Kim Jong-un declared the peninsula "never unified", nuclear support as the strategic bottom line, Li is in a deadline in China's policy, and DPRK-Korea relations are heading toward?
On September 21, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un announced at the Supreme People's Conference that North Korea would clearly stipulate by law that North Korea and South Korea are two independent countries and would never merge into one country. This statement not only completely destroyed the illusion of peaceful reunification on the Korean Peninsula, but also put South Korean President Lee in a deadly situation. The reunification of the Korean Peninsula, once hoped for, now seems to have become an unattainable dream. So why did Kim Jong-un choose to abandon reunification?
The division of the Korean Peninsula began in the Cold War pattern after the end of the Second World War. In 1948, North Korea and South Korea established their respective regimes and became a front-line position in the US-Soviet confrontation. Unity was a common slogan for both sides, but there were always huge differences in how it was achieved. South Korea advocated “absorbing unity” and hoped that North Korea would join West Germany like East Germany and fully accept South Korea’s political, economic and social system. This scheme, although widely supported in South Korea, was an aggressive proposal in the view of North Korea. North Korea proposed a “one country, two systems” federal scheme, emphasizing high autonomy, but South Korea was always opposed to it. This fundamental contradiction made it difficult for both sides to reach a consensus
Military power and nuclear weapons have become the core code for North Korea’s rejection of unification. South Korea is demanding “stage-by-stage denuclearization” and is trying to unification by weakening North Korea’s military advantage. But Kim Jong-un is aware that once denuclearized, North Korea will lose its capital in peer-to-peer negotiations with South Korea and could eventually become the object of annexation.
External factors also profoundly affect inter-Korean relations. South Korea is an independent country in name, but its actual policy is deeply interfered by the United States. The Korea-US Defense Treaty not only stipulates the stationing of US troops in South Korea, but also gives the United States the right to decide on military operations in South Korea. This "semi-independent" state makes it difficult for South Korea to get rid of the control of the United States in its policy toward the DPRK. As the bridgehead behind South Korea, the United States has always been reluctant to see the reunification of the peninsula, because reunification will weaken its strategic presence in Asia and may even lead to the withdrawal of US troops from the peninsula. Kim Jong-un obviously saw through this and completely ignored South Korea's goodwill policy.
After his appointment, Lee tried to ease the tension with a good demonstration. He stopped "crying against the DPRK", reduced border military activities, and even enabled "pro-Korean" officials to try to resume the DPRK dialogue. However, in the context of North Korea's nuclear overthrow, these measures seemed to be more like a "passion" rather than a real peace effort. After Kim Jong-un wrote "abandon unity" into the law, North Korean relations entered a new normal state of hostility. This measure not only completely disrupted the possibility of peaceful reunification, but also buried the hidden hazards for future military conflicts. North Korea can rightly see South Korea as a "enemy country", and completely let go of its hands on the psychological and legal levels.
The future of North Korean relations is full of uncertainty, but one thing can be assured: as long as the intervention of external forces continues, the situation on the peninsula will be difficult to real easing.