It's quite chilling to say this. The Financial Times broke the news some time ago that an old document from the Russian military actually leaked, which pointed out that if it really started with NATO, the Russian military would take the lead in attacking Japan and South Korea. Strike first and launch a wave of precise strikes.
The documents are from 2008 to 2014, specially used for the training of officers in the Far East Military Region. There are 29 documents in total, listing more than 160 target points, mostly military and civilian facilities in Japan and South Korea. This is not just an armchair strategist, but also exposes Russia's fixated eye on the eastern border, for fear that NATO will circumvent the back door from Asia.
In recent years, Putin has taken Asia as a strategic center, tied to China's economy, and also pulled tens of thousands of troops from North Korea to help fight Ukraine, this document comes out, equals to mixing the battlefield in Europe and Asia-Pacific.
The Russian territory is so large, the Far East people are scarce, the defence would have worked hard, if NATO was to insert a foot from Japan to South Korea, it could hit back and forth. so this plan, the core is to prevent people, blocking the possible supply line of the US military.
The "horizontal upgrade" emphasized in the document means that Europe can burn fire to Asia when it fights, and Russia does not want to be passively beaten.
The channel of the leaked documents was the Western intelligence agencies, the specific source has not been stated, but the content of the iron plate nailed, the Russian side until now has not denied, only low-grade processing.
At the time, the Russian military anticipated that NATO’s east expansion would turn the east into a soft ribbon, with so many U.S. troops stationed in Japan and South Korea that the aircraft carrier battle group would be able to hit Siberia once it was launched. In the document, the training focus was on simulating the strike operation against Japan and South Korea, with Kh-101 cruise missiles mainly, with a high target rate, suitable for hitting key nodes.
Because it feels that South Korea is not a neutral country, but a bridgehead for NATO, with the U.S. military there with thousands of aircraft, dozens of warships, and increasingly tight intelligence sharing mechanisms.
At that time in 2014, Russia had just annexed Crimea, and the Ukrainian crisis was serious, the military accelerated the improvement of this plan, with the aim of paralyzing the logistics of Japan and South Korea when the main battlefield in Europe was opened.
As a result, the document has been hidden for a decade, and once it has been exposed, it is equivalent to ringing the alarm bell on the globe.Russia’s logic is simple: if you want to play the globe in NATO, I must focus on Russia, don’t let Asia become your backyard.
Defense anxiety behind the list of targets
Of the 160 targets listed in this document, more than half are military, and the rest are all civilian infrastructure, which is the most eye-catching.
On the other side of Japan, there are 82 air bases, Okinawa communication centers, Hokkaido radar stations, and nuclear power stations and shutdown tunnels in the East Sea. In South Korea, Busan port, Usan air base, Pyeongchang naval facilities, Pyeongchang steel plant, Busan chemical plant, all are to the throat.
Russia's calculator is fine, first strike these, you can cut off the route of the U.S. troops from Asia, missiles one shot, bridges collapsed, ports paralyzed, the troops must not be mobilized. in the document also mentioned the test of the Japanese Korean air defense system operation, in 2014 two bombers flew around, forced the Japanese Korean warplanes to emergency take off, is this not a real battle preview?
To be honest, Russia is so arranged, the root is in its defense anxiety about the Far East. The area is widely populated, the population is only a few million, the military force is scattered, if NATO is around the Pacific, the supply line is long, Russia can not withstand. So the project emphasizes "preventing the reunification of troops", meaning to disrupt the rhythm, so that the US-Japan-Korea alliance can not form a joint force.
This list is not only a military consideration, but also has a smell of economic destruction. nuclear power plants, chemical plants, steel plants, these, as soon as they hit people's livelihoods, the Russian military estimate is to want to through this way, pushing Japan and Korea in the beginning of the war in the mess, indirectly dragging the United States' hands and feet.
The document is dated from 2013 to 2014. At that time, Russia's economy depended on oil for food and its military expenditure was tight, but it invested heavily in the east. It built a new missile base and upgraded the Pacific Fleet, just to guard against this move.
Now that Putin came to power, the military reform has become more thorough, the Far East Military Region has been expanded, and the S-400 air defense system has been rolled out. This document is equal to new wine in old bottles, and the strategy has not changed. Experts say that this exposes Russia's "asymmetric thinking". It knows that it has to play flank raids if it has no chance to confront NATO.
Japan, South Korea, had thought that Russia's threat was small, now, the nuclear power plants are on the list, the people are sure to panic. Russia's hand, play a little rough, but from its perspective, is a helpless move of self-defense. After all, NATO has been expanding in the East, Finland Sweden has come in, Russia's east is not ready, is equivalent to fighting the war.
NATO Allies’ Emergency Patches and Regional Chain Response
After this incident, international public opinion fried the pot, and the BBC special program pointed to Russian war crimes. Macron of France said it was a hostile act at the Elysee Palace, Japanese people protested on the streets, and Korean students held placards in Gwanghwamun Square. Russia didn't reply, but communicated with the US through the hotline and denied the timeliness of the document, but who believed it?
Expert William Albuquer said directly, the European Asian battlefield unified baby, 12 thousand North Korean troops to the war in Ukraine, is the iron certificate. Russia's calculation is, pulling North Korea as the ashes, in exchange for the eastern buffers, now documents exposed, in turn let the Japanese Korean warning bell, military spending budget Japan added to GDP 2%, South Korea followed.
This patch hit quickly, but the root in NATO's east expansion, Russia feels forced to the corner of the wall, only to make this trick. The Asia-Pacific pattern, it was in the sword, the Chinese-Russian trade as a stabilizer, the first quarter of soybean imports and exports increased by 9%, but the military friction heated, the Russian army near the four northern islands of Japan practical bombardment, the South Korean airport in Incheon US aid aircraft networked.
NATO's "solid Pacific" exercises, Japanese naval fleet ranks, artillery to sea targets, water columns to the sky, this is not only a show muscle, but also a response to Russia. Russia's "West 2025" exercises, Su-57 low flight, September 15 U.S. observers lifted the telescope record, all are sharp relative.
After the leakage of documents, the global military trade explosion, the Lockheed Martin order explosion shelf, the Japanese Congress debate the additional budget, the South Korean dozen steel welding sound continues.This chain reaction, in the short term, is a military power race, in the long term, Asia-Pacific high-risk zone, China's Foreign Ministry reaffirms neutrality, promotes Shanghai cooperation dialogue, but who knows the next step?
Deep Game and Global Mirror Image of Far East Chess Game
This Russian document, looking at it now, is a mirror image of the chess game in the Far East. Putin regards Asia as an extension of the war in Ukraine, embraces China economically, and drags North Korea into the water militarily, but NATO does not let it do what it wants.
The strike logic in the document exposes Russia's resource bottleneck. Although the Far East has strong military strength, its logistics is weak. The missile inventory relies on imported components, and China is the key supplier. This game is deep. Russia wants to use the plan to deter and tell NATO not to play with fire, but after it is leaked, it makes its opponents more united.
Russia is stuck between Eurasia, in history consistently defending two lines of battle, Napoleon Hitler has planted here, now NATO expansion to the east, it can only preempt. documents do not refer to nuclear upgrading, but conventional strike nuclear power plants, this risk global, the International Atomic Energy Agency has to watch closely.
Putin's strategy, by using asymmetric means to supplement the shortboard, Kh-101 missiles in Ukraine used badly, but for Japan's South Korea's forecast, high precision requirements, exposed technical shortcomings. Japan's South Korea, from passive defense to proactive, arms sales contract signing not stopped, Japan inspected ports, South Korea's president ordered to expand the port.
There is no winner in this game. Russia's anxiety, NATO's expansion, and Asia-Pacific tension are superimposed layer by layer, like dominoes, and they are all pushed down. In the long run, this document is tantamount to a wake-up call, reminding countries not to separate Europe and Asia-Pacific. Alburke's words are grounded, Asia and Europe are conjoined, and conflicts are all moving in one place.