The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
The Preface:
Trump's attitude "changed" and openly supported Ukraine, and also said that Russia had not won the war for years, it was a paper tiger.
This time Russia may really “Dangerous”But the main point may not be the "economic sanctions" that Trump has repeatedly emphasized, but the "new military aid model"...
On the 23rd, Trump issued a heavy "small composition", which was the first time in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that he "supported" Ukraine in a rather distinctive way.
Trump believes that he understands the current military and economic status quo between the two sides of the conflict, so Ukraine, with the support of European organizations, has the hope of “winning” and restoring the border to “the original state”.
This 180-degree turn of attitude is in sharp contrast to what Trump has mentioned three or five times with Putin’s “good relationship.”
Even Zelensky was “surprised” and subsequently stated that Trump had happened. "Major shift"This also makes their relationship “better than before.”
Having said that, what Zelensky said is somewhat "wrong". At the beginning of this year, the two of them had a big fight in the White House. Even if it is good, how better can it be?
So Trump's shift in attitude can basically be concluded that it has nothing to do with "private relationships" and more to make decisions based on other considerations.
Since entering the White House in late January, Trump has continued to pressure Ukraine to make concessions through Ukraine in negotiations to reach a “peace deal”.
However, after the US-Russian talks on August 15, things did not seem to develop as Trump wanted.
At the summit Putin visited the United States, no agreement was reached, and the entire meeting lasted only about half the planned time – 3.5 hours.
The original one-on-one negotiations turned into 3VS3, the delegation meeting did not take place, and even a series of signals such as the cancellation of the dinner showed a "bad" effect.
Although afterwards, Putin called the talks "constructive" and claimed to have established a "very good direct contact" with Trump. But I'm afraid this is only for Russia.
After all, “Putin’s visit to the United States” itself has already meant that the reality of isolating Russia has been crushed, regardless of whether there is a deal or not, it is a “victory” for Putin.
But not necessarily for Trump.
Russia, which controls 18 percent of Ukraine’s territory, has no rush to a ceasefire, as this advantage is enough to boost negotiating initiative.
So even the next Trump and Zelensky "talk" again, has not been able to change this status quo, even that Russia's actions are still "additional".
In the middle of this month, Poland first claimed that multiple Russian drones flew over Poland, and then Romania and Estonia made similar statements.
Both claimed that Russian warplanes appeared over airspace, posing a serious threat.
It can be said that now Russia's overall trend has begun to "test" NATO, and at the same time the scale of Russian attacks on Ukraine has not decreased.
Zelensky said that Russia used as many as 40 missiles and 600 drones to attack Uzbekistan overnight, causing dozens of people to die.
The Russian Defense Ministry subsequently confirmed that everything was going according to Putin’s “plan.”
This situation is enough to allow Trump to "seat" under domestic political pressure, and already at the beginning of this term he said that he would quickly settle the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
For the last six months, things have been in a standstill.
Especially when hawks and military interest groups within the Republican Party are "dissatisfied" with this, Trump still needs to deal with the right-wing voters in next year's mid-term elections.
Therefore, the change of attitude towards Russia is not difficult to "speculate".
At the same time, Trump is also facing external pressure: Germany, Poland, and Britain, the core NATO allies, have been calling on the United States to clearly support Ukraine to avoid the collapse of the front due to the US vague position.
In this case, since Trump's strategy of successively trying to resolve conflicts through direct dialogue with Putin has "failed", it is enough for him to reorganize the status quo.
In addition to publicly supporting Ukraine this time, Trump also showed a "tough" attitude towards Russia that had not been seen for a long time.
On the 23rd, Trump successively "fire" against Russia, on the one hand directly in the speech to call Russia "paper tiger", and on the other hand to declare: more Russian fighter jets violate NATO airspace, then no hesitation, hit down!
At this time, U.S. Secretary of State rubio is also following up Trump's attitude, believing that Trump has shown "extraordinary patience".
But this patience is not unlimited, so the United States will not only continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, but also impose economic sanctions on Moscow.
Yeah, that's right. Economic sanctions are the "optimal solution" that Trump thinks can strongly attack Russia, so in the article, Trump particularly emphasized Russia's economic difficulties.
He believes that Russia currently has no access to gasoline, whether in cities or villages, because most of Russia’s money has already been spent against Ukraine.
Obviously, Trump believes that cutting energy revenues is enough to “low Russia’s head,” which is “unintended” in line with the recent remarks made by EU Commission President Von der Leyen after his meeting with Trump.
Von der Leyen said Trump’s stopping Russia’s energy initiatives was “wise” and the EU will follow this step, not only by cutting gas purchases right now, but also by preparing for a complete “breakdown” in 2027.
According to the report, Russia is “Dangerous”Well, we do not rule out the possibility of Russia’s failure under pressure from the US West.
But it seems that Trump didn't completely "see clearly" the war. In fact, since 2022, many experts have been "bearish" on the Russian economy, believing that "it will collapse within half a year" and "the ruble will become waste paper."
In fact, the Russian economy has not rebounded, and in terms of energy, although this year's oil production is expected to be reduced to 5.16 billion tons, it is still on the same level as last year, there is no collapse.
Behind this is the result of Russia's active expansion of the Asia-Pacific market, and under this trend, Russian natural gas exports have shown an upward trend.
It is said that from the outset, Putin has set up a "special military operation" and has not intended to "fast-paced warfare".
A few days ago, the data that Medvedev, vice chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, accidentally "spilled the mouth" also proved this situation.
Medvedev said that the bill on the Russian budget for next year is not just a military budget, but a long-term strategy.
It shows that the “Russian-Ukrainian conflict” is only the beginning of Russia’s long-term geo-game.
To be honest, Russia may not really be so afraid of economic sanctions, but the "new model of military aid" mentioned by Trump is the point where Russia will feel "dangerous".
Trump made it clear that he would provide "top weapons" to Ukraine through NATO. These military aid will be paid by NATO, and soon 17 sets of Patriot missiles will be sent to Ukraine.
It can be seen that the model of European payments, the U.S. arms supply, is enough to put a lot of pressure on Russia on the frontline, which is the most possible aid for Ukraine to push the border back to the “start point.”
References:
China News Network "Trump says Ukraine's border is expected to" return to its original state "Zelensky: a major change"