Three Russian fighter jets broke into Estonia’s airspace, Putin just watched the nuclear exercises, and NATO hurried to jump – this is really a big deal.
Something happened a few days ago. Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets broke into Estonian airspace and stayed for 12 minutes. Estonia is a member of NATO, which can stab a hornet's nest. Estonia immediately called the Russian ambassador to scold him, and asked NATO to activate Article 4 to discuss what to do together.
NATO also quickly sent aircraft to intercept, and said next week to meet specifically to discuss the matter.
It looks small, but it’s dangerous, because just a few days ago, when Putin personally watched the “West 2025” military exercise, the most terrifying part of the exercise was simulating tactical nuclear strikes — to speak of the practice of fighting with small nuclear bombs.
What about airspace infringement?
Simply put, three Russian fighter jets flew into Estonia’s airspace for 12 minutes. Estonia didn’t do it, saying it was a provocation. Russia said it wasn’t, saying the aircraft was flying to Kaliningrad as planned, fully in compliance with the rules.
You may want to ask, why is this so serious? Because Estonia is a member of NATO. According to NATO rules, hitting one member state is equal to hitting all member states. So this is not a matter between Russia and Estonia, but a matter between Russia and NATO as a whole.
What are nuclear exercises doing?
What's even more frightening is the military exercise that Russia just finished. The most striking thing about this exercise is the practice of using "tactical nuclear weapons". Tactical nuclear weapons are small-yield nuclear bombs. They can not destroy cities like strategic nuclear weapons, but they are still nuclear weapons!
Koffler, a former U.S. intelligence official, said that Putin and the Russian General Staff now regard nuclear weapons not only as deterrent tools, but also as usable combat tools. This is scary, because it means that they are really thinking about when and under what circumstances they can use nuclear weapons.
Just like the crisis of 1983.
There was a similar crisis in history.In 1983, NATO carried out the "excellent shooter" exercise, the Soviet Union thought it was a cover for NATO to launch a nuclear attack, almost preventing a nuclear war.
Fortunately, there was a Soviet officer in Petrov's service at the time, and the surveillance system showed that the American missile hit, and he judged that it was a system failure, and did not report, which prevented a nuclear war.
The situation is similar to the situation at the time: the two sides lack confidence and are guessing what each other wants to do. Russia feels that NATO wants to expand east, and NATO feels that Russia wants to move west. Both sides are boosting troops at the border, conducting exercises, and if they are not careful, they can be misjudged.
Is the nuclear button really almost pressed?
To be honest, no one knows if Putin will press the nuclear button, but there are a few clear facts:
In the past, nuclear weapons were just deterrence, and now they are publicly discussing the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons in conventional wars.
Second, there are almost no direct communication channels between Russia and NATO. After the war in Ukraine, many hotline calls are out of service. This means that if something goes wrong, there is no chance to make a phone call to clarify.
Third, both sides have the worst intentions.NATO increases troops in the Eastern Wing and Russia deployes nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad.This atmosphere of preparation for war with each other is dangerous in itself.
Covler warned that “the possibility of misjudgment and catastrophic consequences is entirely present” and that “this is not an alarm, but a reasonable judgment based on the current situation.”
NATO will meet next week to discuss how to respond, while Russia continues to increase its troops in Kaliningrad.The global number of nuclear warheads now exceeds 1,30,000, an 8 percent increase from five years ago.
The most troubling thing is that now there are various security mechanisms to prevent misjudgment, unlike during the Cold War. Today it may be because of a wrong warning, an airspace infringement, a wrong judgment.
To be honest, everyone hopes that this is just an illusion, but the current situation, really nobody dares to let go.