[Global Times-Global Network Reporter Ding Yazhi Zhang Yiyi] On September 23, local time, Polish Prime Minister Tusk stated that the border crossings with Belarus would be reopened in the early morning of the 25th. This means that the China-Europe trains stranded in Malaszewicz and Brest regions, which are connected to Poland and Belarus, can finally set off westward again, and China's main land trade routes to Europe will be restored.

"Everything has finally returned to normal!" a number of China-European freight forward 24 to the "Global Times" reporter, the transportation of stalled goods is about to be restored, let them breathe, but the current priority is to deal with the accumulated load as soon as possible over the past ten days, which is likely to take seven to ten days, this wave of winds let us industry people and customers pay more attention to the diversification of China-European trade transport and the ability to cope with geopolitical uncertainty ".

The backlog is expected to take 7 to 10 days to clear

On the 12th of this month, due to the "West-2025" joint strategic exercise, Poland closed all Polish-Belarus border crossings from now on. Although the military exercise ended on the 16th, Polish Minister of Interior and Administration Marcin Kelwinski announced at the press conference that all Polish-Belarus border crossings (including roads and railways) will remain closed indefinitely until "the safety of Polish citizens is fully guaranteed".

This decision cut off a major land transportation route for Chinese goods to the EU through Russia ¨C Belarus ¨C Poland. According to the US ¡°Political News Network¡± report, 90 percent of rail freight between China and Europe must enter the EU through Poland. By 2024, Central European freight traffic through the channel grew by 10.6 percent, and the value of goods rose by 85 percent, reaching 250.7 billion euros.

Xi'an International Land Harbor Multifunctional Transportation Co., Ltd. general manager Shao Boer told the reporter of the Global Times on the 24th that China and Europe can be divided into Central Asia and Central Europe in two directions, China and Europe direction is also divided into Russian line line line line line line and EU direction line. Among them, Russia, Belarus goods can arrive directly through broadway transportation to the destination, so is not affected by the closure of the Polish port; and in terms of the passage to the European Union, traditionally rely mainly on the "Central channel", that is, from Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus to Poland, this channel operation mature, cost is relatively low, time efficient, carried more than 98% of China's shipment to the European Union line, is the industry highly dependent core channel.

With the reopening of the border between Poland and Belarus, the first thing to solve is the backlog of goods accumulated for more than ten days. A relevant person in charge of Yiwu Kaichen International Freight Forwarding Co., Ltd. told the Global Times reporter that the company's backlog of goods at border ports alone reached 40 or 50 containers, each container with a cargo volume of about 68 cubic meters. The customs clearance time is initially estimated to take more than a week.

In an interview with the Global Times, Arkadiusz Filipowski, CEO of the Polish logistics company FulfilioSp.zo.o., said that as of 23rd local time, the cost of transport time faced by enterprises has reached 20 to 25 days, while under normal circumstances, the completion of similar transport tasks takes only 12 to 15 days, with a cost increase of 10 to 30%.

In order to speed up the efficiency of customs clearance, Belarusian Customs has extended the relevant customs formalities to September 27th, and identified the railway ports to resume traffic, including Kuznica-Grodno, Semyanufka-Svisloch and Malashevich-Brest. Philipski predicts that if the railway between Poland and Belarus operates 24 hours a day, the backlog of goods is expected to be cleared within 7 to 10 days; If priority is given to high-timeliness goods, the time can be shortened by another 1 to 2 days.

He believes that during the next two to three weeks of cleaning, railway transportation charges will increase by a small percentage of digits and the transport time will be extended by two to five days from the normal level.

Geographical uncertainty increases, but the "middle channel" of China-Europe freight trains still has advantages

According to Tusk on the 23rd, Poland will reopen its ports at midnight on the 24th. "The measure has served its purpose." But he hinted that Poland could close the crossings again if the threat reappears. "We still have this tool at our disposal and we will not hesitate to use it again if tensions rise."

However, Horworth, the head of a Shanghai freight company, told the Global Times that despite the increased uncertainty brought by geopolitics, most customers may still choose the traditional ¡°China channel.¡±

Shao Boer told the Global Times reporter that in order to cope with the uncertainty brought about by geopolitics, in addition to the "Middle Passage" through Poland, there are two alternative routes, namely the "South Passage" and the St. Petersburg sea-rail combined transport line. The southern passage needs to pass through Kazakhstan and Georgia, and run across the Caspian Sea (some sections also need to cross the Black Sea). However, the cost of this line is relatively high, the infrastructure along the line is relatively backward compared with the "middle channel", and it is strongly affected by natural conditions. In winter, it often encounters strong winds and heavy snow. It is only suitable for operation from April to November, and the timeliness is difficult to guarantee. It takes 15-18 days from Xi'an to Baku, and the total time of subsequent transshipment to the EU can easily exceed 35 days. Compared with the timeliness of shipping, it has no obvious advantage, but the cost is higher.

Regarding another alternative route, the St. Petersburg sea-rail intermodal line, Shao Boer said that this route starts from Kazakhstan, goes directly to St. Petersburg Port via Russia, is transferred to Hamburg, Germany, and then distributed to Duisburg, Mara and other places. The test shows that the entire time limit of this line is about 17 days. Although it is slightly inferior to the traditional middle channel, it has a certain competitiveness and has become a preferred scheme for platform companies around the world.

However, the line also faces challenges. He said that due to the rising economic costs and the limited shipping capacity of the St. Petersburg to Hamburg section, the line is currently unable to large-scale transportation, and the initial plan is to open 1-2 routes per week in response to customer needs, we will temporarily arrange overtime, such as currently has increased to 3 routes per week, but such overtime has not yet formed normal operation and it is difficult to maintain high frequency.

"I have recommended the St. Petersburg sea-rail combined transport route to many customers before, but they still prefer the traditional route. On the one hand, it is because the route is more stable and the risk involved by sea transportation is greater. On the other hand, there are also cost considerations." Huo Wen said.

It is also said that while the border closure caused a short-term chaos, it did not undermine the freight owner¡¯s confidence in traditional Central European freight lines. The border issue is an uncontrollable factor at the national political level, customers and carriers can generally understand that there is no serious confidence in the line, and the current number of customers choosing the route is still large. However, he mentioned that after entering the second half, the company¡¯s share of customers choosing sea transport has increased significantly, and the share of rail transport customers has fallen to more than 30%, ¡°but this may be caused by price differences.¡±

Although the alternative line has not yet replaced the traditional "China channel" on a large scale, but after this wave, the industry has a deeper understanding of the importance of the diversification of China-European trade lines. Zhou Boer told the "Global Times" reporter, for the platform company, from the perspective of comprehensive development, will actively develop more transportation lines, but if the line can operate successfully there is a core premise, is to obtain customer recognition and support. At present, the transportation costs of other alternative lines are relatively traditional "China channel" a little higher, if customers are unwilling to choose due to cost considerations, the normal operation of the line will face greater difficulties.

China-Europe logistics channel is not a "multiple-choice question"

At the same time that China continues to optimize China¡¯s land-based trade channels, the sea channels have also made significant breakthroughs.On the same day that Poland announced the re-opening of its border, China officially opened the world¡¯s first Arctic container high-speed route connecting China to Europe.On September 23, at 4:30 a.m., the ¡°Istanbul Bridge¡± cargo ship departed from Ningbo Harbour¡¯s Norton port area and headed to Britain¡¯s Flixstown port, marking the official opening of the ¡°Central European Arctic Express¡±.

It is understood that the route takes the northeastern Arctic route, through the White Long Strait, a single trip of about 18 days, will refresh Ningbo's shipping time record to Europe. According to the Russian satellite news agency website on 23rd, the opening of the Arctic Express provides a strong support for Chinese enterprises to cope with global trade uncertainty, and will further strengthen China's economic ties with Europe and the world.

From the perspective of transportation efficiency and adaptation scenarios, China-Europe freight trains and Arctic routes are not substitute relationships, but show distinctive characteristics of complementarity and symbiosis. Jian Junbo, director of the China-EU Relations Research Center of Fudan University and deputy secretary-general of the Shanghai European Society, told the Global Times that on the one hand, the China-Europe Arctic Express has reduced the link of changing tracks of land European trains, reduced the stay time of trains, and helped to improve economic benefits. On the other hand, shipping from the high seas avoids the inconvenience caused by emergencies caused by some geopolitical conflicts in European countries.

Philippsky said that in terms of transport time, the railway to transport goods to Poland / Central and Eastern Europe region takes 12-18 days, compared to the Arctic route to Northern Europe 18-20 days, performing comparable or more advantageous. In terms of cost, the current cost is lower than the pilot phase, the need to bear additional charges such as ice-grade ships Arctic routes, while the Arctic route in long-distance cross-sea transport, provides intermediate options for goods that are less cost-sensitive than the time-effective demand; in reliability, the Central and European train can operate year-round, although vulnerable to geopolitical factors such as the Baltic border, but can cover a wider Central and Eastern European inland point, the Arctic route has seasonal operations, operational capacity and other restrictions,

In addition, the advantages of China-Europe freight trains in flexibility and adaptation to small batches of goods further strengthen the complementarity between the two. Shao Boer said that compared with the recently opened Arctic route, China-Europe trains have richer route choices, and only 40 or 50 containers can be shipped in groups, which can quickly respond to the transportation needs of small and medium batches of goods, while the Arctic route is more suitable for large-scale and long-term transoceanic freight planning.