Preliminary
If this is true, then Putin would have had to borrow money for a long time to go to war, but unfortunately it's just a legend, in fact, the Russian military spending is probably less than $600 million a day, but the "account" of this war is far more than a matter of money.
Military sources, equipment, morality, international pressure ... these invisible "hidden costs" are the pressure that Putin really has to sustain, the war is going to the third year, the frontline is still sewing, the back has begun to breathe, then the question comes: how long can this war Russia continue?
From “Speed” to “Speed”.
In February 2022, Russia launched the so-called "special military operation", which was originally a "lightning war" calculator, wanted to take a breath of Kiev, the Ukrainian government to the pot, the result of reality, more than a month after the Russian troops were forced to evacuate from Kiev, turned their heads at Donbas, a local war was thus delayed into a total consumption war.
By 2023, Ukraine launched a counter-offensive with the aid of the West, with Leopard 2 tanks and Shadow of the Storm missiles, but there was no imaginary breakthrough on the frontline. The Russian army, with the help of the "Surovikin Defense Line", hardened the Ukrainian army back, and the war entered the stage of "no one can push".
Entering the war in 2025 upgraded to a science and technology race, drones became the main protagonist of the battlefield, each month alone drone losses will be more than 20,000 units, play like the game endless cleansing, but this is not a game, each is real gold and silver crushed out.
Afzheyevka's "victory" gave the Russian army a little face, but this breakthrough is almost insignificant than the whole situation of the war.
The money hasn't been burned out, and people are almost exhausted? War is not simply a matter of settling accounts
To start with the rumor of “burning $20 billion a day,” the reality is that Russia’s defense budget for 2025 is 13.5 trillion rubles, which is approximately $145 billion, on average $5.83 billion a day, although this number is scary enough, but ten times less than the legendary price.
However, this money was indeed not wasted. The Russian army has improved the welfare of soldiers. Contract soldiers can get 5.2 million rubles a year, which is four times the per capita income in Moscow. Military factories have not rested either. In 2024, 1,400 tanks will be lost, and as a result, there will be 100 more new and renovated tanks. Old bombs are not wasted, and they are converted into gliding bombs. It is planned to produce 70,000 bombs in 2025.
It seems that there is no shortage of soldiers and equipment, but here comes the question: How long can people last? According to CSIS data, the Russian army suffered nearly 1 million casualties in three years, and the Ukrainian army also suffered 400,000 casualties. This is not an ordinary "war damage", it is a "population deficit" that cannot be made up for decades.
Not to mention that there are already 670,000 women in the army on the Ukrainian side, and even the “Mother-Girl Party” is on the battlefield. while Russia, although the military force is three times the Ukrainian army, but behind this number is the younger target and more and more frequent recruitment advertisements. On the other hand, the old soldiers are struggling, while the new soldiers are digging the pit, Putin wants to keep up, must pray the young people do not fear death.
Sanctions didn’t crush Russia, but they dropped a war.
In the third year of the war, everyone saw that the Western sanctions did not cause Russia to collapse, but instead allowed it to practice its anti-attack practice.GDP grew by 3.6 percent in 2023, higher than many countries relying on peaceful development, and in 2022 it was expected to fall by 11 percent, and the result fell by only 2.2 percent, which is not a miracle, but the outcome of Russia's "death-and-shoulder".
First, the central bank raised interest rates, restricted the outflow of capital, forced the export of commercial rubles to settle; second, the market shifted, sold energy to China and the Middle East, the European side broke and broke, this combination kick although the economy did not lie down, but is not without cost. internal consumption is weak, technology update is slow, talent outflow is serious, this is a long-term danger.
Putin did not see it, he won the fifth presidential term in 2024, the first time to replace "old-general" Shoigu, replaced by Berlousov, who is in charge of the economy as defense minister, this is a clear signal: the war to continue, but must be "accounting war", can no longer be backed by the "desired Truman" model.
But the problem is that even if the style of play is changed, the sustainability of the war is still a big question mark. It's true that Putin has an 87% support rate, but can this support rate withstand the long-term consumption of war? Will this battle be won in the end, or will it not be lost? No one dares to draw a conclusion.
Peace cannot be seen, aid is hesitant, and Putin’s timetable is getting tighter
Don’t look at the Russian army is still moving forward now, taking the major towns like Avdeievka, but the course of the war is not entirely determined by Russia. Western aid, although the total is astonishing, the US $ 61 billion, the European Union € 50 billion, can be carried out in a wave of threefold, ammunition delays, Congress mess, European divisions, all this makes the Ukrainian front more and more tight.
The Russian side insists that it must be “based on reality”, that is, that Crimea and Donbass belong to Russia, and also demands that Ukraine do not join NATO and remain neutral.
In this deadlock, whoever holds on for a long time has the right to speak, but just like playing cards, sitting at the card table for a long time may not win, but those who stand up first must have nothing.
Today's Russia, on the surface, is "economic collapse, military progress, high popular support", but underneath the hidden risk is one bigger than one, the military consumption is huge, fiscal pressure continues, international isolation intensifies, Putin although still sitting on the table, but his code is decreasing a little.
Conclusion:
War is not a short run, it is a marathon. Putin can still run now, but the pace is slow, the breathing is rough, the people around him change, the road ahead is longer. Every day is not to burn $20 billion, but a little to consume the endurance of a regime, the backbone of a war. The future peace, will not come easily, but the cost of war, has been written into history at a moment.
reference
"The determining factors of whether the war in Ukraine can come to an end in 2025" BBC Chinese Paul Adams
Kiev: War spends 1.2 billion euros a day
"US think tank reveals the number of casualties in Ukraine and Russia" Public Television News Network