On September 5th, Venezuelan President Maduro personally wrote a letter, with the original intention of easing the increasingly tense situation between the two countries, and offered to have a direct dialogue with US representatives. However, this letter not only failed to get a response from the United States, but was "torn apart" by the Trump administration on the spot. Then, the US military's actions in the Caribbean further heated up.
This "Caribbean crisis" led by the United States, Have you reached an irreversible point?Why doesn't Trump give Maduro some room? Is the frequent deployment of U.S. troops in the Caribbean for drugs or oil?
The U.S. Naval Academy reports that the deployment of U.S. forces is not easy, as the destroyer "Stockdale" meets with "Jason Dunham" and "Gravely" at the port of Panama. Three Ali Burke-class Zeus Shield destroyers have been stationed in the Caribbean.
In addition, the "Sulphur Island" two-way attack vessel, "San Antonio" landing vessel, cruiser "Ili Lake" and eight water ships including the "Sulphur Island" two-way reserve group has also been completed, and at least one attack nuclear submarine is active in the dark.
In the air, the U.S. military has also deployed 10 F-35B invisible fighters, five of which are deployed in Puerto Rico, specifically aimed at Venezuela's Su-30 and F-16 fighters.
Synchronized with the actions of the US military is the "anti-drug" reason publicized by the Trump administration. He claimed that this series of military deployments was aimed at cracking down on Latin American drug cartels, especially criminal organizations such as Venezuela's "Aragua Train".
But Maduro made it clear in the letter that Colombia is the source of drugs, with only 5% of the drugs passing through Venezuela and all being destroyed at the border. Even Colombian foreign ministers have publicly questioned the US military’s so-called “drug fighting” as an excuse, essentially disrupting regional peace.
At the beginning of September, U.S. troops opened fire in international waters and killed 11 “suspects” without any trial or warning procedures at all. Defense Minister Lopez said in anger that this was equivalent to a “unproclaimed war on Venezuela.”
Maduro isn't sitting still. In addition to submitting the letter of peace, he also urgently launched the "Independence 200 Plan", deploying 284 military fronts nationwide and mobilizing 8.2 million people to join militia organizations. In the border area with Colombia, more than 15,000 soldiers were directly deployed to prevent serious emergencies.
While these forces appear to be “man-sea-dominant” in the face of modern warfare, for the United States, once it really moves, it could face a very costly people’s war. From Trump’s perspective, all this is not just “drug-hunting”. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves that have been explored, and even if oil quality is overweight, U.S. energy enterprises have long been lacking.
If the United States can control Venezuela’s oil, coupled with its own shale oil advantage, it can not only control international oil prices, but also take the lead in the game with OPEC. Maduro's government insists on nationalization of oil and refuses to hand over resources to foreign capitalThis is an unacceptable red line for the United States.
The Trump administration is clear that diplomatic and economic sanctions alone can no longer shake the Maduro regime. In recent years, the South American political map has clearly shifted to the left, with Brazil, Peru and other countries taking power in succession by the left. American traditional influence in Latin America is being weakened, and “Monroeism” is facing serious challenges.
If Venezuela's regime can be changed through military pressure, it will not only gain resource benefits, but also "kill chickens and monkeys" and deter the whole of South America. However, things didn't go in the direction expected by the White House. Maduro has not been deterred, but is actively seeking foreign aid.The intervention of China and Russia is gradually changing the balance of regional power.
China not only provided billions of dollars in financial support to Venezuela through "oil-for-loans", but also delivered a floating oil production facility worth $1 billion in September to help Venezuela increase its crude oil production capacity.
More interestingly, the Chinese hospital ship Silk Road Arch also plans to cross the U.S. military blockade line to provide humanitarian medical assistance to Venezuela.This way of “non-military intervention” not only avoided sanctions, but also won the international public opinion.
Russia is not on the sidelines. Despite the conflict in Ukraine, the country has signed the Strategic Partnership and Cooperation Treaty, which provides defense equipment to Venezuela, including the S-300 air defense system.More notably, the Venezuelan military, when showing its equipment, intentionally showed a combination of Chinese drones and Russian rifles, showing its diverse national defense route has been shaped.
On the one hand, the U.S. military has been under heavy military pressure; on the other hand, Chinese-Russian support makes it difficult for the Trump administration to move lightly. The Pentagon even issued orders for “maximum restraint” inside, clearly stating that unauthorized fires should not be actively opened. This shows that even if the U.S. highest rank is tough in the mouth, the real determination to do so may not be so firm.
Even more headache to Trump is that the "back yard" of the United States has begun to burn. Colombian President Petro has warned that if U.S. troops invade Venezuela, the whole of Latin America will become a “second Syria.”
Mexico, Cuba and other countries have also voiced their support for Maduro, and the Latin Communist Party and the Bolivarian Alliance have jointly condemned U.S. military threats.
In the face of domestic diplomatic difficulties, Trump still chose a tough gesture. Not only did he refuse to respond to Maduro's letter of reconciliation, but he also highlighted on social media the achievements of "sinking drug traffickers' ships", trying to grab conservative voters and create an image of a "hard president" for himself.
This is Trump’s usual “extreme pressure” strategy, similar to a trade war against China. But Venezuela is not a soft persimmon. Although Maduro has repeatedly sought peace, he has never given in on the issue of sovereignty and resources.He showed a peaceful gesture externally, but he was stepping up combat readiness internally. He even took the initiative to expose the "false flag operation" planned by the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, cutting off the possibility of the United States going to war under the pretext of the United States.
The U.S. wants Venezuela to surrender in this way through “frontal talks,” and it may be difficult in the short term.Under the current situation, Trump wants to force the Maduro regime to fall through limited military pressure, but does not dare to really start a war.
Once the war has broken out, it will not only cause international oil prices to rise dramatically, but it could also trigger a double rebound in U.S. domestic public opinion and finance.In addition, the united opposition of Latin American countries, as well as China-Russia’s strategic support, have made it difficult for the U.S. to “go alone” as it used to be.
From the timeline point of view, every node since September has intensified the tension: Maduro submitted the letter on September 5, the letter was delivered on September 6, and the US military sank the Venezuelan ship again on September 19U.S. military aircraft are fully concentrated, regional countries are gradually expressing opposition, and the whole incident is developing in the direction of "extreme confrontation".
This game around Venezuela is not only a contradiction between the two countries, but also a head-on collision between the emerging multipolar world and the old American hegemony. The storm in the Caribbean is no longer as simple as a simple military exercise or a diplomatic game, but it is becoming the vane of the new global geopolitical pattern.
Maduro's letter of reconciliation was torn apart, the U.S. military was under pressure, and Trump, in the name of "drug-seeking", attempted oil resources and regional dominance, China's Russian intervention complicated and changed the situation. Though the darkness of the war has not yet dispersed, the U.S. did not dare to take easy action. This was not only a crisis about Venezuela, but a test of the world pattern.
Source of information:
[1] Trump releases video mocking Venezuelan militia Global Times
Venezuela confirms Maduro wrote to Trump