Recently, French President Macron put a big satellite in an interview with CBS TV in the United States. He directly said that those frozen Russian assets cannot be confiscated. If this is done, international law will be broken, and the global financial system may be in chaos. As soon as this incident came out, there was a lot of discussion in the international community. After all, it has been three years since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West has frozen Russia's assets of about 300 billion US dollars. Some people have been clamoring to use them directly for Ukraine, but Macron This time it was equivalent to stepping on the brakes, and his attitude changed quite suddenly. He wasn't so conservative before, but now he suddenly emphasizes obeying the rules. There must be his abacus behind it.
After Russia began a special military operation in February 2022, the Western countries reacted especially quickly, and the G7 and the European Union joined forces to freeze the Russian central bank’s overseas assets, mostly in Belgium’s euro settlement system, totaling approximately $300 billion.
For example, at the G7 summit in 2024, they agreed to use the proceeds of these assets as guarantees to provide Ukraine with a $50 billion loan, which was not for nothing but borrowed, and the interest part had been transferred to Ukraine for about $4.3 billion to rebuild infrastructure and buy weapons. The European Commission recently introduced a new scheme to compensate Ukraine with the proceeds of assets, and then get war repayments from Russia again.
Macron's interview was recorded in Washington on September 21st, and spread two days after it was broadcast. He made it very clear to the host that western countries have to respect international rules, and even if the situation is special now, they can't confiscate the assets of central banks. This sounds simple, but it has far-reaching implications. He pointed out that if the West confiscates Russia today, other countries can confiscate the West tomorrow, and the credibility of international finance will be gone.
Think about the fact that global trade settlement is mostly based on the dollar and the euro, the European and American banks are the capital hub, if you think it is unreliable, who dares to store the money there? developing countries are now watching, especially those resource exporters, if the West opens this head, their foreign exchange reserves will probably move elsewhere, such as settling in the yuan or engaging in bilateral exchange of the national currency.
Why did Macron suddenly say that? In fact, the West has been struggling with this matter. On the one hand, Ukraine is burning money on the battlefield every day, and the pressure on Western aid is increasing. The United States and the European Union have already invested hundreds of billions and have to continue to receive blood transfusions. On the other hand, there is no legal basis for the direct confiscation of Russian assets. Russia has long said that if it is "blatant theft", they will take reciprocal measures, such as seizing the assets of Western enterprises in Russia, or challenging the status of the US dollar and the euro, and even withdrawing from some international financial systems. After all, Russia is a big energy country, and its oil and gas exports account for a large share of the world. It's really urgent. As soon as energy prices rise, the electricity and gas bills of European people will have to fly with them. Macron himself knows that the French economy is now sluggish, inflation has not been completely suppressed, and no one can bear another financial turmoil. On the surface, his statement is to safeguard international law, but in fact it is to protect the West's own rice bowl. The financial order established after World War II depends on trust. If he smashes his own signboard, who can afford the consequences?
A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry responded quickly, saying that confiscating assets would not cause chaos, but would lead to severe countermeasures. They have always emphasized that freezing is already the limit and confiscation is beyond the border. Russian officials have repeatedly said that this money is a sovereign asset, protected by international law, and that if the West moves, it would be like acknowledging itself as a robber.
In fact, Russia is already adjusting strategies, such as strengthening energy trade with Asian countries, settling natural gas in rubles and reducing dependence on the US dollar. As a result, the effect of Western sanctions has been reduced, instead of enlarging Russia's circle of allies. Some analysts believe that if the West really confiscated, Russia could sue to the international court, or counteract in other areas, such as restricting rare-earth exports or strengthening nuclear deterrence, although it is not about to fight immediately, but the global supply chain is messy.