Preliminary
The international situation is changing too quickly. India, which has almost turned its face to the United States, seems to have returned to the good with the United States, and South Korea, which previously embraced the United States, now has to embrace Beijing.
In just two days, China's two important neighbors, India and South Korea, made the opposite decision, which was not a coincidence, but a "stand-up" trial of regional countries in the context of the Sino-American game.
Modi said not to choose sides, but it seems that he is leaning towards the United States again!
The relationship between the United States and India could almost be described as a "break" some time ago, but on September 16th, Trump and Modi had a phone call. Trump's attitude towards Modi changed dramatically, and he also said that the previous 50% tariff can be negotiated.
This dramatic shift, the answer is not complicated, and the United States does not want to push India too far, but does not want to make it too “free.”
India can see very clearly, but it has a lot of cards in its hands, on the one hand, China, in 2025 China-India trade volume has exceeded hundreds of billions of dollars, only on this data, the economic account can not be confused.
On the other hand, Russia, its oil is cheap and stable, accounting for 38% of India's total oil imports, the United States is unwilling to start provoking, saying India's purchase of Russian oil is "not cooperating", but the problem is that the United States itself is also talking with India about technological investment, industry chain transfer, which can pull on the side, and pressure on the side.
So Modi just came up with a trick, “You hit you, I’ll buy it,” and said in his mouth that he was willing to talk, and in action did not stop the ship from importing oil from Russia.
Trump had a phone call with Modi on the occasion of his birthday. By the way, he talked about "big events" such as tariffs and investment. It seemed to be diplomatic etiquette, but it was actually a "strategic step". Both sides wanted to see what the other party wanted and what they could give.
For India, this is not a bailout, but a maximization of profits, it does not want to be just America's "friend", nor does it want to completely turn the face with China, it needs a position that can both make money and have the right to speak.
So, no matter how much pressure the United States puts, India will continue to maintain economic cooperation with China and Russia, only to speak more smoothly and act more cautiously.
Unlike India, South Korea seems to really embrace China, and on September 17, South Korea's foreign minister, Zhao Zhao, visited Beijing, Zhao Zhao is not a temporary initiative, but "intolerant".
At the beginning of September, the United States suddenly took action against Korean enterprises in the United States, one assault inspection, hundreds of people were taken away, shocked Seoul, this is not the ordinary law enforcement, but the naked "downway", after which, the South Korean government finally realized that relying on the United States alone, is not necessarily safe, but may be "bite a bit".
This is not over, the U.S. has proposed that South Korea to get $350 billion to invest, but the conditions are harsh, to say it is, the money you get out, the profit I get.
As a result, South Korea began to re-examine its relations with China. According to the data, The bilateral trade volume in 2024 reached $3,280,8 billion, an increase of 5.6% compared to the same year, and China has been South Korea’s largest trading partner for 21 consecutive years.
The attractiveness of the Chinese market has not diminished, but is getting stronger and stronger, especially in key areas such as semiconductors and new energy. China is not only a buyer, but also a technical partner.
On September 17, the South Korean Foreign Minister personally flew to Beijing, with a clear attitude. We are not trying to "fall" to China, but to "find a balance". This visit is not only a response to the United States, but also a release of goodwill to China.
China is also pragmatic, without a big banner, but has given a practical response on the policy, such as extending the visa-free policy to South Korea, and promoting semiconductor industry chain cooperation, all of which show that China clearly sees that South Korea can not safely throw out the United States, but economically, it has begun to "rely on" the East.
This is the reality, no country is willing to be only a "subjective", even a traditional ally such as South Korea, will choose another path after being persecuted by the United States.
India is not a stop, but a way out.
These two things, if looked at alone, may be just ordinary diplomatic interactions, but put together, it seems meaningful, one flying to Beijing, one calling with Trump, seeming to go each other’s way, but essentially they are doing one thing: to find a balance between China and the United States.
The recent strategy of the United States is actually quite obvious, militarily "crying and killing", but economically actively cooling down, from the South China Sea confrontation to APEC preparation, the United States wants to knock on the side of the negotiations.
India is pulling and fighting, and South Korea is overbearing to the end. But the problem is that this method is becoming more and more unworkable. Although India's smiling face greets people, it actually knows what it is. South Korea says that its security depends on the United States, but it knows that it depends on China to earn money.
There is no such thing as "if you choose me, you will be a friend, if you don't choose me, you will be an enemy" here in China. It is more about promoting cooperation with strength and promoting stability with interests. For example, in its economic response to South Korea, it does not engage in emotional operations. Instead, it speaks with market logic and remains open to India. Even if there are differences, it is not easy to turn over the table.
The choice of neighbors is also increasingly rational, India is like a clever businessman, who gives more to talk to whom, South Korea is more like a steel wire man, repeatedly jumping between security and the economy, but this time it is stumbling on the pain point, and finally there is a test of change.
The trend in the region is also changing, in the past it was "not this is he", now it is a "multilateral layout", such as India, the middle-sized countries, not willing to be encircled by the game of great powers, such as South Korea, the traditional allies, in the face of reality also start "other oven", Asia is accelerating multipolarization, no longer around a country, but around its own interests.
The diplomatic moves of September 16 and 17 were not coincidental or isolated events, but a game of “trust, interest and reality.”The United States wants to attract people to take sides, but the means are too rude. China didn't shout slogans, but exchanged cooperation for space.
The future of Asia will no longer be the kind of “follow-through” in the past, and each country is re-calculating costs and benefits and re-judging who is the partner “worth a deeper relationship”.
What China has to do is not to compete high and low, but to play their cards well and let others take the initiative to get closer.
This geopolitical game has just been shuffled, but it is far from the end. Who can survive to the end depends not on who yells loudly, but on who can hold on and go far. Our Chinese attitude is consistent, the door to talk is open, and we will resolutely accompany the end.
Reference information: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, News