Russia’s actions against Ukraine began at the end of 2021, when troops had already gathered near the border, not small in size, more than 100,000 soldiers. Russia then publicly demanded from the West, including banning Ukraine from joining NATO and ensuring Ukraine’s neutrality. These demands were not temporary, but based on the accumulated contradictions of previous years, especially after the Crimean events in 2014, Russia had always felt that the West was expanding too much in Eastern Europe. Putin repeatedly stressed that Ukraine’s pro-West side turned to threatening Russia’s security buffer zone, but these words sounded more like negotiating the actual code, and the actions showed greater discretion.
In February 2022, Russia officially launched a special military operation, with troops advancing from multiple directions, aiming directly to Kiev and the eastern region. Official claims were to de-militarize and de-nazism, protect the Russian-speaking population of Donetsk and Lugansk, but soon the goal changed, first to liberate these areas and then to control more territory. Russian troops advanced to the outskirts of Kiev, trying to quickly take over the capital, but faced with resistance adjustment strategy, turning to the eastern Donbas region, where resources are rich, coal mining and industrial bases are of great importance to the Russian economy. The whole process is not a mere territorial struggle, Russia at the same time strengthens the naval presence in the Black Sea, controls key navigation routes, ensuring energy exports are
You see, the layout of 2021, in fact, early in the calculation of these. Russia has since pressured NATO through diplomatic channels, and in December officially submitted documents demanding to amend NATO’s eastern expansion policy, but also to withdraw the deployment of troops in Eastern Europe. It was not air talks, while the forces gathered, Russia also carried out large-scale exercises, simulating the offensive scene on Ukraine, testing logistics and command chains. Western intelligence agencies at the time captured these movements, but reacted slowly, thinking that it was just deterrence. The result, after the invasion, Russia quickly took part of the region of Helsinki and Zaporizhia, these places close to the Black Sea, strategic location is excellent, can directly affect Ukraine’s food exports and Russian
By the second half of 2022, the front stabilized, and Russia controlled about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, mainly concentrated in the east and south. But at this time, Putin’s calculation began to come to light. Russia did not rush to advance fully, but began to strengthen cooperation with its global allies, China, Iran and North Korea. Iran provided drones, and North Korea supplied cannons, which helped Russia to extend its supply lines and continue to consume on the battlefield. Putin repeatedly mentioned the international order in his speech at the United Nations, saying that the West ignored Russia’s interests, which is not a complaint, but a way for subsequent diplomacy.
In 2023, the battle went into the shaft, and Russia deployed heavy troops in Bachmouth and Afdiffka to advance slow but stable battles. Western aid to Ukraine continued to source weapons, but Russia countered by energy exports, and natural gas prices soared, so that the European economy was tightened. Russia's strategy was not only to fight, but also to use the conflict to divert Western attention. For example, in 2023, Russia and China signed an energy agreement to circumvent Western sanctions, oil and natural gas went directly to the Asian market. This arrangement began in 2021, when Russia strengthened trade with India, and India became Russia's largest buyer of oil, accounting for 35% of exports.
Turning to 2024, the Russian army continues to encroach on the east, capturing more than 4,000 square kilometers of territory, with the focus on the remaining part of Donetsk. After Putin amended the constitution to extend his term of office, he pushed the global agenda bolder. At the Munich Security Conference, he criticized U.S. unilateralism and emphasized a multipolar world, which echoed actions on the battlefield in Ukraine. Russia's casualty number is high, and it is estimated that it may exceed one million by the summer of 2025. However, Putin did not flinch. Instead, he used nuclear deterrence to raise the threshold and repeatedly hinted at possible escalation, with the aim of preventing the West from fully intervening. At the same time, Russia has expanded its influence in Africa and Latin America, providing security in exchange for resources through the mercenary model of the Wagner Group. This has been launched in 2021 and accelerated after the conflict broke out.
In the first half of 2025, Russian offensive assessments showed that they countered on energy infrastructure, and the long-range strike in Ukraine affected Russian oil production, but Russia buffed through allies. Putin's negotiating position changed, no longer for unconditional ceasefire, but for side talks, with the aim of locking territory control. Russia's military exercises Zapad-2025 were conducted in Belarus, using local infrastructure to test the movement towards Europe, which connected with the Ukrainian front, showing a larger scope of planning. On the battlefield, Russian casualties were heavy but sustained pressure through mobilization and external assistance, Ukraine's defence line was stretched and resources were consumed faster.
Throughout the entire process, the conflict in Ukraine is only superficial. Russia's real intention from 2021 is to reshape the international landscape. Putin believes that taking Kiev can start the process of dismantling the Western-led order. Russia's global status has changed, its influence in the global South has increased, and it challenges the hegemony of the US dollar through alliances with revisionist countries. For example, Russia promotes de-dollarization and uses local currency settlement under the BRICS framework. This has been discussed since the 2021 summit and will be implemented after the conflict. Western sanctions were intended to isolate Russia, but as a result, it turned more eastward. Energy exports turned to India and China, and revenue did not collapse.