According to a number of Middle Eastern media reports, Assad, who was in exile in Russia, was suspected of poisoning and rushed to a hospital on the outskirts of Moscow for emergency treatment. At present, his life is in critical condition.

However, the Russian government has remained silent on this, neither confirming nor denying it.

Was it an accident or a well-planned political game?The truth and the motives behind this incident have sparked widespread speculation.

It has been almost a year since the regime was overthrown by the Sham Liberation Organization (HTS) at the end of 2024, when Assad and his family fled to Russia by military plane. It is that the Assad family lived under the strict protection of the Russian side, but the outside world generally believes that this ¡°protection¡± is more like house arrest.

During his exile, Assad almost completely disappeared from public view, neither showing up nor making any statements.

Now, sudden reports of poisoning make his situation even more confusing.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights first disclosed the news, but did not provide concrete evidence, and the Russian government remained silent about it.

The opacity of this kind of information makes the outside world's speculation about the truth of the incident constantly ferment.

If the poisoning is true, who is behind it? Is Russia's internal forces "killing donkeys" or is the new Syrian regime "killing people with a knife"? Or is a party deliberately spreading false news to provoke discord between Russia and Syria? There are no clear answers to these questions.

Assad's fate is closely related to Russia-Syria relations.

Over the past decade, Russia has been the most important ally of the Assad regime, providing military and economic support in the Syrian civil war, and consolidating its strategic presence in the Middle East through the Tartus naval base and the Herminam air base.

However, with the fall of the Assad regime and the rise of the new Syrian leader Julian, Russian-Syrian relations saw subtle changes.

Julani's regime initially took a tough attitude towards Russia, demanding that Russia make huge compensation for the "invasion of Syria", forgive Syria's foreign debt, and repatriate the Assad family for trial.

However, as the new Syrian regime¡¯s relations with the West gradually fade, and Israel¡¯s frequent airstrikes on Syria, the Julian administration began to re-evaluate its relations with Russia.

At this sensitive moment, Assad¡¯s presence is undoubtedly a tough issue.

Despite his exile, his political sensitivity remains. There are many separatist forces in Syria, including Assad's old ministries. If Assad is free in Russia, it is entirely possible to re-recruit and ignite a new round of civil war.

As a result, the Julian regime could see Assad¡¯s departure as an important key for negotiations with Russia, while Russia needs to find a balance between protecting Assad and improving relations with Russia and Syria.

From the day Assad went into exile, his fate was no longer in his own hands.

As a "historical figure", his existence is not only a sensitive point in Russia-Syria relations, but also a potential banner of separatist forces in Syria.

At the same time, the international community is paying close attention to this incident.

Israel's frequent air strikes against Syria put great pressure on the new Syrian regime, while the attitude of western countries towards the new Syrian regime tends to be cold and fails to provide sufficient support.

In this context, Russia's role is particularly important.

Assad¡¯s departure is probably one of the most difficult issues in Russian-Syrian relations.