As time goes by, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has entered its fourth year. If this were not the case, no one would have thought that this conflict could last for four years, and it was just a conflict. Both sides tacitly agreed not to fight against the other party. declared war.
On a front line stretching for more than 1,000 kilometers, the Russian army's initial quick-decision "special military operation" failed to meet expectations, and gradually fell into a protracted and costly war of attrition.
Putin rarely acknowledged at a high-level meeting that the deployment of Russian troops in the direction of Ukraine has exceeded 700,000, but no one considered it the advantage of the Russian military, on the long front from Kharkov to Zaporozhye, 700,000 troops not only did not bring a decisive breakthrough, but instead brought a heavy logistical burden.
The Ukrainian army has come up with an effective set of "drones + mines + snipers + guerrillas" combinations, which make it difficult for the Russian army to play out its traditional quantitative advantage.
The Ukrainian army no longer carried out a large-scale positive offensive, but relied on the infiltration and long-range strikes of the troops, continuing to harass the Russian army behind, such a tactic that transformed the war from a "rapid knife" to a "rapid knife".
The amount of ammunition, fuel, food and medical resources consumed by the 700,000 troops every day is staggering, making Russia's finances "as difficult to plug as a leaky bucket". Although Russia can still obtain funds through oil and gas exports, the technological blockade and export restrictions under Western sanctions have made Russia's embarrassing situation of "having money but not using it" increasingly prominent.
According to the survey, the demand for recruitment in Russian defense enterprises has fallen to the lowest level since the start of the Total War, with the number of jobs released this summer decreasing by about 10 percent compared to the same period last year, and the level of wages has also fallen.
The Ukrainian side, with the support of the West, has achieved a clear advantage in drone technology.The EU sees this by investing a huge €6 billion in a "drone alliance" with Ukraine, aimed at turning Ukraine's creativity into a battlefield advantage.
The solution developed by Ukraine is much less expensive compared to using missile intercepting drones.They identify the drone through an acoustic sensor system and then transmit intelligence to hundreds of mobile groups equipped with air defense cannons and heavy machine guns.This innovative tactic makes it difficult for expensive Russian air defense systems to respond effectively.
Although the Russian army also frequently uses drones to carry out strikes, these military operations instead stimulate the West to increase aid to Ukraine.Technical surplus has caused Russia to fall into passivity, the Russian army is still using the old Soviet approach, and the Ukrainian army has entered a new phase of "technological warfare".
Poland, Lithuania, Romania and other Eastern-wing NATO countries have strengthened border deployments, and there are even scenes of troops starting to exercise “resist Russian raids.”
While the Trump administration cried out to “negotiate a solution,” military aid was not much.A new round of aid program for Ukraine has been passed by Congress, and heavy weapons, training funding, and intelligence sharing are all synchronized.Trump’s logic is clear: with stronger military aid, the Russians feel “unmovable” and then force them to sit down and negotiate.
Russia is even more embarrassed by the fact that the EU is using its frozen Russian asset revenues to support Ukraine.The EU has set up a six-billion-euro fund dedicated to supporting Ukrainian drone technology.
Poland has even proposed to participate in the "nuclear sharing" program, considering the deployment of foreign nuclear weapons on its territory.While the Polish side says it is "too early" to talk about developing nuclear weapons at the moment, this move is enough to seriously disturb Russia.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov expressed a profound sense of "understanding the position that President Trump wants to resolve the conflict through negotiations."This is the first time since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022, Russia has actively called for the United States to intervene in mediation in a formal gesture.
Directly seeking reconciliation is too dishonest for Russia, but if it is “in response to Trump’s demand for peace,” it is a “high-gender compromise.”
Putin's government is also actively stabilizing the domestic situation. Faced with the most serious labor shortage in history, Russia attracts labor from other countries through preferential policies on the one hand, and strives to improve labor productivity on the other. However, these measures are difficult to solve the underlying problems in the short term.
In military terms, Russia has also begun to adjust tactics. The Russian army is more focused on using drones to perform reconnaissance missions and reduce the exposure of the infantry to the battlefield. At the same time, the Russian army has especially strengthened electronic warfare capabilities, trying to offset the Ukrainian army's technical advantage. However, these adjustments have limited effects, making it difficult to reverse the overall battle scene.
Trump has repeatedly stressed that “he can solve the crisis in 24 hours.” The shift in Russian attitude seems to confirm Trump’s assertions.
On the one hand, Trump claims he hopes for a negotiated settlement of the conflict; on the other hand, U.S. military aid to Ukraine is on the rise.This strategy of “promotion by war” aims to get Russia to make greater concessions at the negotiating table.
The midterm elections were in which the party he belonged to had been questioning the effect of spending aid on Ukraine. Russia’s strong performance on the battlefield was equivalent to directly hitting the face of Trump’s foreign policy. Therefore, Trump needed to show diplomatic achievements to cope with domestic pressure.
For Russia, Trump is a force to rely on. Russia knows that negotiating directly with Ukraine means recognizing its equal status, which Moscow is unwilling to accept. Through the mediation of the United States, Russia can maintain the dignity of a great power and achieve the goal of easing the situation.
Despite Russia’s willingness to negotiate, it still faces serious obstacles to achieving peace.In the context of the continued increase in Western aid and the gradual results of drone tactics, the Ukrainian side is more inclined to “hit iron when it is hot” and to fight for more outcomes through military means.
Real peace negotiations involve complex security arrangements, geographical patterns, economic compensation and the reconstruction of post-war order. Who will guarantee the agreement? How to divide the boundary? What to do with frozen assets? These problems can't be solved by a few words "we are willing to talk".
The White House has changed its attitude, labeled Russia a "paper tiger" and announced that it supports Ukraine's victory, but the United States stressed that support does not include direct intervention, but that Ukraine should win with European support.
As a responsible power, China has put forward a number of peace initiatives under the Belt and Road framework, emphasizing the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries.
Russia's 700,000 troops deep into the Ukrainian battlefield, marking the conflict has shifted from the anticipated lightning war to a long-lasting consumption war.The Russian attitude shift, the proactive intervention, reflect both the difficult situation on the battlefield and the pragmatic choice in the face of international pressure.
Trump’s “prophecy” seems to come true, but the actual situation is far more complex than he describes. Behind Russia’s concession gesture, more is strategic adjustment than surrender. Like many conflicts in history, the path of peace is often twisted, and all parties are trying to find the best solution in the game.
Technical weapons such as drones are changing the traditional way of operating, so that quantitative advantage is no longer a decisive factor.At the same time, non-military means such as economic sanctions, energy games, diplomatic siege, play an increasingly important role in conflict.
For the world, the shift in Russian attitude may be the dawn of the day, but the path to peace is still full of variations.
Reference source:
Putin: More than 700,000 Russian soldiers fight on the Ukrainian front —2025-09-19