Preliminary
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its fourth year. Both sides were tired.A ceasefire is early and late.
But if the war really stopped, it would not cause a bigger “earthquake.”
After all, the Russia-Ukraine war is not only a local conflict between Russia and Ukraine;It was also a dramatic shock in the global geopolitical landscape after the end of the Cold War.
The war is like a giant stone thrown into the surface of a quiet lake, which is spreading to many corners of the world, once the war is over, The restructuring of international forces could trigger a chain reaction.
The crisis in Ukraine is approaching.
The Russian-Ukrainian war lasted so long that Ukraine resisted hard with military aid from the West. But the cost is heavy.
About 30% of the territory has been severely damaged, the population has lost more than 10 million, and the economy has shrunk by nearly one third.
Although the Ukrainian government has vowed to "regain all territory," the reality is that if the war ends with a compromise agreement,Ukraine may face the risk of substantial dismemberment of its sovereignty.
First, Ukraine’s survival is heavily dependent on external aid, with U.S. and European military support accounting for more than 80 percent of Ukrainian military equipment, but there has been “assistance fatigue” inside the West.
If the West reduces its investment after the war, Ukraine will be unable to maintain its national defense system. The issue of belonging to the eastern Donbass region or Crimea could become a permanent crack.
Second, the political ecological war in Ukraine could be caught up in chaosUltra-nationalist forces and corruption have not been eradicated. If post-war reconstruction fails, the sense of national identity may be further disintegrated.
Historical experience has shown that “fragile countries” after external intervention often find it difficult to avoid split fates, such as Kosovo after the disintegration of Yugoslavia.
If Ukraine fails to achieve internal integration after the war,The word “exile” is not dangerous.
Israel's extinction looms
The Russia-Ukraine war has indirectly changed the pattern of the Middle East. Western sanctions against Russia have led to fluctuations in energy prices and weakened the United States' control over the Middle East.
Russia's alliance with Iran and Syria took the opportunity to strengthen, In this context, the security environment in Israel is deteriorating.
On the one hand, the Iranian nuclear issue is moving to a critical point.If Iran possesses nuclear weapons, Israel’s “regional monopoly nuclear deterrence” will be broken and its survival directly threatened.
On the other hand, the Palestinian issue continues to ferment. Since 2023, the conflict in the West Bank has escalated, Hamas, Hezbollah and other organizations have launched frequent attacks, and Israel's domestic political polarization has intensified.
If the strategic focus of the United States shifts after the end of the Russia-Ukraine war,Israel may lose critical external support.
Despite the fact that Israel relied on U.S. aid in several Middle East wars, the U.S. will shrink in the future.
Israel alone faces the siege of the Iranian camp. Or it will face the most severe test of survival since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1948.
Unrest on the Korean Peninsula
North Korea has long relied on China-Russia’s “strategic barrier” and nuclear deterrence to maintain regime stability. But the Russian war could break that balance.
The war consumed Russia's military and economic resources and weakened its ability to shelter North Korea.
Western sanctions against Russia have forced North Korea to move closer to China.Increased the sensitivity of the situation on the peninsula.
Once the Russian-Ukrainian war is over, the U.S. may be spending more military resources in the Asia-Pacific, the Korean Peninsula, or becoming a new hotspot.
North Korea has frequently tested missiles in recent years, aiming at consolidating the strategy of "exchanging toughness for security". But this move could trigger U.S. and Japanese military counter-reaction.
If North Korea misjudges the situation,The risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula will rise sharply, while the domestic economy is on the verge of collapse, the food crisis continues for years, and the stability of the regime relies heavily on external support.
If relations with China and North Korea fluctuate due to international pressure, the Kim regime could face a double blow from internal unrest and external interference, and isolated regimes are often the most vulnerable in the game of great powers.
Belarus may be "Ukrainized" by the West
Belarus is Russia’s ally.But its President Lukashenko regime was in a delicate position during the Russian-Ukrainian war.
On the one hand, Belarus provided logistical support to the Russian military and was severely sanctioned by the West, on the other hand, domestic opposition forces were not completely eliminated after the 2020 election, and there is a pro-European sentiment in society.
When the Russian War ended, Belarus could become the next target for Western “democratic exports.”
Belarus has outstanding geostrategic valueIt is a buffer between Russia and NATO, and if the West does it, it could directly threaten Moscow’s security.
In 2022, Poland had deployed heavy troops on the border with Belarus, and NATO also held several targeted military exercises.
If Lukashenko’s regime collapses due to economic difficulties or popular protests,Belarus may repeat the scene of the 2014 Ukrainian Square Revolution and fall into civil war and division.
Russia will never sit idly by and watch its allies fall to the West, when a new round of proxy wars may break out in Eastern Europe.
conclusion
The end of the Russo-Ukrainian war is not the end of the crisis; But the beginning of the geopolitical dominoes falling.
It is essentially the result of the interplay between the game of great powers and regional contradictions.In the context of the decline of the unipolar order, the survival strategies of small countries need to be more flexible.
For China, these turmoil warns us that we must adhere to “strategic autonomy” and avoid engaging in agent wars.At the same time, multilateralism promotes conflict resolution.
The future of the world depends on building an inclusive security framework, not a force-dominated zero-sum game.
The tragedy of Ukraine today. It will be repeated tomorrow or elsewhere.