Preliminary

Since September, Germany Cabinet negotiationsFive months without results, the French government averages. 4 monthsI have to change, England. Fiscal deficitApproaching GDP 8%。

The political machinery of the three European pillars at the same time, Strikes, protests, government collapsesEven officials in Brussels couldn't sit still.

Can the EU hold on? This scene Political earthquakeHow much longer is it going to last?

Germany cannot form a government in 5 months, and France changes its prime minister every 4.2 months

GermanySince the election in February, 5 monthsThere was a mess in parliament.Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, the Self-Democratic Party, plus the outbreak of the army Choose the party.No one will let anyone, and there is no agreement on key issues.

What about energy subsidies and how to deal with immigration?

What's worse is, Choose the party.In the eastern states it has become No. 1 party。

Traditional political parties are frightened, preferring to remain deadlocked rather than compromise, for fear of giving votes to the far right as soon as they let go. As a result, policies have stagnated, reforms have failed, and even what should have been promoted The energy transitionPlans are also stagnant.

No one wants to work, but No one can make a decision。The Germans began to doubt that this was the most efficient Germany.

FRANCEThe situation is more headache.Since the Prime Minister was killed by a "vote of no confidence" in early February, the new government has averaged 4.2 monthsWe have to substitute.The newly appointed prime minister hasn't sat on the hot bench yet, nationwide strikeJust come here.

Traffic paralysed, schools shut down, hospitals "turned off", and even the Paris subway was set up.

You can walk in the streets of Paris at any time. strikeThe team held slogans and shouted slogans.

Reform of pensionsIt became a spark, the government wanted to save spending, delay the retirement age, and the people, of course, did not.The French love strikes, which is not new, but the scale is large and the time is long.

The government wants to cut spending while maintaining welfare, and it is in a dilemma. The ruling team simply doesn't have enough influence to solve the problem.

England isIt's even worse over there.The data released by the Ministry of Finance in August startled everyone: the government borrowedA lot more than expected.Deficit to GDP ratio 8%This is the first time since Brexit.

Inflation still stands. 3.8%At the highest point in a year and a half, the interest rate of the state debt has surged steadily.

Market confidence in the UK economy is rapidly losing, with the pound exchange rate dancing.

Worse, the Labour government support rate is close to last year’s election. 40%Fell to the present 20%。Extreme-right support for the British Reform Party has risen. 30%It has become a force to pay attention to in parliament.

On September 13, London exploded. Ten thousandA massive march.

On the one hand, the crowd opposed “tax immigrants” and on the other hand, the protests for the rights of ethnic minorities. Two waves of people and police clashed on the streets, and many people were arrested and even police were injured.

What the British are most afraid of now is the rise in prices.

The pension is unchanged, the immigration problem explodes.

On the surface, each of the three countries has its own troubles. But digging deeper, I found that behind it logicalSurprisingly consistently.

Go ahead. Germany。This was once.” The European Factory“We are undergoing a painful transformation." Decarbonization + Decarbonization"The double pressure of traditional manufacturing industry makes the traditional manufacturing industry breathless.

Energy costs are soaring and SMEs are complaining bitterly. Green transition requires money, but government finances have long been stretched, and military spending and energy subsidies have burst the budget.

What's worse is, peopleWe have lost confidence in the mainstream political parties.Workers in the eastern industrial zone listened to the far-right rhetoric: "It's immigrants who rob your jobs, and it's the EU who holds Germany back."

Results Choose the party.Support rates are rising in these areas.

FRANCEThe problem is more complex.This is a typical " High welfare and high taxes“Nation, but now this model is not playing fast.

The population is aging seriously, pensionaryThe gap is growing and the government has to reform.But a move to retire is like a move to French cheese, and the people of course have to resist.

The French parliament is now broken like a puzzle, the left and right wings are incompatible, and the centrists are weak. Just discussing "how to change it" can hold a whole day's meeting. As for "how to implement it", no one dares to slap the head.

The immigration issueMore oil in the fire.Security incidents in the suburbs of Paris are frequent, and far-right parties have the opportunity to hype and blame all social problems on immigrants.

England isThe trouble is.” Sequelae of Brexit"Full-out.After the Brexit, the shortage of labor, trade barriers, industrial outflows, all have caused the economy to crumble.

In the first quarter of 2025, GDP almost stepped in, but fiscal spending jumped.

The government tried to cut spending in exchange for market recognition, but ended up being strikeand public opinion.Border inspection, subway and medical staff went on strike in turn, and the operation of the whole country was affected.

After all, all three countries face the same difficulties: The old development modelhas gone to the end.

The dividends of globalization have come to an end, but the account for the aging of the population has just begun. welfare countriesThe model needs a steady stream of economic growth to support it, but now that the growth is weak, the contradiction has erupted.

Even worse, there has been a serious clash between the traditional political elite and the ordinary people. Recognition of differences。Politicians are still talking about globalization, integration, and modernization, while people are worried about jobs, housing prices, and prices.

such disconnectedGive extreme parties an opportunity.

When the Three Kingdoms are in chaos, the whole of Europe is unlucky

Individual problems are terrible. Chain reactions。 GermanyAs the midstream pillar of the European Union, once internal affairs are paralyzed, the whole EU's policy advance will be difficult.

The green transition plan, immigration quota rules, debt reforms, all need Germany’s support.

Now Germany itself can’t be sure, and the EU is sitting on the negotiating table.

FRANCEIt was an active driver of European integration, but is now tired of dealing with domestic turmoil.On issues such as defence integration, foreign policy coordination and aid to Ukraine, France has little to do with it.

England isAlthough it has left the European Union, its economic fluctuations still have a huge impact on the European financial market.

There is still a great deal of cross-dependence between London’s Financial City and the euro area capital markets, with the UK turbulent, followed by tensions across Europe.

International investors begin to reconsider Europe isThe “security.”The risk premium of French sovereign bonds is rising, and the cost of British borrowing has reached a new high. Market sentimentClearly turned cold.

Multinational investment projects in the fields of technology and energy have been forced to shut down, and some companies have even started to consider moving their European headquarters to North America or Southeast Asia.

The bigger hidden danger is that, GeostrategyCapacity is severely weakened.The fighting in Ukraine has not yet been settled, and Europe should have strengthened its own defence integration.But now countries are busy with the "fire rescue", who has the power of the "other home" battlefield?

Financial pressure in Britain. Reducedbudget of aid.France's military spending growth plan has also stalled due to parliamentary delays. Germany intended to take the lead in promoting the EU defense cooperation framework, but now it is difficult to protect itself.

The International Monetary Fund’s latest report warns that this is Europe.” The worst institutional crisis since World War II"。

World BankThe assessment report pointed out that if the European political crisis continues, it will affect the stability of the global supply chain.European foreign direct investment may decrease in the next two years 15-20%。This is not only a loss for Europe, but also a negative impact on the global economic recovery.

Eventually, Europe’s mess is no longer.” Domestic chores"。

In the era of globalization, political turmoil in any important economy will have spillover effects.

Does Europe still have a chance to turn over

Will Europe sink here? The answer is not so pessimistic. Judging from the current situation, Europe isThere are three possible paths in the future.The most realistic situation is the adoption of compromisedContinue to maintain surface stability.

Germany may have to keep up with a "Great Coalition Government" or a similar combination. France will repeatedly be upset between changing prime ministers and forming a technological government. Britain will be careful to weigh the balance between tax increases and spending cuts when it publishes its budget.

In this case, it can still function normally, but ReformedBasically it stops.

The worst may also be obvious.If France breaks out again in a crisis of trust, street strikes escalate further, and policy advancement will be more difficult.

Germany in local elections. The extreme rightIn the next city, the pressure on the ruling coalition will be greater.If the public sector strike in Britain spreads to the whole fields of transportation, medical care and education, the social order will be severely impacted.

These risks could cause huge volatility in financial markets, and European bonds and euro exchange rates could jump with new political news at any time.

But even the most ideal situation is not impossible. Energy PricesContinuing to decline, inflation pressure has eased, and the real income of the people has increased.

If European countries could Industrial policyA stronger compromise on immigration.If the external environment improves, for example, the situation in Ukraine tends to stabilize, US-European relations will warm up.

The risk of political fragmentation in Europe would then be reduced.

But such optimism takes a lot. The external conditionsCooperation also requires enough wisdom and courage from politicians from all countries.

The key is that Europe must face a reality: The old order.It's really time to update.The post-war political-economic model, which has been established in the wake of the disappearance of global dividends, demographic changes, and the impact of the technological revolution, has become remarkable.

This crisis is not a failure of the system, but the system TransitioningThe inevitable pain.

What Europe is facing now is the shift from the industrial age to the digital age, from national countries to regional integration, from welfare countries to sustainable development models. Triple transformation。

Germany's industrial system is still strong, France's technological innovation capabilities can not be underestimated, and the UK's financial services industry is still under control. The window of opportunity.。The next three to five years will be a crucial period for success in this move.

If European countries can put aside short-term competition for interests and face long-term challenges together, then this crisis may become The fire rebirth.The opportunity .

conclusion

this time Systemic CrisisIt's not an accident, but the inevitable result of the deep adjustment of the post-war political order in Europe.