On this side of the United States, soybeans are ripe, on the other side of China, the wallet is not paid, the eye looking at a round and a round of consultations is done, the result hasn't gotten anything, China still has no order, the heart of the American farmers has also followed the cold half, Trump at this time only realized, the word is hard, the beans can not sell out is blank.
This situation, the Chinese side can sit down, the United States cannot stand up, China does not buy, the United States is in a hurry, the most pressing, of course, is Trump, he is not younger, the midterm elections are about to begin, the peasants have a joke, his political old man may be about to turn the boat.
Farms are full of warehouses, but no buyers.
American farmers this year is really not easy, it is not easy to hope for a large harvest, as a result, the market is cold and ice-like, the beans in the warehouse are piled up in the mountains, the eyes are squeezed quickly, but the Chinese side has not moved a little, at this time of the year, the order has long since flown, but now is the Mendoza.
Many people think that once the negotiations are over, China will be symbolic underground order, give a face, but this time it is not the same, China simply hit the suspension button, no face remains, not want to buy, but no intention to rely on the United States.
In the past, the model of "you sow and buy" now seems to be outdated, China has not been leisurely in the past few years, the south side has come closer, the east side has opened new channels, the purchasing power has become more and more stable, not afraid of your confession.
Although the two sides sat down and talked several times, the atmosphere looked quite lively every time, but the result was basically spinning in circles. The United States made two requirements: one is to continue to buy beans, and the other is to ensure that key resources are not broken. China's response is also very simple: you have to remove all your tariffs first, and then let's talk about cooperation.
This is not new, almost the same as in previous years, but the difference is that before China would still leave a little space, symbolic buying a little meaning, now, China's attitude is as written on the face: not in a hurry, no compromise, unusual.
China is not playing the game of cat and mouse with the United States, the set of "press you first and talk to you" tricks, can not be used to, this time is not to negotiate, but to speak clearly, rules.
Trump's fundamentals have begun to loosen
Trump's originally most stable supporters are now speaking out. Farmers are not stupid. They know that the market is the real backer. No matter how loud you talk, the beans can't be sold, and they still have to break their meals.
More embarrassingly, this emotion has not only stopped complaining, farmers began to organize, went to the streets to express dissatisfaction, on the other hand, the field beans can not be sold, on the other hand, the bank loan is not up, the pressure is growing, some people are not even the seed money for the next season.
This is no joke. What Trump is most afraid of is the basic problem. Once the supporters of these traditional red states turn the wind direction, the power will be further compressed.
China's idea is very clear. Instead of being passive again and again, it is better to take the initiative to lay out. Now, it seems that the decision of "finding a spare tire" in recent years is right. Not only is the cooperation in South America getting closer and closer, but even some countries that didn't have too deep ties in the past have begun to queue up for cooperation.
China no longer relies on the U.S. family and no longer considers the procurement of agricultural products as a negotiating "satisfaction", this time not buying, not a temporary decision, but has long paved the way.
To be honest, the bottom line of China now, is based on the basis of diversity, you do not reason, I do not rush; you want to joke, I change people, this idea once formed, it will be difficult to reverse again.
Trump’s “trigger trick” can’t delay the outcome
In the past few years, Trump's best trick is to drag, first to stifle the atmosphere, then slowly talk, and finally force the other party to make concessions, before this set sometimes really works, but now the situation has changed.
China is not in a hurry, but the United States is in a hurry first. Farmers can't wait, enterprises can't wait, and even government departments start to urge. Trump wants to delay again, but people around him don't agree.
Worse, domestic economic pressure has also begun to feed back to politics, and the export of agricultural products already accounted for a lot of share, and now the whole chain is followed by problems, from seeds, agricultural machinery to transportation, finance, every ring is dragged, and no one can do it alone.
Trump at this time realized that it is not enough to rely on strong statements, beans still have to be bought, votes still have to be voted, according to but Trump although he said a lot, but very rarely lowered his head, and said he did not admit that he had said before, such as having negotiated well with Afghanistan, such as communicating very smoothly with China, such as Trump will be very successful.
But this is not to say let go, Trump has always taken "hard" as a label, now he wants to face himself, difficulty is not small, but not face, the situation in front of the eye can not be solved.
This falls into a difficult situation: not loose, the peasants are opposed, a loose, the political image will be damaged, at this time Trump, like riding on the wall, is not good on both sides.
China's patience is based on preparation
Some say that China is too "cold-blooded" and that American farmers are so bad and do not help, but the fact is that China has long seen this trade very well, and it is impossible to make easy concessions because of the pressure of the public opinion.
If you want to stabilize the market, you have to stabilize yourself first. In this wave, China's calmness and patience are actually based on long-term preparation. It is not that it does not buy, but that it has changed the object of buying; Not uncooperative, but no longer being led by the nose.
Once this strategic idea is formed, it is not one or two soft words can be impressed, which also means that in the future, the U.S. wants to bind China on agricultural products alone, the possibility is less and less.
This crackdown between China and the United States, at first was the United States' initiative, but now is by itself bypassed, had wanted to rely on tariffs to pressure China down the head, and instead pushed its own export market.
There is no advanced theory of China's strategy, that is, a sentence: If we don't rely on your family, we will not be afraid of you. No matter how much the United States shouts, the market just won't buy it, the beans are piled up, and farmers are having a hard time. Trump is really in trouble this time.
Looking back, if the United States does not adjust in time, it is likely that even the remaining market share will not beined, after all, the market is the most realistic, who is the right price, the attitude is honest, the supply is stable, who can take over.
This is not a short-term change, it is a complete turnaround.
Some people still have illusions that China is just "scaring" the United States this time, and will go back and place orders after a while, but now it seems that China has really changed direction this time.
From a strategic point of view, China no longer considers purchasing power as a "trade code", but as a part ofining industrial security, which means that who can stabilize supply in the future, who has a good attitude, who has the opportunity to share a piece.
This is not a simple "suspension of procurement", but a change in the trade plate, and if the United States is still like before, by pressure to change the market, it can only be said, the times have changed.
China and the United States, from the surface is a trade issue, behind the reality is a rule dispute, China this time not to buy, is an active choice, not an emotional reaction, and for Trump, it is no longer a thing that can be confused by the mouth.
Farmers' votes are not forever, and the trust of the market is not unconditional. If you don't respect the rules, don't expect others to continue to pay the bill.
This time, Trump wants to continue to fool, and I'm afraid he can't find the steps down again. The market is telling the truth, and whoever is reliable will do business with him. If the United States wants to make a turnaround this time, it must first recognize the reality, and then put down its shelves, otherwise, even the opportunity to make a turnaround will be slowly lost.