On September 22, the Election Management Commission of the President of the Japanese People's Party issued an announcement that a total of five people were registered to participate in the current election of the President of the Japanese People's Party - the Minister of Agriculture and Forestry Aquaculture, Xiao Jing, the former Minister of Economic Security, Cao市早苗, the Cabinet Chief House Officer, Lin Feng Jing, the former Minister of Economic Security, Little Lin Eagle, and the former Chief Executive of the People's Party, Momoi Aging.
According to a national poll conducted by Asahi Shimbun from 20th to 21st, when asked "Who is most suitable to be the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party", sanae takaichi ranked first, with 28% of supporters, followed by Koizumi Shinjiro, with a support rate of 24%. If limited to Liberal Democratic Party supporters, 41% of the respondents support Koizumi Shinjiro and 24% support takaichi sanae.
On the 22nd, five candidates made generous statements under the banner of "#Change the People's Party".The People's Party has lost more than half of its seats in both houses, whether to expand the coalition regime framework and how to cooperate with the opposition party became the focus of debate.
“The support of the self-government party is based on two: one is traditional conservatives, the other is the neoliberal right wing.”The Japanese sociologist, professor of the University of Early Rizda,Kenji Hashimoto said recently in receipt of the news (www.thepaper.cn) that “the stone-breaking regime has lost both a part of the neoliberal right-wing supporters, but also a part of the traditional conservative supporters, and the seats of the self-government party have been greatly reduced.”
After the "one-party monopoly" situation was broken, there was a fragmentation trend in Japanese politics, under the influence of increasing right-wing conservation, the uncertainty of domestic and foreign policy rose. At the same time, the political turmoil, the gap between the poor and the rich in society increased, and the aging of young people increased. Times news agency on 22nd that the pressing issues such as high prices, rice and other issues accumulated, and the Japanese people issued an urgent call "we hope to see a bright future", asking the new president to take action as soon as possible.
Long-term attention to the changes in Japan's social class structure, especially focusing on poverty, class consolidation and social mobility issues, has published "New Japanese Class Society", "Collapse of the Middle Stream", "Women's Class" and other books. In his interview, he said that today Japan's "new class society" has formed, non-formal workers make up the "underlying class", and therefore a huge poverty group.
The “black hole” of Japan’s lower classes
News: According to your research, with the rise of neoliberalism, the gap in Japanese society has solidified and completely transformed from a “100 million total middle class” society (also known as the “popular middle class”) to a “class society”.
The opportunity for the transformation was approximately in the second half of the 1970s to about the 1980s, because the mid-1970s high economic growth ended, the demand for labor was shrinking, and enterprises no longer employed a large number of employees, so that the poor conditions would be unemployed, or had to engage in very low-wage jobs, such as low-skilled, women or middle-class entry, the gap began to expand.
After that, the process of globalization advanced. In Japan, in order to save labor costs, the proportion of informal employees increased, and the gap between the rich and the poor further widened. Even so, due to the bubble economy from the second half of 1980s to around 1990s, the number of poor people did not increase significantly. Until the bubble economy collapsed and the economy deteriorated, the number of informal employees increased sharply, resulting in the "bottom class".
Therefore, there are four classes in Japan today: the capitalist class (managers, directors), the new middle class (professional skilled positions, management positions, etc.), the formally hired working class (sales, service, manufacturing, construction, etc.) and the underlying class of informal workers.
What problems has the emergence of the “bottom-class” brought to today’s Japanese society, especially in the context of post-New Corona economic downturn and the devaluation of the yen.
The biggest problem is the aging of young children, and the “lower class” cannot get married and have children because of economic difficulties, the unmarried rate of this class is 69.2%, much higher than other classes, and the divorce rate is also high. The reason is the double factor overlap, first of all is that the Japanese society as a whole is increasingly difficult to feel the benefits of getting married, and raising children needs to spend a lot of money, and many people think “not necessarily to get married” and “not necessarily to have children”.
At the same time, the rise of the “lower class” means that the poverty rate has risen, and according to the latest statistics, Japan’s poverty rate has already surpassed the United States.
Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the “Abbé Economy”, advocating bold monetary policy, flexible fiscal policy, and a growth strategy for activating private investment. After that, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the “new capitalism”, promising growth and a good cycle of distribution. After Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office, he promised to raise average income to wage increases that exceeded inflation. Did the economic policies of the Japanese government improve the gap between rich and poor to some extent, thereby alleviating the problem of younger children’s ageing?
Kenji Hashimoto: Not at all. The government centered on the Liberal Democratic Party has no intention of narrowing the gap and eradicating poverty, and has never formulated and implemented policies aimed at narrowing the gap.
Although some policies have been put forward to prevent unmarriage, they all go in the wrong direction and are completely ineffective. For example, there are policies that create places for young people to meet and give them the opportunity to get to know the opposite sex. But the “underclass” doesn’t get married because of economic difficulties and difficulty in getting married. Even if they meet a person with a heart, it doesn’t mean that they can get married smoothly.
And as the government grants children allowances, the amount is increasing.But because of children's allowances, people who are born with the idea of childbirth, are those who have been married, and those who can't get children's allowances, so such a policy is fundamentally ineffective.
The Paper: In your book New Class Society, you pointed out that the "bottom class" is becoming a "black hole". Can you explain what this phenomenon is?
Bridgeport: First, it’s hard to get out of the “bottom class” once it’s done, because Japanese companies still tend to recruit graduates as regular employees, while those who once became informal employees such as freelancers are difficult to recruit.
However, although the “lower class” itself has a low fertility rate, this class has alwaysined a certain size, because it continues to inhal the population from other classes. The higher fertility rate among other classes is the “formally hired working class” (sales, service, manufacturing, construction, etc.) and the “new middle class” (doctors, lawyers, etc. need specialized knowledge skills positions, management positions, etc.), their children will flow into the “lower class”, so it is a “black hole”.
The “lower class” is extremely anxious about the future of life, and is clearly in a state of no hope. Even if the “lower class” entered a company to become a formal employee, salaries are much lower than those who graduated.
The support of the Democratic Party will continue to decline.
According to Japanese media polls, the proportion of non-party classes in Japan is increasing, and the people's basis of the original People's Party has been "liquidized".
Kenji Hashimoto: It is the "capitalist class" who is most actively involved in politics. Specifically, the number of large business operators is very small, and more of them are operators of small and medium-sized enterprises. Many of them have joined the support club of Liberal Democratic Party politicians or are members of the Liberal Democratic Party themselves.
The “New Middle Class” is highly educated and has political knowledge, so there are relatively many people who participate in the government. The “Working Class” is less concerned about politics than the “New Middle Class”, and about two-thirds of people have joined the trade union. The trade unions generally participate in political activities, mainly supporting opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party, the National Democratic Party, etc. Therefore, a part of the “Working Class” is involved in politics through the trade union.
The "old middle class" was originally a very active class in politics, and during the 1980s, the "old middle class" had a higher support rate for the self-government party, when farmers were organized through agrarian associations, and store operators supported the self-government party through organizations such as the Town Hall or the Store Street.
The Paper: As you listed, in the past, different groups expressed their demands through political parties. The Liberal Democratic Party once had the support of many industry groups, which was one of the factors supporting its long-term governance. However, in the Senate election in July this year, some supporters of the Liberal Democratic Party went to the participating parties and the National Democratic Party. How have the supporters of the LDP changed in recent years?
Kenji Hashimoto: From an earlier point of view, the Liberal Democratic Party lost to the Democratic Party in the House of Representatives election in 2009 and was taken away from power. After that, the Liberal Democratic Party was considered right-leaning and conservative. In order to emphasize the differences with the Democratic Party regime, the Liberal Democratic Party began to constantly propose such policies as amending the Constitution, strengthening Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan, and neoliberal policies.
The self-government party regained power in 2012, but still continued the conservative, right-wing line, which began with Prime Minister Abe, and continued to Prime Minister Shaytan.
In my opinion, the support base of the LDP is twofold: one is the traditional conservative and the other is the neoliberal right. The former has a large number of people, while the latter has a small number. Traditional conservatives, as the traditional line of the Liberal Democratic Party, support amending the Constitution and strengthening the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan. However, they were originally centered on small and medium-sized enterprises and self-employed people, so they supported narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor. And the neoliberal right is some people who are further right than the LDP as a whole, and they think it doesn't matter even if the gap widens.
Compared with traditional conservative supporters, the Liberal Democratic Party attaches more importance to the neoliberal right wing and continues to respond to its policy demands. However, the traditional conservative side is dissatisfied that the Liberal Democratic Party is not committed to narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and helping the weak. Despite this, many traditional conservatives still vote for the Liberal Democratic Party because there are no other similar political parties to choose from.
In contrast to the self-government government continued by Abe during the period of the Sharp government, he would listen to the opposition party's opinions and not force the self-government party's policy to advance, in this sense amending the Abe line, but did not go deeper to realize narrowing the gap between poor and wealthy.
On the other hand, the neo-liberal right believes that the Sharp government has weakened the Abe line, and therefore the will to support the Democratic Party has also decreased.
Then, in this year’s Senate elections and last year’s House elections, a portion of the neoliberal right began to keep a distance from the rocky regime that revised Abe’s line, disappointed by it, and turned to voting for the Senate.
At the same time, the traditional conservatives believe that even the ruling stone, still will not adopt policies to narrow the gap between the poor and the rich and benefit the general public, so voted in favour of the amendment of the constitution and also committed to narrowing the gap between the poor and the rich National Democrats.
The Paper: From the polls in this year's Senate election, it can be observed that the supporters of participating parties are not only young people, but also people between the ages of 40 and 60. Does this indicate that groups on the neoliberal right are expanding, or that right-wing populism is expanding its scope?
Kenji Hashimoto: It's hard to tell whether the neoliberal right-wing group has expanded, but this group has become more clearly visible. They are mainly highly educated and high-income people, and most of them are men. They advocate being tough on China and South Korea, and do not agree with accepting more foreigners. In fact, the Liberal Democratic Party government still attaches importance to diplomatic relations with China and South Korea, and continues to accept foreigners, so the neoliberal right wing is dissatisfied with this. At this point, the emergence of participating parties catered to their needs, so the neoliberal right wing went to the rally to show support, and this group surfaced.
Self-Democratic Party presidential elections are about to be held on October 4, if later more far-right politicians rule, will the self-Democratic Party's previously lost supporters return?
Bridgeport: I think there will be a partial return, but most will not. This time in the “downstone” operation, the core figures demanding early presidential elections are members of the former Abe, who are the neoliberal right wing. If politicians who continue the Abe line and the neoliberal right wing become the president of the self-government party, a part of the neoliberal right wing may return to the self-government support camp, but there will still be a lot of people who continue to support the party.
And if a neo-liberal right-wing leader becomes prime minister, the traditional conservatives will completely abandon the Democratic Party, and the party’s support rate will decline further.
In order to rescue the supporters of the neoliberal right wing, will the position of the Self-Democratic Party in the future significantly turn to the right?
Bridgeport: There are a variety of people within the Democratic Party, not all of them are neoliberal right wing. Before the rocky regime, neoliberal right wing dominated the mainstream within the Democratic Party. But in last year’s House elections and this year’s Senate elections, several candidates representing the neoliberal right wing failed to vote. So it is difficult for the Democratic Party to immediately become a neoliberal right-wing-centered political party.
If a politician representing the neo-liberal right wing came to power, such as Ho Chi Minh, she would not be able to turn the self-government party into a colourful neo-liberal right wing. Because there are always some people in the party who have strong opinions like石破茂, the self-government party cannot fully follow the one-way line of the neo-liberal right wing.
Does that mean whether right-wing politicians get to power or the middle party get to power, will they face a loss of voters?
The situation facing the self-government party is very severe and there is a possibility of dividing into parts that support the neoliberal right as a basis and parts that support traditional conservation as a basis.
Japanese Left Party
What is the relationship between class and political positions in Japan?
Kenji Hashimoto: In Japan, until around 1980, there was always a strong relationship between class and political position. At that time, the "capitalist class" and "old middle class" (self-employed, self-employed) supported the Liberal Democratic Party, while the "working class" and "new middle class" supported the opposition party.
But this relationship began to weaken from around 1980 and continues to this day.Now there are still more people in the “capitalist class” and “old middle class” who vote for the Democratic Party, but the gap with other classes is smaller.
From the point of view of political correlation, the most characteristic is the “lower class”, which most of them do not support political parties. Neither support the Democratic Party nor support the opposition.
The Paper: The "bottom class" is developing as a "black hole". What impact will this have on Japan's political structure or elections?
“The lower classes” are about to peak in numbers, and they themselves are negative about political participation. They don’t vote much, so the political ecology is difficult to change.
If we want to change current politics, we need a party that meets the demands of the “bottom class” and reflects it in the political party. If such a party arises, the people of the “bottom class” will also start to care about politics and vote, which will change the current political landscape.
Now it is not entirely without attempts to improve the situation of the “bottom class” and for the “bottom class”, but the power is weak. If we take an example, it is the Japanese Communist Party and the new election group. But the organizational strength of the Japanese Communist Party is constantly weakening, and the strength of the new election group is still far from sufficient.
If the Republic of Japan and the Shinsengumi can take an opportunity to strengthen their strength, or if a similar powerful political party appears, Japanese politics will change.
You mentioned that traditional leftist parties like the Communist Party of Japan are weakening, and you can see the strength of emerging right-wing parties increasing.
According to the situation of my research, many liberals are in the lower class, they tend to have little education, weak economic strength, so it is difficult to make a strong voice. The neoliberal right wing is mostly high-educated, high-income people, can contribute political money, and there is also a higher right to speak.
It is very difficult for the self-government party to become stronger because it has always put forward policies that are beneficial to the rich, and it is very difficult for the political party to emphasize the weak. Only when the liberals have more power and financial strength, can the left party be promoted to become strong.
The vast majority of the Japanese Communist Party rallies and lectures were held by the elderly, with few young people.
Before World War II, the left-wing Socialist Party of Japan was once very powerful. That was because the trade unions at that time were strong and had the support of Kochi people. Now the union is weaker. It is also difficult for the Japanese Communist Party to gain support from those young and wealthy people.