The contents of this article are written with authoritative materials and personal opinions. The source of the literature has been marked at the end of the article, so please know.
In this world, you often guess the beginning of many things, but you can't guess the result.
On August 19, the White House in Washington, D.C., the talks between U.S. President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky were held in the middle, and Trump suddenly left the venue to call the Kremlin.
Forty minutes later, he brought back a news that surprised everyone present. Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed that the US military would enter Ukraine under the name of "peacekeeping force" and was willing to negotiate face to face with Zelensky.
On the surface, this is a major victory for U.S. diplomacy, but in an in-depth analysis of Putin’s strategic layout, several international experts pointed out that this could be a well-designed Russian game.
Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, believes that,At present, the international order is undergoing profound changes, and the strategic contraction of the United States has provided Russia with a new window of opportunity.
Putin’s “concessions” are carefully analyzed.He agreed to the US military stationing in Ukraine, but limited the scope of peacekeeping to buffer zones in Russian-controlled areas such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and prohibited the carrying of heavy weapons.
In this way, the Russian army still has absolute military superiority on the border, while NATO troops have become "hostages" of Russian-controlled territory.
In terms of territory, Putin demanded that Ukrainian troops withdraw from the remaining 30% of the Donetsk province in exchange for Russia’s no longer forced full annexation of Helsinki and Zaporozhye.
Donetsk is a strategic passage to the hinterland of Ukraine. This arrangement allows the Russian army to fully control the Donbas mining area and the Black Sea corridor.
In exchange for the legalization of the results of the battlefield, Putin made the most aspiring “fire-fire promise” by the West.What seems to be Russia's "losing" compromise is actually Putin's accurate calculation of exchanging face for lining.
Since the Trump administration took office, Ukrainian policy has been repeatedly unconventional.
In July, U.S. Defence Secretary Hegerseth unilaterally suspended military aid to Ukraine without coordination from the White House, causing equipment to remain in Poland.
The Trump administration’s foreign policy highlights four dangerous characteristics.Forcing “strategic fraud” to disregard international rules, accelerating the collapse of international prestige, “pushing” Europe to transfer responsibility, and “strategic vague” Russia into a deadlock.
Such strategic speculation and vague decisions have made it difficult for the United States to formulate a sustained and effective policy in the Ukraine crisis.
As Europe’s 26 countries jointly set up Ukrainian aid forces ready to support Ukraine, Putin responded with only four words: “Entry into the country and fight.”
In conjunction with the Black Sea Fleet exercises and nuclear deterrence, this seemingly epic "European Army Show" was directly blown up.
The “paper solidarity” of the European Union has been struck, exposing the “imaginary separation” within the Western camp.
Behind Putin's tactical adjustment is the systemic pressure facing the Russian economy.
In July, the Central Bank of Russia data showed that the size of enterprise payments fell to the lowest in five years, food prices rose by 28 per cent, and 2.8 million youth and youth entered the army resulted in a manufacturing labor gap of 45 per cent.
A deadlier blow came from Trump's energy sanctions.On August 6, the United States imposed a 25% tariff on India, threatening to cut off Russia’s biggest buyer.
India accounts for 35 percent of Russia’s total oil exports, and if India succumbed, Russia would lose 4.5 million barrels of exports per day, with energy revenue shrinking by 70 percent.
At this time, Putin has shown flexibility on the Ukrainian issue, practically in exchange for economic breathing space with territorial codes.
An analyst close to the Kremlin admitted in private that the battlefield could last for months, but that domestic livelihoods could not wait.
Putin’s strategic vision may have gone beyond the battlefield in Ukraine.During the closed-door talks in Alaska, he explicitly called for the establishment of a “China-US-Russia tripartite supervision framework” with China as a fair arbitrator for the implementation of the agreement.
This pattern could be replicated to hotspots such as the Korean Peninsula and the Middle East, reshaping the rules of global conflict mediation.
The Trump administration is currently facing three major political, debt, social and racial crises.Wu noted that the U.S. system determined that the president would only think about solving his current concerns with money after being elected, namely borrowing debt, and rarely worry about it.
The collapse of many countries in history has resulted in economic collapse due to financial difficulties.
As America’s strategy contracts, the international community will gradually adapt to the world of “post-American hegemony.”Countries and regions such as China, Russia, India, Europe and Brazil will work together to build a new international governance mechanism.
In this game of great powers, Ukraine is the biggest loser.Trump sold $100 billion in weapons to Ukraine during the Washington talks, at the expense of the European Union, and asked Ukraine to acquiesce in territorial changes.
Zelensky faces a dilemma.If the agreement is accepted, it is necessary to give up the sovereignty of Donbass; if it is refused, the United States will cease to supply weapons, and the Ukrainian army has less than 200 tanks in service, even the defense is difficult to follow.
After Ukraine abandoned its nuclear program in 1994, Russia, the United States and Britain guaranteed its territorial security, but the Crimea incident in 2014 proved that such commitments were like waste paper.
As Western negotiators began to discuss post-war reconstruction, airstrikes on the streets of Kiev were still sounding.
In the chess game of great powers, The fate of small countries is often not determined by their own efforts, but easily changed by the red line of power.
The international order is experiencing the most profound change since the end of the Cold War.
With the strategic shrinking of the United States, European allies try to find their own position, some improve relations with Russia, some hold the American thighs, and some such as France and Germany manage to strategic autonomy.
Putin’s strategic layout is far from over.While U.S. troops may enter Ukrainian territory, the space for action is strictly restricted.
Emerging forces such as Russia and China are building a new international governance mechanism and rewriting the international order dominated by the United States step by step.
The Ukrainian battlefield is just the first step, and the bigger chess squad is still behind.
References:
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