China Daily Online, September 25th According to comprehensive foreign media reports, the latest research shows that the tariff policy of the Trump administration in the United States is becoming a key factor driving the price increase in the United States, and may drag down the economic growth in the next few years. In addition, a number of surveys pointed out that U.S. companies are passing on the additional costs brought by tariffs to consumers, and their full impact on the economy has not yet been fully revealed.

Tariffs become inflation 'key driver' affecting the threat of lasting for years

The CFO Survey, released jointly by Duke University and the Federal Reserve and the Atlanta Federal Reserve, revealed that chief financial officers estimated that roughly one-third of the price increases in the company this year could be attributed to tariffs.The analysis suggested that without these historic high tariffs, U.S. inflation rate this year could fall from the current 2.9% to the 2% target set by the Federal Reserve.

Reported by CNN

What is more noteworthy is that the impact of tariffs is not a short-term phenomenon. The survey predicts that tariffs will still account for about a quarter of the factors that increase corporate prices by 2026. John Graham, a professor of finance at Duke University's Fuqua School of Business, pointed out: "This is not a one-time shock, it will be a protracted event, and its impact may extend until 2027."

Corporate cost pressure increases, consumers become the ultimate payers

The survey showed that U.S. companies expect average cost increases of 4.4 percent this year, with 1.7 percentage points driven by tariffs. In response to cost pressure, many U.S. companies plan to transfer most of the new cost to consumers.

In addition, tariffs and trade policy have been the top concerns of CFOs for the third consecutive quarter. Executives who list tariffs as their primary risk are "significantly more pessimistic" about the economic and business prospects.

Reporting screenshots

For the price increase, the real data of the U.S. consumer market has reflected: influenced by the 50% tariff imposed on Brazil, the price of coffee rose 4% between July and August, making the largest monthly increase in 14 years; after the 17% tariff imposed on Mexican tomatoes, the price of U.S. tomatoes rose 4% in August.

International Organizations: US Long-Term Loss or Trillions of Dollars

The U.S. Reason news website, citing the OECD¡¯s half-year mid-term economic outlook, predicts that U.S. economic growth will decline by one percentage point in 2024.

The Rationality News website

The report noted that many companies had previously buffered tariff shocks by compressing profits and consuming inventories, but that capacity is gradually exhausting. As buffer space narrows, the U.S. may face the risk of stagnation of slowing growth, weak labour markets and a recurring inflation. Tariffs are expected to raise average inflation rate to 3% in 2026.

In addition, the actual economic impact has begun to emerge. A Dallas Fed survey in August showed that 60% of retailers and 70% of manufacturers in Texas said tariffs had a negative impact on their businesses. The New York Times reported that "John Deere lost about $300 million to steel and aluminum tariffs and is expected to lose nearly another $300 million by the end of the year."

Although a White House spokesman stressed in a statement that the Trump administration's policies such as tax cuts, energy abundance and deregulation are "cutting costs and raising income" to benefit families and businesses, the evidence shows that tariff policies are having lasting economic impact. According to the analysis of business news website Quartz, with the gradual exhaustion of corporate inventory buffers, the reduction of immigration and labor reduction, the United States may fall into stagflation, and even strong investment in artificial intelligence and other fields will be difficult to completely offset its adverse effects.