Source: China News Weekly
In September, the security pattern in the Middle East seems to have been substantially rewritten.
In the Gaza Strip's largest urban center, "apocalyptic scenes" are unfolding. Since mid-September, Israeli infantry, tanks and artillery, backed by the air force, have "pinched" downtown Gaza from two directions, forcing hundreds of thousands of residents to flee.
On September 21, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Portugal officially recognized the State of Palestine; the following day, France, Monaco, Belgium, Luxembourg, Malta and Andorra also officially recognized the State of Palestine.
According to U.S. media reports, Trump has recently proposed to the leaders of relevant countries a plan for peace and post-war governance in Gaza, with leaders and senior officials from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and other countries attending the relevant meetings.
Previously, after the Israeli air raid on a residential house in Doha, the capital of Qatar, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, hereinafter referred to as the "GCC") took the lead in convening an emergency summit, and all member states showed an attitude of interdependence. The joint statement issued after the summit showed that the GCC decided to activate the collective defense mechanism and authorized its joint military command to "take necessary measures" to activate the common defense system and strengthen the deterrent force in the Gulf. This marks the most serious attempt at security integration in the Middle East in decades: the Gulf countries are ready to unite to build an independent defense system, instead of blindly relying on external protection.
The Third Collective Sword.
In early September, the Israeli Air Force suddenly spread the war to the Gulf state of Qatar, using 15 F-35I fighter jets to assault a residential building in Doha, claiming the target was Hamas negotiating representatives.
It was the first time in recent years in the conflict in Pakistan, when Israel attacked the territory of an Arab state in the Gulf, seriously violating Qatar’s sovereignty. Qatar Emir (Head of State) Tamim strongly condemned the attack, calling it a “crazy and vile attack on Qatar’s sovereignty”.
Qatar has always been an important mediator in mediating the ceasefire in Gaza, and this air strike has undoubtedly dealt a heavy blow to the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. After the air strike, the Gulf Arab countries quickly showed an unprecedented gesture of unity.
At the emergency summit, the Gulf nations strongly condemned Israel, but also pointed to the inaction of their traditional ally, the United States.The summit stated that while it did not directly announce economic or diplomatic retaliation against Israel, such as stopping the normalization process between Arab nations and Israel, the regional public opinion has focused on a sharp question: Is the U.S.-led “safety umbrella” still reliable?
According to a defence agreement reached in 2000, the Association has actually established the principle that “an attack on one member is considered as an attack on all members.” This clause of collective defence has only been used twice so far, namely during the Gulf War in 1991 and during the 2011 “Arab Spring” in Bahrain.
There are signs that some Arab countries are beginning to think about the possibility of getting rid of reliance on U.S. security. According to media disclosures, some intelligence reports have that the U.S. has been informed in advance of the Israeli air strike in Doha, but the default action has taken place, and the U.S. air defense system at Udeed Air Force Base in Qatar has also "been silent" at the time of the incident. Washington's disregard and shaking of allied security concerns have forced the Gulf countries to find a different way.
The three Gulf countries "hold a group"
In this crisis, the roles of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, as regional powers, have undergone subtle and profound changes. The first is Saudi Arabia. As the "leader" of the GCC, Saudi Arabia has always relied on the U.S. security umbrella and once intended to normalize historic relations with Israel under the mediation of the United States. But after the war in Gaza broke out, Saudi Arabia had to suspend its contact with Israel. Now that Doha, the capital of Qatar, has been attacked, Saudi Arabia has realized that the current Israeli government's tough stance on the Palestinian issue is threatening regional stability. Under such circumstances, talking about reconciliation is tantamount to asking for fish. Therefore, Saudi Arabia quickly adjusted its position, turned its energy to regional unity, and resolutely responded to Israel's rash actions.
Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman has recently changed his previous cautious gesture, communicating intensively with leaders of countries such as Qatar and Egypt to negotiate a new regional security framework. Saudi Arabia isly not only supporting Qatar's sovereign position at the Emergency Summit of the United Nations, but also proposing to accelerate the establishment of regional air and missile defense networks to counter the violations of any force outside the territory. It can be said that Saudi Arabia is shifting from "seeking American security" to "leading Arab self-defense", and the role shift is clear.
The United Arab Emirates, one of the signatories of the 2020 Abraham Agreement, has been seen as a landmark for the Arab world’s easing winds on Israeli policy. However, Israel’s assault on Qatar has embarrassed and angered the United Arab Emirates. As the first Gulf countries to establish relations with Israel, the UAE had assumed that this relationship would bring security dividends, at least Israel would take care of each other’s friendly actions without compromising regional security. But the airstrike undoubtedly shattered that confidence. As the UAE Foreign Ministry stated, the actions caused “open and cowardly destruction” to regional security.
The UAE was forced to reassess the direction of its relations with Israel. On the one hand, it froze some security cooperation projects with Israel, such as intelligence exchange and military procurement. On the other hand, it stepped up its position coordination with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, emphasizing that security cooperation within the Gulf takes precedence over relations with Israel. It is foreseeable that the UAE will tend to diversify its security partners, such as strengthening defense cooperation with other major powers to reduce its single-path dependence on the United States and Israel. The UAE has returned to the "Arab camp" from an "US-Israel ally", and the change in attitude is intriguing.
And finally, Qatar. This small Middle Eastern country, once isolated by its Gulf brothers, has become the focus of uniting the Arab world because of the air strikes. From 2017 to 2021, Qatar was deeply involved in severing diplomatic relations with neighboring countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. However, in the face of Israel's volley, the Gulf countries quickly put aside their bad blood and stood with Qatar.
Qatar has always pursued independent diplomacy and actively mediated regional conflicts. It is one of the few communication channels between Hamas and Israel. Israel's air strike this time reflects its dissatisfaction with Qatar's position to some extent, and even regards it as a thorn in its side. However, this behavior backfired. Qatar not only did not flinch under pressure, but successfully changed from "isolated" to "united", and its regional influence and discourse power were enhanced. Driven by Qatar, the launch of the joint defense mechanism by the GCC is one of the concrete achievements.
Egypt forced to adjust its strategic direction
As the most populous country in the Arab world and a traditional military power, Egypt’s shift in attitude in this turmoil is also noteworthy.Since the 1979 peace agreement with Israel, the Egyptian government has been more cautious about Israel in public.
At the emergency summit of the GCC, Egyptian President Sisi uncharacteristically publicly and strongly described Israel as an "enemy." This is the first time since he took office in 2014 that he has been so blunt in accusing Israel. Sisi warned that Israel's current policies are "eroding the chances of any new peace agreement and may even abort the existing peace treaty". In particular, he mentioned that if Israel continues to attempt to forcibly expel Palestinians from their homes and move to neighboring countries, it will seriously threaten Egypt's national security.
In fact, two years since this round of Gaza conflict broke out, Egypt has been worried that Israel intends to take advantage of the conflict to push a large number of Gaza refugees into the Sinai Peninsula and shift the problem to Egypt in disguise. Now the Israeli leadership has openly stated that it will not hesitate to eliminate Hamas personnel in a third country "no matter where they hide", which makes Cairo even more alert. There are also Hamas political offices and personnel activities in Egypt. Whether Israel will take risks and launch attacks in Egypt will make Egypt feel that its own security is directly threatened.
In addition to concerns about Israel’s potential entry into Egypt and the continued cross-border fight against Hamas, the Gaza battlefield showed a clear “first to settle-then take over” trend, which also left Egypt unhappy. Israel announced ground cleansing in Gaza City and opened a 48-hour temporary evacuation passage on the Route of Sarajevo, demanding the entire evacuation of about a million inhabitants in the north. At the same time, Israel issued a signal of “a cease-fire and a suspended military operation” that the essence of the evacuation of the population in Egypt was to accelerate the path of “forced relocation-military occupation-re-government.” In other words, even with a huge diplomatic cost, Israel also pushed for the transformation of Cairo into
In the international community, Israel’s practices have also been questioned. The UN Independent Investigation Committee recently stated that there were “reasonable reasons” to determine that Israel violated the four acts listed in the Genocide Convention in Gaza: mass murder, serious physical and psychological injury, the imposition of living conditions sufficient to destroy ethnic groups, and the prevention of childbirth. The relevant report also pointed out that Israel’s upper level had “extinction intentions”, evidence including cutting off hydropower, blocking access to baby milk, attacks on white-flaged civilians and medical journalists, etc. Israel and its allies strongly deny it, but as military advances and “de-occupation” overlap, “security occupation” has become a reality. This not only accelerates Israel’s
In the face of the new situation, Egypt quickly adjusted its strategy, instead of actively planning the regional collective security framework. Egypt had already proposed the idea of establishing an “Arab Alliance Army” a few years ago, but was left behind due to differences between the parties. This time at the Summit in the Sea, Sisi again proposed the establishment of an “Arab Version of NATO” with headquarters in Cairo, hoping to unite the military forces of the Arab and even Islamic States to jointly respond to “new threats” to the region such as Israel.
This idea has been positively echoed by some important countries in the region. The starting points of different countries are not completely the same. For example, Iran takes the opportunity to call for an anti-American and anti-Israeli front, while Turkey hopes to regain its influence in regional security affairs. But overall, Egypt's change in position marks an important signal: even countries that have lived in peace with Israel for decades now have to re-examine the real threat posed by Israel and adjust their strategic direction accordingly.
The New Security Order in the Middle East
The proposal to form a joint defense alliance adopted at the emergency summit of the GCC may become the starting point of the most significant security architecture transformation in the Middle East in decades. For Arab countries, the desire to independently establish a collective security mechanism has a long history: from the joint defense treaty during the Cold War in the 20th century to the "Middle East Strategic Alliance" (commonly known as the "Arab version of NATO") initiated by the United States in recent years, similar ideas have been put forward several times but have never been implemented. On the one hand, there have always been many differences within Arab countries, and their security concerns have different emphasis; On the other hand, the intervention and game of major powers also make it difficult for regional countries to truly unite independently. The direct reason for this unprecedented unity in the Arab world is that Israel's adventurous actions have touched the bottom line of almost all countries in the region. Whether it is the Gulf monarchies, Egypt in North Africa, or even countries that have tried to improve relations with Israel in recent years, they now feel that the real threat is close at hand.
Recent actions by the hard-right government led by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu have increasingly made Arab nations realize that the previous hopes of a compromise-by-peace exchange may not work. At the same time, the role of the United States in this series of events has made allies more frightened, not only did Israel not stop its actions against Qatar in advance, but there was also a lack of strong intervention and condemnation.
First, there is still a strategic disagreement of interests within Arab and Islamic countries: some countries have seen Iran as a major threat in the past, and now more countries see Israel as a more pressing security challenge, and the two perceptions are not necessarily fully compatible. For example, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have recently eased their relations with Iran, it does not mean that Iran is completely reassured; and Iran has its own agenda while supporting the anti-Israel alliance.
Second, the attitude of Western countries such as the U.S. is also a concern. The U.S. is unlikely to sit and see its long-standing Middle East security system replaced by a new coalition that is not under its control, and it is likely that the Arab countries will break out of the process of forming an independent defence alliance, or put political and economic pressure on the coalition to divide it. Some Gulf nations, which rely heavily on U.S. weapons and training, are more likely to break up with the U.S.
Again, the leadership struggle within the alliance also needs to be balanced: Egypt and Saudi Arabia as regional powers want to dominate security affairs, while other small and medium-sized countries fear their voices will be flooded.
Despite the difficulties, the trend of developing an autonomous security architecture in the Middle East is becoming increasingly evident today. A sudden airstrike in Doha is like the alarm clock of the old order. When the US promise no longer reassures allies, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE have no choice but to build their own "safe roof". Currently, whether the Middle East version of "NATO" will really be born still needs time to be tested, but it can be sure that the era of U.S. security domination in the Middle East is facing unprecedented challenges, and a new security order belonging to the Middle East region has come to fruition.
(Chairman of the Executive Director of the Institute of Middle East Research at Beijing University's HSBC Business School)