October 10 is a big day in North Korea – the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Labour Party North Korea has solemnly announced that it will hold a grand celebration on this day.
From the point of view of time, the 80th anniversary is not only an important commemoration, but also overlaps the background of "eight major receivers, nine major generals", so the outside world generally judges, The scale of this military parade is likely to exceed that of the past, and it is even expected to become the biggest since Kim Jong-un took office.
Yonhap News Agency also shares the same view. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency quoted government sources as saying that since the beginning of July, satellites have captured vehicles and equipment suspected to be standard coach queues and mobile launch pads over the military parade training ground near Merrill Lynch Airport in Pyongyang, and further pointed out that the military parade may be held at night.
At present, the outside world is extremely concerned about, In addition to the scale of the parade, there are also countries that will be invited to attend.
Korean media said that Pyongyang has sent invitations to leaders of many countries since the beginning of the year, and among them, the invitation letters sent to China and Russia are undoubtedly the heaviest.
Why do you say that? Because for North Korea, this is not only a ceremony of "showing muscles", but also a competition of "diplomatic field". Whether we can invite heavyweight international guests is directly related to the gold content and international influence of the military parade 。 In other words, who stands on the rostrum is more critical than how many tanks have been driven on the field.
As is well known, the core of North Korea's diplomacy is "back to the great powers".In the current international situation, China and Russia are naturally Pyongyang's best friends who want to stand by their side.
At present, the number of Russian attendees has been determined. Russia Deputy Chairman of the Federal Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, was present on behalf of Moscow.In contrast, what sort of lineup China will send is a more suspicious question, and also more of the attention of the outside world.
In particular, Kim Jong-un just finished his visit to China, took part in the 93rd parade, and debuted alongside the Chinese-Russian head of state. North Korea naturally hopes that China will "exchange courtesy" and send the highest-quality delegation at its most important festivals.
For North Korea, if it is possible to see China and Russia appear side by side on the table, it will not only greatly boost North Korea's temper in the international community, but also release a clear signal to the outside: North Korea is not isolated, it has a reliable "great power backing".
In terms of etiquette, Chinese representatives were present, almost on the plate.As traditional friendly neighbors of China and the DPRK, Kim Jong-un has just visited China, so China naturally has to respond. But the important thing is: who will go?
From the real point of view, The possibility of China’s presence is not very large.The reason is simple: September to December is the busiest diplomatic season of the year, and the APEC, G20 and other international summits are ongoing. In such a tense context, drawing specifically a few days to Pyongyang and raising it to the specification of a “state visit” is almost unrealistic.
Therefore, the more likely programs are: China has sent a high-quality delegation.For example, leaders at the level of deputy prime ministers, and may even be members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo. This arrangement can not only show China's attention, but also avoid the embarrassment of "time conflict".
From a Chinese perspective, the North Korean parade itself is not the focus. Really worrying is the re-interaction between the DPRK and China at this point.Before Kim Jong Un’s visit to China, China had issued a signal of “willingness to strengthen strategic communication with the DPRK.” This is tantamount to a "return visit", which reflects the reciprocity and stability of China-DPRK relations.
Moreover, in the context of the current turbulence on the peninsula, the appearance of Chinese representatives at the Pyongyang presidency table is itself a strategic gesture. The aim is to remind stakeholders that the peninsula issue should not be bypassed by China, let alone by attempting to isolate North Korea.
In the end, China’s core interests lie inining peace and stability on the peninsula. As long as there is no turmoil and no war, China can take the initiative.