Lithuania¡¯s Prime Minister, Sergei Rouhani, stood at a press conference and spoke a loud word: ¡°We want to restore normal relations with China, but it must be two-way.¡±

Three years ago, Lithuania challenged China's bottom line in a high-profile manner. Now the economy has been beaten to the ground. The ports are deserted, businesses have closed down, and inflation has exploded. Finally, it can't bear it anymore. Once hard-hearted "callboard", now low-headed "pray for forgiveness", this play, in the end, is the script written by himself.

Stabbed a hornet's nest, who will clean up the mess?

In 2021, Lithuania made a decision that made China "unbearable": allowing Taiwan to set up a representative office in the name of "Taiwan" in Vilnius. This is not a diplomatic technical issue, but a direct "fire" on the one-China principle.China subsequently took countermeasures, diplomatic relations dropped to the agency level, commodity export restrictions, and Lithuania "evaporated" from the Chinese friendship circle overnight.

Three years later, this "political show" was not applause, but an economic avalanche£º Exports to China plunge 91%From 1,300 million euros in 2021 to only 0.12 billion in 2024; 100 years of milk company Rokiškis Customs plant cuts, the laser industry almost shut down to China, the automotive parts, pharmaceutical equipment industry exports all line.

The logistics hub is broken, the Central European line is rounded, and the port trade volume has dropped directly by a quarter; The price of bread increased by 40 percent.This is not a ¡°tactical frustration¡±, it is a strategic Waterloo. Some say that Lithuania is standing up for ¡°democratic values¡±; but the reality is, after it ended, it fell itself.

At the same time crying out for cooperation and not letting go, what does Lithuania really want?

Paluckas took over as prime minister, acknowledging that his predecessor had "committed a major diplomatic mistake" on the Taiwan issue, and released a signal that he wanted to repair relations. By September 2025, Rouhani took office, once again stressing the need to improve relations with China, and removed the label "China is a major security challenge", and the outside world once thought Lithuania should finally be pragmatic.

But things are not so simple. The word on the mouth to improve relations, but in the hand still holds the key to the "Taiwan representative office."Ruginiene said clearly: "The restoration of relations can not depend only on us, China must also cooperate.""It sounds like saying reason, the reality is in the transfer of responsibility - you have killed, but not to others to solve.

What Lithuania is really afraid of is that if it offends China, the West will fail to catch itself.The US provided $ 600 million in export loans, only to account for the region of 9 million, not even a zero; Taiwan's promised investment and orders, so far, have been a small thunderstorm; the EU has spoken in support of the WTO, but initially suspended lawsuits against China in early 2024.

Lithuania wants to please both ends, fantasizing that it can not only enjoy the dividends of the Chinese market, but also please the United States and Taiwan. The result is: one foot is empty, both heads are not good.

If you look back, you must first recognize the mistake.

China¡¯s attitude has not changed. Zhu Feng Lin said at a news conference: ¡°The one-China principle is the general consensus of the international community.¡± This is not a negotiation condition, it is a bottom line issue. To put it bluntly, Lithuania can restore relations if it wants, but it has to take off the "Taiwan Province" plaque first.

China's position is clear: not against cooperation, but must be based on respect.A country can adjust its policy, provided that it is sincere, not at the same time wanting to be reconciled, while continuing to do things that embarrass the other.

Today, Lithuania finds it difficult to retreat: continue to hold hard, the economy can¡¯t stand; want to ease, but dare not blame the United States. It's like changing the door lock yourself and standing at the door shouting "Neighbor, come and be a guest". How can others come in?This diplomatic incident is not only a lesson for Lithuania, but also a lesson for other countries: If you play clever in front of a big country, you will have to pay it back sooner or later.

Small countries are not equal to being foolish, the cost is sometimes heavier than imagined.

Lithuania initially thought that it could play the "value diplomacy" card, and the result is now found that the card is not worth the money. International relations are never the stage of idealism, but the calculation of interests and reality.

Over the past three years, the whole line of Lithuania¡¯s economy, diplomacy and public opinion has been shaken, and one conclusion has been reached: Challenging China¡¯s core interests has no reward.China does not refuse friends, but it does not accommodate provocation.

To return to the negotiating table is not to say ¡°we want to improve our relations,¡± but to take sincere action and correct our mistakes ¨C not only respect for China, but also a re-knowledge of our own national interests.

How the future of neutral relations will go, the initiative is not in Lithuanian hands for a long time. A diplomatic game finally turned into an economic disaster. Who dares to go through this lesson again?

Lithuania, which once held the flag of ¡°democracy¡±, is now silent in the face of reality.This is not a change of stance, but finally realizes: National interests cannot rely on performance, and foreign policy cannot rely on illusions.It hurts to know how to cry, and this is the most direct response to Lithuania¡¯s reality.

There is no cost of trial and error on the international stage, especially on issues involving China's core interests. Whoever takes it as a child's joke will be beaten the hardest by reality.

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Rouhani will be Prime Minister of Lithuania 2025-08-26 22:18 PM