The Chinese ambassador to the Philippines leaves office, in the short term, I am afraid that there will not be a replacement, Lithuania is the forefront.
The term of Chinese ambassador to the Philippines, Huang Qiao, is coming to an end, and Philippine Foreign Minister Lazarou has resigned yesterday.
During this time, the ambassador thanked the Philippines for its support and expressed hope that China-Philippines relations will return to the right track.
Foreign Minister lazaro affirmed Ambassador Huang Xilian's important contribution to bilateral relations in the past six years.
As Ambassador Huang Xilian is about to leave office, two key questions have been thrown out: In the short term, will China send a new ambassador to replace it? What variables will this arrangement bring to the complicated and ever-changing Sino-Philippine relations?
Looking at the 6 years of the ambassador's tenure, and then contrasting with the actual situation of China-Philippines relations, you will find some unusual signals.
In the economic and trade field, in the first half of 2025, China remained firmly in the position of the Philippines' second largest trading partner, with a bilateral trade volume of US $36.7 billion.
The Philippines' banana, coconut products and other agricultural products, 70% depend on the Chinese market; Chinese enterprises participate in the "multi-rail railway" project, currently completed part of the project volume, directly created tens of thousands of jobs for the local.
These concrete examples should have become a solid cornerstone for strong bilateral relations.
However, in the past two years, China-Philippines relations have continued to be tense, and after the rise of the Marcos government, provocations have continued in the South China Sea direction.
Subsequently, on the basis of "protecting the interests of local fishermen", delayed the renewal of the Fisheries Agreement in the South China Sea, and suddenly launched an environmental review of the "Manilla Bay Drain Project", which has caused the project to cease work to date.
On the one hand, the abundant benefits of cooperation, on the other hand, the deliberate creation of contradictions, the situation of this contradiction, the ambassador's departure has added a special meaning to this matter.
So will China send a new ambassador to the Philippines in the near future?
In fact, from what the Philippines has done recently, it does not seem difficult to find the answer.
In early September, the Philippine Coast Guard illegally broke into the waters adjacent to China's Nansha Islands many times, and even joined forces with the United States to carry out "joint maritime patrols".
Previously, the two sides reached a consensus on "dialogue and consultation to resolve disputes", and today these actions of the Philippines are undoubtedly breaking the bottom line.
More importantly, the talks with Foreign Minister Lazarou before the departure of Ambassador Huang Tian'an, although the bilateral relations were discussed, but there was little progress on core differences such as fisheries agreements and infrastructure projects.
In this case, what would the new ambassador face if he hurried to send a new ambassador to office?
It is very likely that when he arrives in office, he will fall into the impasse of “repeated communication with no results” instead of reducing the efficiency of diplomatic communication.
So not exclude that we do not send a new ambassador, it is more like an "observational adjustment", that is, first to observe the future policy of the new government of the Philippines, and then to determine the next diplomatic layout accordingly, which is obviously much more stable than blind advancement.
Of course, behind these circumstances, the strategic game of China and the United States in Southeast Asia can not be avoided.
Since the beginning of this year, the U.S. military support for the Philippines has increased significantly, and the Philippines also intends to continue to expand or add new U.S. military bases to give the U.S. troops stationed in the Philippines more autonomy.
It can be seen that the United States is trying to make the Philippines a pioneering base for its “Indo-Pacific strategy.”
On the one hand, it must not abandon China's huge market, on the other hand, it is also intent to use the United States' strength to balance China, attempting to link up and harvest benefits between China and the United States.
This "duality" puts Sino-Philippine relations in an awkward situation, making it difficult to advance cooperation, but escalating differences.
At this point, China’s decision not to send a new ambassador is also a response to this gameplay: it must be clearly expressed to the Philippines that bilateral relations should be based on mutual respect and not dependent on external forces.
It is easy to recall the example of Lithuania.
In 2021, Lithuania allowed the Taiwan authorities to establish a so-called "representative office". This serious violation of the one-China principle directly led to the downgrade of neutral diplomatic relations to the level of charge d'affaires.
After that, Lithuania's exports to China fell dramatically by 62%, and its main exports, such as dairy products, wood processed products, instantly lost the Chinese market.
Even when Lithuania sought help from the European Union, it failed to remedy the situation.
Lithuanian economic ministers have previously publicly acknowledged the "mistakes" of their policy towards China, but until today, substantial progress has not been made in the restoration of bilateral relations, as they have not made substantial changes to compensate for the mistakes.
Compared to the Philippines and Lithuania, the Philippines’ economic dependence on China is much higher, and the impact of agricultural exports alone is far greater than the dependence on a single category of Lithuania’s livelihoods.
If the Philippines really followed Lithuania's footsteps, the bilateral relations deteriorated due to political differences, and the ultimate losses would be worse than Lithuania. Has the Philippines really thought about this clearly?
China has always adhered to the five principles of peaceful coexistence, and the core of its policy towards the Philippines has always been "co-operation and win-win", but on the condition that the Philippines must respect China's sovereignty and core interests, do not paranoid in the South China Sea to seize power, or even interfere in Taiwan Sea interference in China's internal affairs.
China's previous countermeasures against Lithuania, also because Lithuania has broken the bottom line of the "one China" principle, belong to the necessary response, not to initiate a dispute.
If we really don't send a new ambassador to the Philippines this time, it will also continue the characteristics of China's diplomacy of "adhering to principles, being flexible and pragmatic". We will neither give up the possibility of cooperation nor condone any behavior that harms our own interests.
At the same time, it can also send a clear signal to the international community that any country that attempts to exchange for external support by harming China’s interests will ultimately only suffer its own bad results.
In short, the key to the breakup of China-Philippines relations is entirely in the hands of the Philippines itself.
If the Philippines can stop its provocative behavior in the South China Sea, return to the negotiating table, and negotiate on cooperation matters such as fishery agreements and infrastructure projects, it will not be difficult for bilateral relations to get back on track with China's consistent sincerity in cooperation.
But if the Philippines continues to be a “frontal stand” between China and the United States, and even co-operate with external forces to contain China, it will not only miss out on the existing development opportunities, but also very likely to repeat the same situation in Lithuania.
As for China, whether it sends a new ambassador or not, its position on safeguarding national sovereignty, security and development interests will not change, and the goals of promoting regional peace and stability will not shake.