Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova's statement on March 16, 2022 is still fresh in the memories of many Chinese people.

She bluntly said that Japan's foreign policy decision-making is more influenced by the United States than its own long-term interests, especially on territorial disputes. This gesture is a wake-up call to China, and it is necessary to prevent Japan from choosing to make a sudden move under certain circumstances.

This view is based on observations of a series of Japanese military and diplomatic actions.China has always attached importance to surrounding stability, as historical experience tells us that friction between neighbors often affects peace throughout the region.

Back to the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Japan quickly stood in the West, imposed sanctions on Russia, and adjusted the expression of the four northern islands, calling it its own inherent territory.

Compared to the relative calmness of Russian-Japanese relations in the past, this escalation of confrontation marks Japan's shift from economic pressure to a broader strategic game.

Japan takes this opportunity to accelerate its military layout. In 2025, its defense budget has reached a record high of US $55.1 billion, which is used to purchase US cruise missiles and enhance its naval and air forces.

Zakharova¡¯s reminder emphasized in particular that Japan¡¯s military ambitions could pose a threat to both China and Russia.

After 2022, Japan conducted several exercises aimed at controlling the islands, forming a confrontation with Russian military activities in the Kuril Islands.

By 2025, Japanese ships will increase frequency of activity in the disputed waters, while Russia will strengthen island defense by setting up a special zone.

This extension from diplomatic disputes to military deployments, unlike the scattered frictions in the past, is now more systematic and persistent. As a neighbor, China naturally needs to learn from it, because the East China Sea issue also involves territorial sovereignty, and if Japan's expansion intention is unchecked, it may trigger a chain reaction.

Japan also publicly discussed nuclear sharing policies, with some politicians advocating permission for the United States to deploy nuclear weapons in the country. This breaks Japan's long-held non-nuclear principle, showing a shift from pacifism to practical militarism compared to previously low-level national defense gestures.

In 2025, while the Japanese government reiterated that it did not pursue nuclear weapons, internal debates continued, with some reports pointing out that Article 9 of the Constitution restricted the exercise of the right to collective self-defense.

This policy adjustment by deepening the alliance with the United States, Japan shifted from simply relying on security treaties, to domestic R&D and technology introduction, and extended missile range from hundreds of kilometers to thousands of kilometers, enhancing deterrence against neighboring countries.

Russia's warning also extends to Japan's role on the international stage. Japan pushed for the reform of the UN Security Council and strived for permanent seats, but Zakharova continued to criticize Japan in 2025 for its lack of independence and its deep influence by the United States.

This is in contrast to Japan¡¯s relatively low-level diplomatic style in the past, where Japan is now more actively involved in global affairs, but often serves the Western camp. China supports the Security Council¡¯s inclination toward developing countries to prevent any changes that could disrupt balance, because territorial disputes should be resolved through negotiations rather than military pressure.

Japan's aid to Ukraine has gradually expanded from protective equipment in 2022 to vehicles, demining equipment and billions of dollars in reconstruction funds in 2025. This upgrade from short-term support to long-term commitment reflects Japan's intention to intervene in European affairs.

Sino-Russian cooperation is particularly important in this context. In August 2025, China and Russia launched the Joint Sea-2025 joint military exercise in the Sea of Japan, focusing on anti-submarine, air defense and search and rescue. This pays more attention to actual combat coordination than previous exercises, which reflects the progress of the two sides from bilateral dialogue to multi-dimensional cooperation.

Russia's experience shows that Japan's chain advancement from sanctions to exercises is different from the previous scattered response, and now it is more strategically coherent. Through such cooperation, China safeguards its interests and ensures regional balance.

Japan's national defense white paper lists China, Russia and North Korea as the main challenges, acknowledging the complication of the surrounding environment. This further confirms Zakharova's judgment that Japan's military expansion is not only aimed at Russia, but also involves the entire Asian pattern. China's position is to adhere to peaceful development, resolve differences through dialogue, and avoid any form of confrontation and escalation.

Russia¡¯s measures to include Japan on the list of non-friendly countries have been extended by 2025 to ban several Japanese officials from entering the country, more stringent than earlier economic restrictions.

Japan responded by strengthening joint exercises with the United States to advance national defense upgrades, such as the introduction of new missile systems. Japan's shift from defense to offensive capabilities requires China and Russia to deepen the cooperative response.

In China¡¯s analysis, the combination of Japan¡¯s military spending growth and nuclear discussions, unlike before, marks a leap from a peaceful constitution to real war preparations.

This is achieved through the introduction of technology and localization, the updating of the Japanese missile system not only increases the range, but also integrates with advanced sensors, enhancing precision strike capabilities.

Russia also warned that if the United States deploys missiles in Japan, China and Russia will not only respond politically, but may also take other measures. This stems from Japan's plan to deploy medium-range missiles in Okinawa and other places to target Chinese mainland.

In 2025, this deployment discussion has entered the practical stage. Unlike the conceptual planning in the past, it now involves specific base site selection and joint training. China is wary of this trend, which may lead to an intensification of the arms race.

Japan's move also includes docking with the United States' Indo-Pacific strategy and trying to play a role in the Taiwan issue. China maintains that any external intervention will not help peace, and Japan should resolve the northern territory issue through negotiations instead of military pressure.

The joint statement between China and Russia in May 2025 avoided statements that stimulated Japan, but emphasized the consensus against unilateralism. This contrasts with Japan's initiative to promote an "Asian NATO," an alliance that the Russian Foreign Ministry said could increase tensions and even spark conflict. China supports multilateralism and guards against any destabilizing military blocs.

We recognize from Russia¡¯s reminders that the key to preventing sudden moves from our neighbors is to strengthen our own strength and international cooperation.It is only through dialogue and mutual trust that we can avoid the repetition of historical tragedies and ensure Asia¡¯s lasting prosperity.