U.S. Ambassador to China, Mr. Pondwei, suddenly said a meaningful sentence when he met with a congressional delegation in Beijing: “The U.S.-China big order for Boeing aircraft has entered the final phase” and has not forgotten to add one: “This is very important to Trump.”
Why should a diplomat personally stand out to “blow up”? why can an airplane order make the U.S. government get up and down and get stressed?
In other words, it is Trump’s return to the White House in 2024.
Behind the Boeing order, a Trump-style political first aid
The words he used were “the last days,” “the last weeks,” and sounded not as describing a business negotiation, but rather as hurrying to complete a political project.
You can hardly imagine an ambassador using this tone of voice unless there is someone behind him waiting for results. This person, of course, is Trump.
The company has been bad for the last few years.After the US-China trade war began in 2018, Boeing became the “front victim”; in 2019, the 737 MAX two air crashes made it credible; coupled with the global aviation industry shutdown during the epidemic, Boeing’s position dropped.
Especially in the Chinese market, Boeing has been almost kicked out of office, and the market, which was originally opened with Airbus Five, is now largely unique to Europeans. According to the Wall Street Journal, Boeing in the past three years in China delivered only a third of the pre-epidemic.
This is already an alarm for an aircraft manufacturer that relies on export food.
But Boeing's problems can't just be solved by one company. Because it affects the American manufacturing system behind it. Especially in the rust belt of the Midwest-Missouri, Michigan and Ohio, where workers rely on Boeing to eat, and the votes in these places are Trump's most critical basic disk.
You can say that a Boeing order may not save all the workers, but it can save Trump's campaign rhythm. A large-scale aircraft purchase agreement will not only give him "results" to talk about in his campaign speech, but also strengthen his image of "America first" and "I can handle China".
China is not in a hurry, the logic of the market dominates.
This is not the first time Boeing has been used as a “diplomatic tool”.In 2017, when Trump first visited China, the US signed a contract for the purchase of 300 aircraft, the White House then blasted the matter to the sky, directly packaged into a “historic victory.”
This operation is obviously a repeat of the old drama.But the difference is that at the time, China and the United States were also considered the "Honeymoon", and now China and the United States relations, competition is greater than cooperation, the game has penetrated into every detail.
So the question arises, will China “buy an account again”? it doesn’t seem so simple.
First, China is no longer the market that needs to "fill the void" with foreign technology.The domestic large aircraft C919 has been put into commercial operation, although the number is not much, but the direction is clear.
According to Xinhua, China will add tens of thousands of civilian aircraft in the next 20 years, the market space is huge, but the Chinese side has made it clear that the aviation industry should be autonomous, can not always rely on others.
When China buys aircraft, it looks not only at the price, but also at security, technology, after-sales and political risks.
Pondweigh stressed that the order was “very important to Trump,” a phrase that has actually exposed the real intention of the U.S. side: not for cooperation, but for voting.
If this deal is just to build momentum for Trump's campaign, then China certainly has reason to consider it carefully. Business belongs to business, and politics cannot be tied up. Especially under the background that Sino-US relations are still complicated and sensitive, China is unlikely to "give gifts" easily.
This is usually announced by companies, but this time by the ambassador personally, indicating that the U.S. government has begun to "surge".
This may also be a negotiation strategy, trying to create a "public opinion forcing" effect by leaking information in advance and forcing China to sign at the end. However, this technique is too familiar, but it is easy to arouse China's resentment. You know, China has never taken the trick of "putting pressure".
The cooperation window is still there, but it can’t be opened by “crying.”
It should be noted that this deal, even if it is, does not necessarily change the fundamental contradiction between China and the United States. aircraft orders are only appearances, behind the deep differences of technological restrictions, geographic confrontation, and so on.
If the U.S. hopes to make a “lubricant” based on a deal, it’s too simple to think about.In fact, China pays more attention to rules and stability, and cooperation is possible, but must be equal, sustainable, and not a temporary political operation.
From a more macro perspective, the Boeing order is actually a miniature.It reflects a “experimental contact” between the two countries in the current competitive pattern.
For the US, this is a window to “show results”; for the Chinese, it is a node to “observe honesty.”
Of course, it cannot be denied that the order is realistic for both sides.The Chinese aviation market is still expanding, and it does require a lot of new aircraft; Boeing also does have a technical and capacity advantage, as long as the products qualify, the deal itself is not excluded.
But the question is, can cooperation be separated from politics? At least for now, it's hard.
Trump's abacus is very clear: take China's orders to appease domestic industries, and by the way, create topics in the campaign. But China will not easily follow this rhythm.
The lessons of the past have been enough, and the habit of the U.S. side to change has made the Chinese side increasingly alert.This time, China may be more willing to decide transactions on market principles than on political winds.
As for whether the agreement can be signed in the end, it depends on the follow-up actions. Pang Dewei said that "the last few days" may only be for the media, and the actual game is still in progress.
If the U.S. side talks about aircraft while continuing to challenge in other areas, then the deal is highly likely to be returned to its original shape. China will not make unnecessary compromises on more critical issues for one order, which is the bottom line issue.
conclusion
So, this Boeing order, is a business, and a test. It tests whether there is room for cooperation between China and the United States, and whether it can still find a meeting point of interest in the fierce competition.
If the answer is yes, then this deal may bring a little positive signal; If the answer is no, then it is just another "diplomatic show". After Pang Dewei released the news, the global media were staring at the progress of this deal.
But the real decision-making power is not in his hands, nor in Trump's hands, but in China's market logic and strategic judgment.
Whether China will pay the bill is not determined by releasing the wind, but by real sincerity, ability and rules. This is the real foundation of cooperation. Trump may need this order very much, but China is in no hurry. Urgent, it's a matter for America.