Who could have imagined that Saudi Arabia and Pakistan suddenly signed a defense agreement “one side attacked, two countries invaded” and gave India a military?
On September 9, Israel silently bombed the capital of Qatar, Doha, and killed five Hamas leaders.
What chills Middle Eastern countries about this incident is the attitude of the United States: it didn't stop it beforehand, didn't protect it at the time of the incident, and shirked responsibility afterwards. However, navigation data showed that the U.S. military was afraid that the Israeli military would not have enough engine oil, and even sent tankers to Israeli fighter jets. This incident made the Middle Eastern kingdoms "chill in their backs".
As a result, these Sunni countries in the Middle East began to seek security guarantees other than the United States. On September 17, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) and the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs simultaneously officially announced that the two countries signed the Common Strategic Defense Agreement in Riyadh.
The clause in the agreement, "third-party attacks counting aggression against both countries", is internationally predicted how India will respond - after all, when Pakistan and Turkey cooperate in 2024, India called the ambassador to pressure.
But what is surprising is that the response of the Indian Foreign Ministry on September 18 was soft, saying only to "study the security impact" and not even hard words, which is surprising.
India does not want to be hard, it is economically bound to death by Saudi Arabia, it is not hard at all. Saudi Arabia's trade in 2024 is $418.8 billion, while Saudi Arabia and Pakistan only more than $3 billion, less than 10 times.
More importantly, the energy vitality is stuck in the hands of Saudi Arabia: 67% of India's crude oil comes from the Gulf, 18% of which is given by Saudi Arabia. According to data by the Indian Treasury Ministry in early September, if India and Saudi Arabia split the oil, they would have to premium 15% to buy elsewhere, direct inflation rose by 1.2 percentage points, and the economic recovery slowed at least half a year.
So it’s equivalent to Saudi Arabia “rooted” in India’s economy, so India can’t do it even less.The Saudi sovereign fund also holds a 5% stake in India’s trust industry, and the Sun invested $10 billion in new energy projects in the state of Gujarat.
[Response of the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the Basha Mutual Defense Agreement]
India is Saudi Arabia’s second-largest drug supplier, accounting for 35% of the market, earning more than $3 billion a year.So Saudi Arabia has a few economic locks, which India dares to tear the face?
Saudi Arabia's mediation value, but also India can not lose the bottom line.India is up against the old wrongdoers every time, Saudi Arabia is the key "mongers".
In April 2025, more than 20 people were killed in the conflict in Kashmir, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal called the foreign ministers of the two sides, discussed the ceasefire plan to hold.
If India turns face to face with Saudi Arabia because of the Saudi agreement, and there will be further conflict, India will not have a third party to speak, only to fall into isolation.
And India also understands that this agreement is not for itself at all. The agreement was signed on the eighth day after Israel bombed Qatar, and it was obviously Saudi Arabia's counterattack.
The Saudi side has also stated in advance that the agreement is "strengthen the defense coordination of the Islamic State, not targeting specific countries". and Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is a decades old relationship, Pakistan's biggest gold owner is Saudi Arabia this is almost the whole world knows, so to see this, India naturally does not commit to find themselves unhappy.
After all, the Modi government's unexpected moderation is the helpless choice after the settlement of the account.Economically relying on Saudi oil supply, relying on Saudi investment, diplomatically also relying on Saudi mediation to avoid isolation, and safely confirming that they are not the target, there is no other way but to soften.
Now India is also secretly thinking of ways to negotiate liquefied natural gas agreements with Russia, Brazil, and Australia, in order to rely less on Gulf energy. But everyone in the industry knows that the infrastructure construction and negotiations of energy cooperation will take at least two or three years, and it will be useless in the short term. After all, the paper agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has laid a nail that cannot be pulled out in India's layout in the Middle East.