The Japanese Prime Minister's election has entered the final countdown, and the policy propositions of two popular candidates, Takaichi Sanae and Koizumi Shinjiro, have attracted much attention.
This election is not only related to Japan's domestic political situation, but also likely to have a far-reaching impact on the future direction of Sino-Japanese relations.
At the same time, the possibility of a military conflict between China and Japan and its consequences have also become the focus of international public opinion discussions.
So, who will be the new Prime Minister of Japan?
How will the relationship change in the Middle East?
If the two countries go to war, is there really only one ending?
First of all, let's look at the attitudes of the two candidates towards China.
A politician known for being hard-hearted, she argues that Japan needs to have counter-attack capabilities and strengthen investment censorship mechanisms at the economic level.
Her policy toward China may present two characteristics:
First, the military cooperation between the United States and Japan will be further escalated.
It could push for more US-Japanese joint military exercises, strengthen Japan’s military strength, and use U.S. support to play the role of “anti-China vanguard” in the Asia-Pacific region.
For example, during the recent US-Japanese joint military exercises, the United States has deployed the "Thyfon" missile-guided system in Japan, which not only consolidated the first island chain, but also enhanced Japan's capability to strike against mainland China.
Second, China’s economic cooperation will face challenges.
Goldman Sachs mentioned strengthening investment review mechanisms, which may mean increased restrictions on Chinese investment.
Her economic policy may be consistent with the U.S. strategy of blocking trade with China, which will have a negative impact on China-Japan economic relations.
In contrast, Koizumi Shinjiro's attitude towards China is relatively moderate.
He advocated mitigating differences between the two countries through cooperation and communication, especially in the area of economic and trade.
But it is worth noting that there are also anti-Chinese tendencies, for example, when he went to the Yasukah Temple, a temple dedicated to class A war criminals, which undoubtedly exacerbated the historical conflict between the two countries.
Therefore, no matter who is elected, Japan’s policy towards China will still be deeply influenced by the United States.
In recent years, the frequency and scale of military cooperation between the United States and Japan has increased.
According to statistics, in 2023, the number of US-Japanese joint military exercises reached a new record high, focusing on the East and South China Sea regions.
The question of the fishing island has become the main source of military confrontation between China and Japan.
In the future, Japan may follow the example of the Philippines and send more ships into the waters of Diaoyu Island, trying to win greater support from the United States through provocative actions.
This behavior not only increases the risk of strategic misjudgment on both sides, but also creates a hidden danger to the security situation in the Asia-Pacific region.
In economic terms, China-Japan relations have always been an important part of the interaction between the two countries.
The data show that the bilateral trade volume of China and Japan reached $303.3 billion in 2024, and China is one of Japan’s largest trading partners.
However, if the new Japanese prime minister comes to power and co-operates with the U.S. economic blockade against China, China-Japan economic cooperation will face serious challenges.
Especially in the context of high-market early-size advocacy to strengthen investment scrutiny, Japan may restrict investment in Chinese enterprises, directly affecting economic mutual trust between the two countries.
As for the hypothesis of Sino-Japanese war, experts generally believe that there is only one outcome-Japan's "country will not be country".
This view is based on the following factors:
First of all, Japan's geographical conditions determine that its strategic depth is very limited.
Once a conflict occurs, Japan's mainland will be under the direct threat of China's offshore operations.
China has stronger military strength and greater resource mobilization ability, and has an absolute advantage in military conflicts.
Secondly, although Japan has the support of the United States, the intervention of the United States may be more strategic deterrence than direct participation in the war.
Japan cannot afford the cost of all-out war, nor will it risk putting the country on the brink of devastating blow.
Therefore, the military conflict between China and Japan is more likely to remain at the level of “determination” than a total war.
Whether takaichi sanae or Koizumi Shinjiro are elected, Japanese China policy will be profoundly influenced by the United States in its Asia-Pacific strategy.
The upgrading of U.S.-Japanese military cooperation, the potential risks of Sino-Japanese economic cooperation and the continued fermentation of the issue of the Fisheries Islands will all become important variables affecting Sino-Japanese relations.
However, both sides are aware of the cost of military conflict, so they are more likely to seek strategic balance in the game and avoid real war.
The future of China-Japan relations still needs close attention from the international community.