emphasized that the trade war, the tariff war is not in the interests of any party, the problem is in the United States unilateralism. If the United States does not cancel unreasonable tariffs, China has no reason to buy in the US soybean procurement. More importantly, China has demonstrated its full ability to ensure domestic supply without the United States soybeans, Brazil and Argentina have formed a new supply pattern, China's supply chain has also shifted from reliance on the single market, to the global decentralized layout, which greatly improves risk resistance.

For Trump, this is the dilemma. On the one hand, he needs to rely on farmers' ticket warehouses to support it; on the other hand, he wants to suppress China through tariffs and trade wars, but China has taken the initiative through market adjustment. American farmers have done everything they can, but they can't change the rules of the market, and the key to the market lies in China. China's order for two consecutive days is not only a real purchase, but also a clear signal that without the United States, China can still buy and use it with peace of mind.

Next, Trump needs to pick up, not only the economic account, but also the political account. The anger of the American farmers will turn into pressure on the ballot, and the protests of the agricultural lobbying groups will lead to the mountain of Congress. In the future, if Trump does not change the strategy against China, he faces not only the soybeans accumulated in the warehouses, but also a gradually lost market and a shake of stockpiles.