Preliminary
Late in the evening of September 18, Ukrainian dronesRussia again in precision. Volgograd Refinery, the energy giant, which processes 15 million tons of crude oil annually, was forced to stop production completely.
Since August, 17 Russian refineriesSuffer 27 rounds of attack., a cumulative annual production capacity of 80 million tons has been paralyzed, accounting for one-third of the national total. Russian gasoline prices have soared by 50%, appearing in many places Lack of fuel。
Why did the army target this? The Energy OffensiveWhat effect will it have?
One blow from thousands of miles away is guaranteed, and this missile makes it difficult for the Russian army to defend against it
Looking at the numbers, you know how powerful it is. Flamingo missilereached the range. Three thousand kilometersIt can carry a total of 1 ton of high explosive warheads, this load is ten times the previous drone.
More importantly, the cost is relatively controlled. The cost of a Firebird missile is only one-third of the cost of Western similar products, but the destruction force is not bad. Military expert Mike Ryan says that each successful Firebird missile has 1150 kilograms of warheads, which are ten times more destructive than existing U.S. drones.
This technological breakthrough did not come easily. Looking back a few months ago, the Ukrainian army's Remote attack capability.It was also questioned whether it could threaten the Russian heartland.
Things are completely different these days. The attack on Volgograd on September 18, by 1400 kmThe distance of the attack made the Russian army slow. what does this mean?
This means that the Ukrainian army already has the ability to strike precisely across most of Russia’s maps, with more than 1,000 kilometers from the Ukrainian border to Moscow, theoretically even within the range of the Kremlin.
The reaction of the Russian military explained the issue. Chief executive of Bashkoltostan, Habirov, confirmed the drone attack, but stressed that "the fire has been controlled and there are no casualties on the scene."
Volgograd Region Governor Bokenrov also said that air defense forces "successfully repelled a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack." That's what it says, but Oil refinery shut downThe facts are there. After repelling the attack, the facility was still bombed. This "success" was obviously somewhat reluctant.
The speed of technological progress is astonishing.Zelensky called "Firebird" The best missiles"And we plan to monthly production of more than 200 units by the end of the year.
Early actual combat shows that the firebird’s defense capabilities were surprising.In the Crimean tests, three missiles had two targets and only one was intercepted.
As production ramps up, Ukraine is fully capable of launching an impact on Russia's energy network Saturation strike。 By then, it would be almost impossible for the Russian army to fully defend every refinery.
The military camp did not hurt, the refinery crashed and the Ukrainian army found a deadly rib.
It is ironic enough to say that Ukraine's attacks on Russia have long focused on Military base, weapons factories, ammunition depots and other hard targets.
Although it caused some damage, it is difficult to say that it really shaken the fundamentals of the Russian war machine. These military facilities are very protective, repairable, repairable and reused.
The shift appeared in August of this year. The Ukrainian Security Agency and Special Operations Forces, after careful study, discovered an unexpected fact: refineryProbably more important than military bases, and more vulnerable.
Why do you say that? First look at protection. Military bases have complete air defense systems, underground bunkers, and various protective measures. What about refineries? The area is huge, a large number of flammable and explosive substances are stored, and the protective measures are relatively weak.
More importantly, once attacked, it is very likely to cause massive fires and violent explosions, leading to long-term shutdowns. Oil refining facilitiesIt was destroyed and could not be restored in a short time.Then look at the importance.
Oil refining capacity is directly related to the Russian military's frontline fuel supply, which is the blood of the war machine. Tanks, fighter planes, transport vehicles, which doesn't need fuel?
It also affects the national fiscal revenue. Energy exportsIt is a pillar of the Russian economy, and once refineries stop production, the entire economic chain will be impacted.The Ukrainian army's choice was quite smart. They do not engage in piecemeal harassment, but target those with an annual production capacity of over 10 million tons National level refining hubCarry out a concentrated strike.
The Saratov refinery has an annual production capacity of 5.8 million tons, the new Kuibischevsk refinery 8.3 million tons, and the Seychelles refinery 8.5 million tons, all of which are important nodes in the Russian energy system.
The Ukrainian army frequently launched massive clusters of attacks with several drones. A saturated tactic.This method makes the Russian army invincible, and even if it intercepts most of it, it can cause significant losses as long as one or two defensive lines are broken.The results are immediate.
Early in the morning of September 14, Ukraine launched a devastating strike at the Kirish refinery in Leningrad, which processed up to 17.7 million tons of crude oil annually and is the most important base for the production of finished oil in northwestern Russia.
This is Strategic wisdomThe manifestation .Rather than expending limited firepower on military targets, it is better to concentrate on striking economic lifelines and maximize strategic gains at minimal cost.
After 27 rounds of attacks in two months, one-third of Russia's refineries were completely collapsed
Data doesn't lie, since August, Ukraine has 17 Russian refineriesLaunched 27 rounds of attack., which has paralyzed Russia's annual refining capacity of approximately 80 million tons.
What does this number mean for the whole of Russia? 32%The equivalent of one-third of the oil refining capacity is completely laid.The consequences quickly appear across the entire energy chain.
Russia lost daily in August alone, Bloomberg data shows 1.1 million barrelsOf refining capacity. Faced with such a huge capacity gap, Moscow was forced to take emergency measures.
The first is a complete suspension of gasoline exports. This decision is quite painful for Russia. Energy exports have always been the main source of foreign exchange income, and the suspension of exports is equivalent to a financial breakdown.
At the same time, some diesel will be transferred domestically to alleviate the supply crisis. Even so, analyst Sergei Kaufman notes: "Even with export restrictions, the damaged capacity will still be difficult to fully meet domestic demand." The domestic market's response is more intuitive.
Russian gasoline prices this year Up to 50%This number makes ordinary people feel the cost of the war.Fuel shortages have spread from the Far East and Crimea to several important parts of Europe.
The sight of a long squad standing in front of a gas station is becoming more and more common, which was unimaginable in the former Russia. Agricultural machineryIts use is severely affected.The financial impact is equally severe.
Under the influence of falling international oil prices and frequent Ukrainian attacks on refineries, Russian oil and gas revenue continued to decline. The cumulative revenue in January-August fell by 20.5% compared to 2024, which is less than $80 billion. Reuters forecasts are less optimistic.
Russia's oil and gas revenue in September 2025 will continue to decline by 3% month-on-month in August, and further drop sharply year-on-year in September 2024 23%。If this trend continues, it will directly affect the Putin administration’s ability to finance the war.
According to the report of the International Energy Agency, Russian crude oil and fuel export revenue fell by 6.4% in August. Lowest level in two years.。What is worrisome is that the chain reaction continues.
The latest data from the St. Petersburg International Commodity Raw Materials Exchange shows that A-92 gasoline sales have fallen sharply by 21.7% recently to 15,600 tons, a new low since 2023. A-95 gasoline sales also decreased by 15.5% month-on-month, with only 12,060 tons sold. Behind these figures is what Russia's energy system is experiencing Systemic collapse。
Several drones rewrite the rules of war, and the contest between major powers enters a new era
Looking back from a historical perspective, this is indeed a turning point. Ukraine successfully pushed the battlefield from Donbas to Moscow by continuously striking Russian refineries. Financial budget table。
This is not only a military victory, but also Strategic wisdomWith low-cost drones and domestic missiles, the most core economic pillar of Russia is driven.What is impressive is the cost-effectiveness.
The cost of a drone may be only tens of thousands of dollars, and a Flamingo missile is only hundreds of thousands of dollars even with research and development costs. But what about the damage?
The construction cost of a large refinery can easily cost billions of dollars, and the loss of a day's shutdown is millions of dollars. The Ukrainian army claims that long-range strikes have caused losses to Russia this year 74 billion dollars。This asymmetric advantage is extremely rare in the history of modern warfare.
Traditional big country contests often compete for industrial production capacity, population size and resource reserves. The situation is completely different these days. Technological progress allows small countries to pose a fatal threat to the core interests of big countries. When Precision strike technology.When developed to a certain extent, the defense's advantage will decline sharply.
As the largest country in the world, Russia has hundreds of important energy facilities distributed across a vast territory.
The attacker only needs to choose the most valuable target to carry out Precision strikeYou can get huge profits.This change of offensive and defensive situation has profound historical significance.
Looking back at the period of World War II, bombers had to take a huge risk of deepening into the enemy before bombing important targets. Losses are often large, but the effect is not necessarily ideal. During the Cold War, the emergence of nuclear weapons created a balance of terror among the great powers.
and today, Remote precision technology.The popularity of China is redefining the rules of the game in the contest between great powers.As smoke billows from oil refineries and queues form at gas stations, the Kremlin's war sustainability is being tested like never before.
The power shown by this "silent sanction" may be more direct and effective than any international sanction. It may be difficult for ordinary people to imagine that just a few drones can have such a huge impact.
But this is the new characteristics of modern warfare: More accurate than size.Wisdom is better than force.Future conflict patterns may undergo fundamental changes.
Traditional large-scale military confrontation will gradually give way to precise economic strikes. Whoever can master this new type of combat capability will have an advantage in the future game of great powers.
conclusion
The success of this energy offensive has been demonstrated in modern warfare.” More accurate than size.“The new rules.
When technological progress allows small nations to strike precisely against major powers, the traditional military balance is being wiped out. Redefined。
In the face of this new form of war, how should countries adjust? Defense focus？