In September 2025, the Russian military launched an unprecedented airstrike on Ukraine, with fires shining over Kiev, missiles and drones flying over, as if it was at the height of a major war.
But if you think it’s just another “military escalation” of Russia, you probably underestimate Putin’s patience and calculation.
The Ukrainian battlefield is only a "superficial effort", and the real target was quietly set as early as four years ago. This is not a temporary conflict, but a strategic game that travels through time and is patiently laid out.
Putin is fighting on the surface, but in fact he is setting rules
At first glance, Russia’s goal seems simple: defeat Ukraine, control Donbass, and get out of the sea.But if it is so straightforward, Putin, the KGB-born strategist, is not necessarily too “performing player.”
From the outbreak of the conflict in 2022 to the present day, the rhythm of the Russian army has changed repeatedly.After the failure of the initial "Flash Battle", Russia quickly adjusted its direction, turning to the consumption war and the enduring war.
Donetsk has become the main direction of attack at this stage, because it is both a political symbol and a military location. Winning it will not only make business at home, but also gain an extra bargaining chip at the future negotiating table.
The operational targets “inadvertently” exposed on the map by the Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces – Odessa, Nikolayev and even Kharkov – have long exposed Putin’s true intention: not to win a battle, but to dry up Ukraine’s strategic space.
If Odessa is controlled, Ukraine loses access to the sea, like a person is blocked in the airway; while NATO’s presence in the Black Sea will be instantly weakened, and Europe’s “background” will be completely exposed to Russia.
From this perspective, the so-called “special military operation” is more like a geopolitical surgical operation, not to swallow Ukraine, but to “cut” it into a buffer zone that is harmless to Russia and hopeless to NATO.
The real hard dish is not a battlefield, but order.
If Putin just wanted to draw a security line on the edge of Ukraine, this conflict might have ended long ago. His real plan is to turn this war into a "reshaping experiment" of the global order.
Don't forget, NATO planes take off from the Baltic Sea and fly into Russian airspace in less than 10 minutes.
This sense of oppression keeps Russia living in the anxiety of "being encircled and suppressed" all the time. However, Western countries continue to expand NATO borders, as if shaking their fists at the door of Russia and saying, "Don't you dare to move."
So this war, for Russia, is not just a “guard of the family”, but a tough battle, so that the West realizes that this area is not what you say.
And Ukraine happens to be that "test field". As early as four years ago, Putin began to promote "Eurasian integration" and create a post-Soviet space with Russia as the core.
He doesn’t just want a Ukraine, he wants a “Russian influence zone” – from Central Asia to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus, no one can jump out of that circle.
The Eurasian Economic Union, the separation of Crimea, the control line of the eastern Uzbek region, all these are Putin’s carefully crafted chords.
What he wants is a new framework different from the American order, a new geo-system that doesn't rely on NATO, doesn't use the US dollar and doesn't listen to Washington.
This is Putin’s ultimate goal: not to win a war, but to break a set of rules.
It’s not a war, it’s a geopolitical “psychological war.”
Putin is not fighting this battle with tanks and missiles alone. He is better at "sowing discord" and "borrowing strength".
From Trump to Biden, the repeated swings of U.S. policy towards Russia gave Putin a chance to do so. During Trump's period there was a "United Russia system" in the head, although it has not become a climate, but has left the European-American alliance relationship a crack.
The U.S. is trying to weaken Russia through an “agent war”, but the domestic economic pressures and electoral cycles make the U.S. strategic resilience seem somewhat overwhelming.
Putin sees it clearly: as long as the United States is dragged into a long-term war of attrition, Europe will become "ape-minded".
Even worse, Europe’s energy dependence on Russia can’t get rid of in the short term.North Stream 2 was called off, Germany’s energy prices rose, and France began to rethink nuclear energy issues.
Putin even said publicly that the EU has already lost $24 billion to Russia because of sanctions.This number is not to scare anyone, but to tell Europe naked: if you hurt me a shot, you will also shed blood.
On the other hand, Russia is not sitting there.
Faced with tens of thousands of sanctions, Putin launched a set of “economic survival combinations”: de-dollarization, domestic payment system MIR, self-sufficient agricultural system, anti-sanctions legislation... These measures have made the Russian economy difficult, but not collapse.
At the same time, Putin has not forgotten the diplomatic card. He tightened relations with China, India, Iran, and Saudi Arabia, especially his interaction with countries in the "Global South", and became Russia's "diplomatic cushion" against the West.
This trick does not seek to reverse the situation immediately, but it can stabilize the periphery, making it impossible for the West to form an absolute periphery.
Can Putin win this game?
We must acknowledge that Putin’s layout has indeed given the world a “horror”—not just a military conflict, but a pressure test for the global order.
In the short term, whether Ukraine can still keep the east, whether Russia will continue to advance to Odessa, these are tactical matches.
It is destined to be a long-term project for the West to completely contain Russia.
In this process, it is difficult for Europe not to be dragged into internal conflicts and energy anxiety; If the United States wants to maintain its global strategic initiative, it must also weigh the allocation of resources in the two battlefields of "Indo-Pacific" and "Europe".
This conflict also provides a real case for countries around the world: In the game of great powers, security cannot be pinned on the commitments of others, let alone ignore the importance of strategic autonomy. What happened to Ukraine is a warning: it is better to rely on yourself than to rely on NATO.
At the same time, this conflict has also had a real impact on the global climate agenda. In order to keep warm for the winter, Europe has to restart coal power; In response to the geopolitical crisis, the military spending of various countries has soared, and green energy projects have been forced to "give way".
Can Putin win this game of chess? No one can give an affirmative answer. But what is certain is that he has pushed the chessboard from Ukraine to the world, extending the war from the battlefield to the multi-dimensional space of currency, energy, diplomacy, and institutions.
The game is far from over, and the most anxious, I am afraid, is not Ukraine or Russia, but the world that once “talked.”
conclusion
Ukraine is just the prologue. What Putin really wants to rewrite is the rules of the game itself.
From a “special military operation” to a restructuring of the global order, he spent four years playing a game of chess, which is a matter of choice, not just for Russia and Ukraine, but for the whole world.